EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

Its at least stopped weakening. Eye is still a bit ragged on satellite but looks like she wants to rack up more ACE

[Meow]

Could a reintensification occur? According to Meow, cloud tops are cooling and pinhole eye is appearing. And I basically agree with this statement, as it is seen in the imagery.

I did not mention the pin-hole eye. I said that the eye becomes much colder, meaning a weakening trend. Now Amanda’s eye is gone.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014

Amanda has changed little during the past 6 hours, including an
intermittent eye embedded within a ragged CDO feature containing
cloud tops colder than -70C. A blend of final T-numbers and current
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT value of T6.3/122
kt, yields an average of 114 kt. Thus, the initial intensity of
Amanda has been lowered to 115 kt for this advisory.

Smoothing through the many fits and starts yields a 12-hour average
motion of 345/04 kt, which is used for the advisory motion.
Otherwise, there are no significant changes to the previous
advisory track or reasoning. Amanda is expected to move slowly
north-northwestward to northward between a broad mid-level trough
to its west and a weak subtropical ridge situated to its east over
Mexico for the next 72 hours or so. After which some slow erratic
motion is possible when the cyclone is expected to weaken into
a shallow system and become trapped within weak steering currents.
The global and regional models are in good agreement on this
developing scenario. As a result, the official forecast track is
essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and is
close to the consensus model TVCE and the FSSE model.

The deep-layer vertical wind shear across Amanda is assessed at
around 25 kt by both the GFS-based SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS, and
these strong shear conditions are expected to continue for at least
the next 36 hours. As a result, steady to rapid weakening is
forecast to begin later today, especially if significant cold
upwelling develops beneath the slow-moving hurricane. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely
follows the intensity consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 13.2N 111.6W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 14.9N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 16.1N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 16.8N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 17.1N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Is the NHC using 135 mph again?

[Meow]

Amanda now looks like a category 1 hurricane to me.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Amanda now looks like a category 1 hurricane to me.

For the most a cat 3-4 hurricane. If this were in the WPac it could be a cat 1-2.

[Yellow Evan]

The eye's caved in, but Amanda looks fairly organized. I'd say its a high end Cat 3/low end Cat 4' I highly disagree it looks like a Cat 1. It's quite pretty actually.

[Yellow Evan]

Current Amanda vs. Gustav over Cuba

[Yellow Evan]

[supercane4867]

CIMSS analysis suggest Amanda is already facing 20-30kt of shear, storms in such environment may sometimes fall apart faster than it appears

[Yellow Evan]

Amanda's becoming less organized now. I'd say it is around 105 knts, though you could argue for lower.

[Meow]

Now at 105kt, Amanda’s eye recovers with a small CDO.

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think it may have levelled off for now with that eye?

[hurricanes1234]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 262052
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014

...AMANDA RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 111.8W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AMANDA HAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY OR POSSIBLY RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AMANDA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014

After significant erosion of the deep convection in the southern
portion of the eyewall, a resurgence of convective development has
occurred in the past couple of hours, including the redevelopment
of the CDO feature and a cloud-filled eye. However, an average of
all available satellite intensity estimates indicates that Amanda
has still weakened and is now a 105-kt category 3 hurricane.

A 12-hour average motion of 335/04 kt was used for the advisory
motion, in spite of the many wobbles in the track during the past
few hours. Although the model guidance isn't quite the proverbial
squashed spider pattern that typically suggests a slow and erratic
motion, it isn't far from it. Amanda is expected to move slowly
northward into a broad weakness in the subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone during the next few days, during which time
the steering currents are forecast to collapse. While the steering
currents erode, Amanda is also forecast to become a significantly
weaker and more shallow cyclone during that time, resulting in the
cyclone meandering south of Socorro Island as a remnant low by Day
5, if not sooner. The official forecast track remains close to a
blend of the consensus model TVCE and the FSSE model.

Deep-layer shear of more than 20 kt is expected to continue to
affect Amanda for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in steady to
rapid weakening during the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and remains close to
the intensity consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 13.4N 111.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 14.8N 112.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 15.4N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 15.9N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 16.4N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 16.7N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Cyclenall]

Oceanic heat is warm due to the warm subsurface pool, so that's less of an issue. It's got another day left, then the party is over. This will fall FAST.

I thought the same but today its holding up better then I thought. Still has a faint eye this afternoon.

This makes up for all the crappy storms the Atlantic produced last year any day!

Not even close, this hurricane would have had to become 185 knots sustained, start in the far east part of the Epac, and travel all the way to the far western part of the Wpac starting in early May...for it to "make up" for the travesty that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was. In addition, become the longest lasting TC in recorded history, highest ACE, and be the longest lasting category 5 in world history. Pretty tough to make up for a whole season in the most interesting basin with a non-Atlantic TC huh?

Current Amanda vs. Gustav over Cuba

How did you come up with this comparison? Just wondering, I would have never thought of this at all. It does look similar there.

Something I haven't read much of (haven't read pages 17-23) is how the models failed to predict when this was just an Invest and TD that this would get to 135 knots at some point soon...that is significant. Only when this was a hurricane and undergoing EI that the models started sniffing out ideas but IIRC even then they all fell short...pretty crazy!!

[TheAustinMan]

Interesting convective increase over the past few hours which saved Amanda's southeast quadrant from completely caving in. Nonetheless the microwave still indicates a shriveling storm, but I think the next advisory will only slightly weaken Amanda. As for the meantime, Amanda is gaining the Sidr look.

[Yellow Evan]

Something I haven't read much of (haven't read pages 17-23) is how the models failed to predict when this was just an Invest and TD that this would get to 135 knots at some point soon...that is significant. Only when this was a hurricane and undergoing EI that the models started sniffing out ideas but IIRC even then they all fell short...pretty crazy!!

No models really thought it would bomb out, yea. They were probably thinking dry air would be more of an issue.

[Yellow Evan]

Probs below 100 knots now.

[cycloneye]

Down to 95kts.

EP, 01, 2014052700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1119W, 95, 966, HU