EPAC: INVEST 90E

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902014.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201405061651
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2014, DB, O, 2014050612, 9999999999, , , , , 5, METWATCH, , EP902014
EP, 90, 2014050512, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1066W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2014050518, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1067W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2014050600, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1068W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2014050606, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1069W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2014050612, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1070W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[cycloneye]

[weatherwindow]

Good afternoon, Luis.....noting EPAC invest, I havent seen anything indicating tropical wave translation this season....Is that system associated with an Atlantic wave?....Any opinions...Hovmoller diagrams?

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon, Luis.....noting EPAC invest, I havent seen anything indicating tropical wave translation this season....Is that system associated with an Atlantic wave?....Any opinions...Hovmoller diagrams?

I may not be right about this but the disturbance formed from the monsoon trough/Itcz combined with the GoT gale winds that blow many times in that large body of water off Nicaragua may have caused low to form and not from a wave.

[weatherwindow]

Thanks Luis...it would help if I would read the EPAC TWD before I ask questions ....your comment spot on as usual

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDEP.shtml?

[Cyclenall]

This Invest is incredibly well organized for May 6. What was the first Invest last year in the Epac again? And another thing, Epac invests (the first few like in May and June) seem to always look amazing while in the Atlantic they very rarely look like this at this point in the TC lifecycle. Anytime of the season for the Atlantic too a lot.

I spot some nice rotation at 10N108.7W going. Diurnal maximum made this thing look awesome at sunrise per usual. It would be good to get a named storm this early to have 1 record or impressive stat under our belt already.

[Kingarabian]

Models still keen on development?

[hurricanes1234]

There we have it! Our first invest more than a week before the official start of the season. What are the models hinting on? Has it changed?

[hurricanes1234]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 1:20 PM PDT - NOW UP TO 50%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
120 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If this system wants to become the earliest-forming East Pacific tropical storm on record, it needs to consolidate quicker than it has been doing so over the past 24 hours. While wind shear is favorable now and moisture is in abundance (thanks to the MJO progressing across the region), both will become unfavorable as the system nears the coast Thursday.

[Nimbus]

50% chance of developing into a depression, maybe the season will start early this year?

[Yellow Evan]

If this system wants to become the earliest-forming East Pacific tropical storm on record, it needs to consolidate quicker than it has been doing so over the past 24 hours. While wind shear is favorable now and moisture is in abundance (thanks to the MJO progressing across the region), both will become unfavorable as the system nears the coast Thursday.

Technically, it would not as HURDAT extents to 180. But I know what you mean. I'd say it has about 24 to 36 hours to form. Seems doable, but not certain. To be honest, I don't think it has become that much more organized today.

This is the 3rd straight year we've seen a pre-season special TWO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

I believe the issue is diurnal minimum. Does anyone see this becoming a named storm?

[Yellow Evan]

I believe the issue is diurnal minimum. Does anyone see this becoming a named storm?

Perhaps, and yes, and IMO there's a solid chance it'll be a weak TS.

[hurricanes1234]

Assuming it does form, this will make it the earliest forming ever, with the exception of the one from January 1992.

[Yellow Evan]

Assuming it does form, this will make it the earliest forming ever, with the exception of the one from January 1992.

Counting CPHC AOR, no

There was also Winona 89, Hali 92, and Carmen 80. Winona formed in January, but is not HURDAT. Hali formed in late March. And Carmen crossed into the EPAC from the WPAC in April 1980, even though it's not in HURDAt either.

[hurricanes1234]

Small strong convective bursts and weak convection elsewhere, the typical look of a system at diurnal minimum.

[KatDaddy]

Its getting to that time of year again. Its looking more organized this evening. We are hoping the tropical moisture will make it NE into TX to give us some well needed rainfall.

[Yellow Evan]

Small strong convective bursts and weak convection elsewhere, the typical look of a system at diurnal minimum.

It's IMO getting better organized. Just needs convection.

[hurricanes1234]

We'll see how it goes at diurnal maximum tomorrow. That, in my opinion, should be a good determining factor of where this is going, since it won't have much time after that to develop.