EPAC: BORIS - Remnants

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Hurricane_Luis
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#141 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Jun 03, 2014 1:29 pm

Tropical Storm Boris

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Re: EPAC: BORIS - Tropical Storm

#142 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 03, 2014 1:45 pm

EP, 02, 2014060318, , BEST, 0, 147N, 941W, 35, 999, TS
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#143 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 03, 2014 2:09 pm

Looks like it slowed down a bit if I'm not mistaken.
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#144 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Jun 03, 2014 2:43 pm

Is this moving inland now or is it just my eyes? To me, it looks to be over land already (although I may be wrong).
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#145 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 03, 2014 3:16 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is this moving inland now or is it just my eyes? To me, it looks to be over land already (although I may be wrong).


ATCF has the center at around 14.7N, which is a bit offshore. Though most of the convection is moving onshore, now yes.
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Re: EPAC: BORIS - Tropical Storm

#146 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 03, 2014 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

...HEAVY RAINS FROM BORIS SPREADING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 94.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ MEXICO TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. BORIS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BORIS SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IS STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE BORIS
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER BORIS MOVES ONSHORE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE REACHING THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20
INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS.
BORIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

Although the satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has
degraded during the past few hours, a couple of ASCAT passes
at 1524 and 1618 UTC detected winds of 34 to 37 kt over the
northeastern portion of the circulation. Based on the ASCAT
data, the system was upgraded to a tropical storm on the 1800 UTC
Intermediate Public Advisory. The initial intensity remains 35 kt,
however, additional strengthening is not anticipated since a large
portion of the circulation is already interacting with land. Boris
should steadily weaken after landfall, and the low-level
circulation is expected to dissipate over the mountains of southern
Mexico in a couple of days.

The initial motion estimate remains northward at about 4 kt. Boris
should continue moving slowly northward around the eastern side of
a mid- to upper-level trough over Mexico. The model guidance is in
somewhat better agreement on taking the system inland over southern
Mexico within the next 24 to 48 hours. The updated NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the TVCE
model consensus.

The primary threat from Boris continues to be very heavy rainfall
and the resultant flooding over southeastern Mexico during the next
couple of days. Rainfall totals could approach 30 inches (750 mm)
in the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, which will likely cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous
terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 14.9N 94.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 15.4N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 16.5N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 17.0N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: BORIS - Tropical Storm

#147 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 03, 2014 6:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

...HEAVY RAINS FROM BORIS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 94.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ MEXICO TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. BORIS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BORIS SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IS STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE BORIS
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER BORIS MOVES ONSHORE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20
INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS.
BORIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: BORIS - Tropical Storm

#148 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 03, 2014 7:38 pm

EP, 02, 2014060400, , BEST, 0, 155N, 940W, 35, 1000, TS
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Re: EPAC: BORIS - Tropical Storm

#149 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 03, 2014 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

...CENTER OF BORIS NEARING THE COAST...
...CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ MEXICO TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. BORIS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BORIS WILL CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS...AND MOVE OVER EASTERN MEXICO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BORIS WILL WEAKEN WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND ON WEDNESDAY...
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL...BORIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

Boris has a rather disorganized appearance on satellite imagery,
and consists of a couple of clusters of very deep convection near
the coastline. Although it is questionable as to whether the
cyclone is still a tropical storm, the current intensity is
maintained at 35 kt as a precaution since the convection is still
strong. This is also in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity
estimate from TAFB. The cyclone will weaken after crossing the
coastline, presumably in a few hours, and the surface circulation is
expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southeastern
Mexico in 36 hours - if not sooner.

Although the center has been very difficult to locate on
geostationary imagery, an AMSR2 microwave image from earlier today
provided a fairly good center fix. This enabled some adjustments
to the working best track of Boris, and extrapolation into this
evening suggests that the storm has moved closer to the coast than
earlier estimated. The cyclone should continue to move slowly
northward on the western side of a mid-level ridge that extends
westward from an anticyclone centered over the western Caribbean
Sea. The official forecast track is a little faster than the
previous one, and moves the center of Boris over southeastern
Mexico over the next day or so. This is close to the latest
dynamical model consensus.

As the weakening tropical cyclone moves inland, it is likely to
continue to produce very heavy rainfall. These rains will cause
life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides over the mountainous
regions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas over the next
couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 15.7N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 16.3N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 16.8N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 17.4N 93.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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#150 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 03, 2014 9:45 pm

Boris looks just about inland now as a borderline TS IMO.
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#151 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Jun 04, 2014 2:07 am

Boris has become a tropical depression as per best track update.

EP, 02, 2014060406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 939W, 30, 1003, TD
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Re: EPAC: BORIS - Tropical Depression

#152 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 04, 2014 5:13 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 AM PDT WED JUN 04 2014

The center or area of minimum pressure associated with Boris
apparently crossed the coast of Chiapas, Mexico near the city of
Tonala around 06 UTC. Since that time, satellite images and surface
observations indicate that the alleged center is rapidly losing
definition, and it is taking the appearance of an elongated
north-south trough of low pressure. I would not be surprised if
there are a couple of centers of circulation along such trough. I
was tempted to declare Boris a remnant low, but I would rather wait
for early morning visible images and keep the system as a tropical
depression at this time.

The depression appears to be moving northward or 360 degrees at 5
knots. Most of the guidance suggests that Boris or its remnants will
continue on this slow track over the high terrain of southeastern
Mexico and dissipate later today.

Boris or its remnants, in combination with a trough of low pressure
in the Bay of Campeche will continue to produce very heavy rainfall.
These rains will cause life-threatening flash flooding and mud
slides over the mountainous regions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca
and Chiapas over the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.2N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.0N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 18.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: BORIS - Tropical Depression

#153 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 04, 2014 9:41 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
800 AM PDT WED JUN 04 2014

Visible satellite images and surface observations suggest that Boris
has not moved much this morning with a large increase of convection
near and south of the apparent center. Since surface observations
are inconclusive on whether a well-defined center still exists, it
is best to keep advisories going for one more cycle. It is likely
that Boris will dissipate later today while it moves slowly
northward and becomes a part of a large trough of low pressure
extending from across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec northward into the
Bay of Campeche.

Boris or its remnants, in combination with a trough of low pressure
over the Bay of Campeche, will continue to produce very heavy
rainfall. These rains will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over the mountainous regions of the Mexican states of
Oaxaca, Chiapas, Veracruz and Tabasco over the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 16.3N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 16.8N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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#154 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:29 pm

Surprised it's still a TC.
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Re:

#155 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:32 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Surprised it's still a TC.


The 2 PM PDT advisory will be the last.

EP, 02, 2014060418, , BEST, 0, 165N, 940W, 20, 1006, DB
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Re: EPAC: BORIS - Remnants

#156 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 04, 2014 3:34 pm

Is over.


REMNANTS OF BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 PM PDT WED JUN 04 2014

Visible satellite images and surface observations show that
Boris has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. Thus, this is
the last advisory on this system. The remnants of Boris should move
slowly northward and become part of a large trough of low pressure
extending from across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec northward into the
Bay of Campeche.

The remnants of this system, in combination with the Bay of Campeche
trough, will continue to produce very heavy rainfall during the
next couple of days. These rains will likely cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides across the Mexican states of Oaxaca,
Chiapas, Veracruz and Tabasco, especially over mountainous regions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF BORIS
12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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