WPAC: TAPAH - Post-Tropical

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#41 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:51 pm

Muy rapido. From 30 knots or less to 50 knots! Anyway please changed the title of the thread to Tapah - Tropical Storm.
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#42 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:54 pm

Kind of reminds me of Francisco last year and appearance.
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Re: WPAC: 06W - Tropical Depression

#43 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:54 pm

Extreme rapid intensification to me!
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#44 Postby stormkite » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:59 pm

Nice eye now visible there was a clearly visible eye last night south of Guam on radar.

Would not like to under that very small destructive core. What affect it has on the WWB is not the issue
its the islands if any that it may affect.
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#45 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:59 pm

I guess JTWC will forecast a typhoon from this. Shear is rapidly decreasing and SSTs are warming which means this rapid intensification was possible. This has survived dry air and conditions are extremely favorable.
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 06W - Tropical Depression

#46 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:10 pm

Weather on Guam is cloudy and a few times sunny but mostly cloudy with no rain.

You never thought there would be a typhon just to the east. It's that small!


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#47 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:16 pm

Shear is really low.
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#48 Postby stormkite » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:37 pm

Breaking dvorak constraints rapid intensity. Anybody know of a Guam radar link with grids .
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Re: WPAC: TAPAH - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:53 pm

50 knots and forecast to peak at 75 knots!

Interesting read on this rapidly intensifying storm with an eye.

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH IMPROVED BANDING AROUND THE LLCC WHILE AN EYE FEATURE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM. A 272227Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME COUPLED WITH LLCC WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE MSI
LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 50 KNOTS, BASED ON THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE WHICH CAN
SEEN BOTH IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE PAST FEW MICROWAVE IMAGES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TS 06W IS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR CREATED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED DUE TO A RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID TO DEEP-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. AFTER WHICH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) PERSIST.
AFTER TAU 24, DECREASING OUTFLOW WILL HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 06W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO SPREAD AS THE TRACKERS GREATLY VARY IN THE
EXTENT OF THE NORTHWEST TURN AFTER TAU 24. NAVGEM AND GFS HAVE
SHIFTED TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK WHILE JGSM AND GFDN SHOW A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK, WHICH IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT STORM MOTION.
DUE TO THIS, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD ALONG WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#50 Postby stormkite » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:57 pm

wow sounds like it Bomb out mini Cat5 prolly on the cards here.
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#51 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:03 pm

Could this be our first major typhoon of the season? :double:
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#52 Postby stormkite » Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:51 pm

Image

Cool sat-pic nice towers.


06W TAPAH 140428 0600 13.2N 147.2E WPAC 55 982
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Re: WPAC: TAPAH - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:39 pm

Image

13.0N- 147.1E

Well the good news is that the strongest winds will be further north away from the most populated islands. Rain will be the issue here.

Closest Point of Approach:

Naval Station Guam: 137 miles
WFO Guam: 124 miles
Andersen Guam: 117 miles
Rota: 93 miles
Tinian: 50 miles
Saipan: 34 miles
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#54 Postby stormkite » Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:41 pm

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 280404
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062014
200 PM CHST MON APR 28 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM TAPAH...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN. A TYPHOON
WATCH MEANS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.9N 147.2E

ABOUT 170 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (06W)
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 147.3 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM TAPAH IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH. TAPAH IS EXPECTED
TO TURN IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY...GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL
TAPAH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND REACH TYPHOON
INTENSIFY WITHIN NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT 400 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY THIS EVENING AT 1000 PM.

$$
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Re: WPAC: TAPAH - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:51 pm

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN. A TYPHOON
WATCH MEANS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
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#56 Postby stormkite » Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:59 pm

Image
tiny core less friction over the water cranks harder.
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#57 Postby richard-K2013 » Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:13 am

I suspect that it is not just a tropical storm.
We can see the "clear" eye in this radar imagery from Guam.
Image
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Re:

#58 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:20 am

richard-K2013 wrote:I suspect that it is not just a tropical storm.
We can see the "clear" eye in this radar imagery from Guam.


yup been talking about this for hours and eye continues to wrap tighter and tighter...

I wouldn't be surprised if this gets upgraded to a typhoon by JTWC based on this. It looks stronger than 55 knots...


Image

Ocean heat content only gets higher along the path with a warm spot of 100-150 just north of saipan!
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#59 Postby stormkite » Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:38 am

When it gets better organised around the eyewall this will go ballistic. Has a ITA look about it already.

Image
Image
Good luck with the tracking cheers.





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Re: WPAC: TAPAH - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 28, 2014 3:43 am

000
WTPQ61 PGUM 280825
TCUPQ1

TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (06W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP062014
610 PM CHST MON APR 28 2014

...608 PM CHST...0808 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

AT 608 PM CHST...0808 UTC...THE EYE OF TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (06W)
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF THE GUAM WSR-88D
RADAR AT AN ELEVATION OF 24200 FEET. THE THREE-QUARTERS FILLED EYE
IS 22 MILES IN DIAMETER.

SUMMARY OF 608 PM CHST...0808 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.4N 147.4E
ELEVATION...24200 FEET

ABOUT 180 MILES EAST...090 DEGREES...OF THE GUAM RADAR POSITION OF
THE CENTER IS GOOD.

$$

ZIOBRO/EDSON



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 280606
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (06W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
406 PM CHST MON APR 28 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM TAPAH...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN.
GUAM RADAR SHOWS THE EYE OF TROPICAL STORM TAPAH MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH APPROXIMATELY 160 MILES EAST OF ROTA.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN...SAIPAN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 3 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (06W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9N...LONGITUDE 147.2E...OR ABOUT
170 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SONGSONG ROTA MP...OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SAN JOSE TINIAN MP...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
GARAPAN SAIPAN MP. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

TROPICAL STORM TAPAH HAS INTENSIFIED TO 60 MPH AND RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IT WILL LIKELY SOON BECOME A TYPHOON. HOWEVER...
WIND DATA FROM THE SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE SHOW THAT TAPAH IS A
VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXTENDING NO
FARTHER THAN 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS
EDGED SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE EAST AND WITH THE SMALL SIZE...ANY FARTHER
ADJUSTMENT WILL MAKE IT LESS LIKELY FOR EITHER SAIPAN OR TINIAN TO
GET DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. A CHANGE IN COURSE FARTHER
TO THE WEST...HOWEVER UNLIKELY...WOULD BRING NEAR TYPHOON
CONDITIONS TO THESE ISLANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE THEIR HOME OR BUSINESS
ACCORDING TO THEIR TYPHOON DISASTER PLAN AND LISTEN FOR ANY
POSSIBLE WARNINGS IF IT SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE
OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-281415-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
406 PM CHST MON APR 28 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...TINIAN AND SAIPAN...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (06W) MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST
IS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO
TUESDAY EVENING. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
AREA. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AS TAPAH
APPROACHES...DEPENDING UPON THE DISTANCE OF THE CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE SAIPAN AND TINIAN COASTAL WATERS. STRONGEST SEAS WILL BE
ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ON TUESDAY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THE TAPAH APPROACHES THE ISLANDS AROUND
NOON. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT MOVEMENT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE TO 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 13 FEET WILL QUICKLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
MORNING AS TAPAH MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. DEPENDING UPON THE
SPEED OF MOTION...SEAS AND WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND OVER NIGHT. LITTLE
INUNDATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM AND SO THE
EFFECTS ON SAIPAN AND TINIAN WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE SHORT TIME
THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLANDS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED.

...ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ALERT TO THE LATEST INFORMATION
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND FROM THE LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIAL IN SAIPAN. BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS ABOUT ANY OFF
ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS TROPICAL
STORM TAPAH MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR NEAR TYPHOON FORCE WINDS IF TAPAH VEERS CLOSER THAN
EXPECTED TO THESE ISLANDS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 7 TO 11 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
SURF EXCEEDING THESE VALUES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME...DEPENDING UPON THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM TAPAH WILL
BE WEST OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...DEPENDING UPON THE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM.

$$

EDSON/KLEESCHULTE


$$
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