EPAC: BORIS - Remnants

[supercane4867]

Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
201405310000 11.5 -96 20

[hurricanes1234]

93E is here! Fourth invest of the season and it's only May.

[cycloneye]

Officially is not a invest as no best track by ATCF has been released. For sure it will be soon.

[supercane4867]

Officially is not a invest as no best track by ATCF has been released. For sure it will be soon.

Also already on the Navy TC page

[cycloneye]

Now. EP, 93, 2014053006, , BEST, 0, 105N, 935W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014053012, , BEST, 0, 108N, 944W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014053018, , BEST, 0, 111N, 952W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 100, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014053100, , BEST, 0, 115N, 960W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0

[euro6208]

93E INVEST 140531 0000 11.5N 96.0W EPAC 20 1009

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater.





Visible loop

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has changed little since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for the development of this disturbance during the next
few days as it drifts generally northward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system has the potential to bring locally
heavy rains to portions of western Central America and southeastern
Mexico this coming week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[hurricanes1234]

The latest discussion says it's dealing with considerable northerly shear. If the shear does not abate, it might hinder or delay development.

A BROAD 1007 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES S OF SE MEXICO NEAR 12.3N95.5W. THE LOW PRES IS UNDER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE...AND IS UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE NORTHERLY SHEAR. AS A RESULT PULSES OF CONVECTION
ARE LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE
POSITION OF THE LOW PRES IS ESTIMATED BASED ON NEARBY SHIP
OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 04 UTC. ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE ALREADY MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE SW QUADRANT WHERE
SEAS ARE 8 TO 9 FT COMBINED WITH SW SWELL. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NE-
E THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE FRESH WINDS EXPAND IN COVERAGE
BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE BY
48 HOURS. THIS LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

The latest discussion says it's dealing with considerable northerly shear. If the shear does not abate, it might hinder or delay development.

A BROAD 1007 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES S OF SE MEXICO NEAR 12.3N95.5W. THE LOW PRES IS UNDER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE...AND IS UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE NORTHERLY SHEAR. AS A RESULT PULSES OF CONVECTION
ARE LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE
POSITION OF THE LOW PRES IS ESTIMATED BASED ON NEARBY SHIP
OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 04 UTC. ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE ALREADY MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE SW QUADRANT WHERE
SEAS ARE 8 TO 9 FT COMBINED WITH SW SWELL. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NE-
E THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE FRESH WINDS EXPAND IN COVERAGE
BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE BY
48 HOURS. THIS LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Well, shear is suppose to decrease according the TWO.

[hurricanes1234]

This is what the GFS shows at its peak. It shows a 992 mbar low making landfall.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2014053112, , BEST, 0, 115N, 938W, 20, 1009, DB

[hurricanes1234]

Looks very messy right now. It strongly resembles a patch of thunderstorms with no sign of cyclonic rotation, in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

Low center is exposed to the east of convection cluster.

[Extratropical94]

40% / 70%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for the development
of this disturbance during the next few days as it begins to drift
generally northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
system has the potential to produce locally heavy rains over
portions of western Central America and southeastern Mexico this
coming week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

The center looks better this afternoon but shear has to abate more to allow consolidation.See loop at my post of floaters above.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2014053118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 938W, 25, 1009, DB

[Yellow Evan]

To me, it looks like the convection is still to the SW of the LLC.

[Kingarabian]

Any ASCAT runs over the center yet?

[zeehag]

This is what the GFS shows at its peak. It shows a 992 mbar low making landfall.

which way that 992 low go to get to the tehunatepec...did it come from caribbean or gom? or is it going against the traffic .....i think it is our next to be whatever as it should be coming from tehuantepec to pacific...... watching close, as it is in our back yard, and the wannabe boris is south of that....more looking like south of huatulco at this look-see. please tellme no one has spiked my sghettis with magical mushrooms.....
omy i need a super strong umbrella this year....
ye think we see letter U this year?? is starting out with a bang..

sorry about edit--i went to passage weather--they show this blow coming into pacific thru tehuantepec from land vs caribbean side, and joining forces with our wannabe boris.then back thru tehuantepec against norm, and over to fla....they got this model from somewhere. what is this possibility as a likely path?
i am interested in these tehuantepec winds, as they seem to affect much of our weather here on this coast from cabo corrientes to huatulco