EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2014051906, , BEST, 0, 62N, 970W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2014051912, , BEST, 0, 65N, 978W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2014051918, , BEST, 0, 70N, 985W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2014052000, , BEST, 0, 75N, 991W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2014052006, , BEST, 0, 80N, 997W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 140, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 92, 2014052012, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1005W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 140, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep922014.dat

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and disorganized showers several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
generally slow development of the system over the next several
days while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like this may have an outside shot. Conditions look okay.

[Kingarabian]

I'd give a nice chance at development. Euro had this being a CAT 2 , a few days ago.

[hurricanes1234]

Latest TWO says conditions are only marginally conducive. A part of my brain is telling me this could be a repeat of 91E. However, I'm no expert!

1. A broad low pressure system, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive over the next several days, and any development
of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has dropped this system as of the 18z run.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be
only marginally conducive during the next several days, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[hurricanes1234]

If in the next few outlooks the words "but after that time, conditions should become unfavourable" then it might be a repeat. So far, it is the same as 91E because it came down from "conducive for gradual development" to "conditions are only marginally conducive". Of course I am not putting down the NHC, nor am I saying that these words mean it won't develop, but I am just remarking on how the invests thus far are failing to develop. If the conditions do not improve, then I'd personally say that the first named storm forming in June is not out of the question.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm still not sold on this either. They only give it a 20% to form outside of the day 2 window. Models aren't aggressive with this either.

[stormkite]

This system i think will be the first 64+ at 72 hours out. There appears to be a big area of monsoonal moisture on the vapor sat pic sst's are perfect and shear will be in the negative range. The dryer air looks to be to the North of the invest.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

I must say, though, it does look better tonight. Better banding and the convection is more compact and organised. I'm still not very sure it would develop, though, and I certainly agree with Yellow Evan with the possible possibility of a "poof", but I also see what stormkite is saying.

[stormkite]

I must say, though, it does look better tonight. Better banding and the convection is more compact and organised. I'm still not very sure it would develop, though, and I certainly agree with Yellow Evan with the possible possibility of a "poof", but I also see what stormkite is saying.

I think Yellow Evan may be basing his opinion on GFS modeling of the timing of the MJO just a gut feeling about that.

Myself iam looking at the actual conditions out there atm time will tell but myself i like this one for now.



.Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I must say, though, it does look better tonight. Better banding and the convection is more compact and organised. I'm still not very sure it would develop, though, and I certainly agree with Yellow Evan with the possible possibility of a "poof", but I also see what stormkite is saying.

I think Yellow Evan may be basing his opinion on GFS modeling of the timing of the MJO just a gut feeling about that.

Myself iam looking at the actual conditions out there atm time will tell but myself i like this one for now.



.Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm basing it on the GFS/CMC runs and the fact that from what I've seen, wind shear is expected to be strong. However, I'm honestly not sure if I'm looking at the right graphs. You mentioned earlier that shear looks "in the negative range". Does that mean below average or decreasing?

Edit: Looks like I figured it out. Shear looks low until 120W, and is decreasing, so it has a shot IMO, though I doubt it will become anything strong.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like slightly better conditions for now, as shear has slightly decreased. If this has the right timing of the MJO, we'll see.

[hurricanes1234]

Well convection has magically decreased as of this morning. If by this afternoon that convection fails to materialise, then I'd be leaning strongly towards no development. It looked better last night.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be
only marginally conducive during the next several days, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg

[stormkite]

RAMMB scrap the invest?

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive during the next several days, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg

[hurricanes1234]

The convection dissipated this morning but seems to have returned and looks slightly better. Could this be the start of development into a tropical cyclone?

[Yellow Evan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
marginally conducive during the next several days, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent