91W INVEST 140602 1800 3.0N 164.0E WPAC 15 1010
WPAC: INVEST 91W
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supercane4867
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Finally! After a month of the silence, waiting and dry air, here comes 91W. We'll see what are the chances.
So far over the area, VWS is quite low, and is considered favorable. It is even decreasing. It is now at 5 to 15 knots.
But the problem is the high pressures and lack of steering. Expect this system to move very slowly.
The LLCC is at the bulk of the convection, so no problem about that, and it is because of the decrease of vertical wind shear (VWS) which is favoring the system's organization and helping it consolidate. SSTs right now are very warm over the area too. The invest looks very organized right now.
However, will it surpass and dodge the effects of the higher pressures over that are where it is located? Another problem is also a lack of instability over the area this invest is covered.
So far over the area, VWS is quite low, and is considered favorable. It is even decreasing. It is now at 5 to 15 knots.
But the problem is the high pressures and lack of steering. Expect this system to move very slowly.
The LLCC is at the bulk of the convection, so no problem about that, and it is because of the decrease of vertical wind shear (VWS) which is favoring the system's organization and helping it consolidate. SSTs right now are very warm over the area too. The invest looks very organized right now.
However, will it surpass and dodge the effects of the higher pressures over that are where it is located? Another problem is also a lack of instability over the area this invest is covered.
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
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Steve820
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Hopefully this can strengthen to a tropical storm and earn the name "Mitag"! We've haven't had a named storm, or even a tropical depression, since a month ago!
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Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.
I wish for you to
I wish for you to
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Meanwhile, the major models, specially GFS & ECMWF are developing nothing in the next few weeks. I guesd this is due to the dry MJO over here and the higher pressures over the WPac.
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
I thought i saw an invest earlier before i went to work. I come back, it's gone from best track and Navy website...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Poof...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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