EPAC: INVEST 91E

[Yellow Evan]

Same as 90E, I am sure it will bust. We shall wait until something else pops up in the next few weeks.

There is the system behind it, but it won't form probs as GFS is likely in fantasy.

[hurricanes1234]

Same as 90E, I am sure it will bust. We shall wait until something else pops up in the next few weeks.

There is the system behind it, but it won't form probs as GFS is likely in fantasy.

Unless invests begin developing properly and not falling apart unexpectedly, we will end May without a tropical cyclone.

[Yellow Evan]

Same as 90E, I am sure it will bust. We shall wait until something else pops up in the next few weeks.

There is the system behind it, but it won't form probs as GFS is likely in fantasy.

Unless invests begin developing properly and not falling apart unexpectedly, we will end May without a tropical cyclone.

That's not that unusual. Happens every other year on average. We're overdue for one, given we've had 2 years in a row of 2 May systems. Not to mention that El Nino years (not post-El Nino years like 1992) tend to have late starts and peak in August and September rather than July. Also, the season is only a few days old.

[Cyclenall]

New NHC format? No Caps anymore.

This sucks, back when I first started reading NHC stuff I thought the all caps was a neusence and hard to get used to, then I got used to it and now its going to no caps . :gimmie:

[TheStormExpert]

I'm guessing the El Niño hasn't kicked in yet or it will be a late start like many are saying?

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%-30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system
is likely to be slow to occur during the next couple of days.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

[hurricanes1234]

Less potential for development. I really don't think there will be anything from this other than some overseas showers.

[euro6208]

91E INVEST 140518 0600 9.5N 109.1W EPAC 30 1007

Winds up to 30 knots!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Although this system lacks a
well-defined center of circulation, it is still producing winds to
near gale force in the eastern portion of the disturbance.
Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next
couple of days, unless a new center reforms farther east. After
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Pasch

[hurricanes1234]

91E has a whole lot more convection and looks better overall. I wonder if it will develop sometime, because it looks vigorous right now and it seems to have merged or is in the process of merging with the area behind it. It also has better banding features. What do you all say?

Amateur opinion only.

[supercane4867]

JTWC is giving it a high chance of development with TCFA issued

[hurricanes1234]

That's strange! The TWO only has it at 20%/20%. I wonder if it is because of the winds (30 knots).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, the TWO is just too conservative to use for finding a chance for cyclonic development. Never mind, the JTWC has it at a TCFA. If the TWO will follow, we may see TD 01E later or tomorrow. Afterwards, the possibility of TS Amanda increases if the conditions are better and more favorable. However, it may only be at 55-60 knot range at the most. FOR SURE. Because of increasingly unfavorable conditions in the coming days, it would be less than 45 knots.

-------------------------------
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That's strange! The TWO only has it at 20%/20%. I wonder if it is because of the winds (30 knots).

30 kts is already at/above the threshold of a tropical depression, and we only got a 20% chance? Things in this basin are absurd too, like in the WPAC.

[hurricanes1234]

Wow, I really wasn't expecting this. The TWO says that conditions will become unfavourable soon, so I would say a peak of 35-45 knots if it does form now.

Amateur opinion only.

[Yellow Evan]

That's strange! The TWO only has it at 20%/20%. I wonder if it is because of the winds (30 knots).

30 kts is already at/above the threshold of a tropical depression, and we only got a 20% chance? Things in this basin are absurd too, like in the WPAC.

There is no wind threshold for TC status. Look at the ATL, home growns aren't usually declared till they are at 40-45 knts and have a closed LLC.

[Yellow Evan]

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves westward at
about 10 mph. Although this disturbance continues to produce
strong gusty winds, any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or so. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[hurricanes1234]

Looks crappy again. I think this after this will be "Poof!" 91E seems to be wasting our time, so it's time to start watching the models.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks crappy again. I think this after this will be "Poof!" 91E seems to be wasting our time, so it's time to start watching the models.

They don't show anything sans a fantasy GFS storm in a few days behind this.

CFS shows 3 storms in June though, but that is super long range.]

Back to this system, I'd say it goes down to 10/10 soon.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

That's strange! The TWO only has it at 20%/20%. I wonder if it is because of the winds (30 knots).

30 kts is already at/above the threshold of a tropical depression, and we only got a 20% chance? Things in this basin are absurd too, like in the WPAC.

Winds alone do not support the classification of a tropical cyclone. 91E lacks a well-defined center and organized convection. A low chance of formation seems fine to me, especially since it's lost most of its model support and atmospheric conditions will be deteriorating.