ATL: INVEST 90L

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.


WTNT21 KNGU 061200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS OF 19.4N 94.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2.REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A STATIONARY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LOCATION
IS APPROXIMATELY 420NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE, TX. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CIRCULATION REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER,
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
82 TO 84 DEGREES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL
FEATURE. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR
CANCELED BY 071200Z.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071200Z.//

[SouthDadeFish]

Not quite sure why this is not a classified tropical cyclone. Convection has persisted for several hours now, and it is clear there is a closed LLC. Yes, it is a sheared tropical cyclone, but it is a tropical cyclone nonetheless.

[TheStormExpert]

Even though convection is starting to warm and collapse slightly doesn't mean there won't be another blow up in convection to come, let's just wait and see what it does! IMO it's worth flying into nonetheless.

[Extratropical94]

Medium 70/70, haven't seen that yet.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1055 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
area of low pressure about 40 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico, has
become a little better defined this morning as it moves slowly
west-northwestward. However, the associated thunderstorm activity
is currently poorly organized. A tropical depression could form
before the low reaches the coast of eastern Mexico later today or
tonight. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon. Whether a tropical
depression forms or not, this disturbance could produce heavy rains,
along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over
portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Guess who is flying into Ft. Lauderdale on the 12th

[NDG]

Imo, HD visible satellite shows that the weak LLC is getting very close to coast near Veracruz, shear keeps pushing the convection away from it.

[ozonepete]

Not quite sure why this is not a classified tropical cyclone. Convection has persisted for several hours now, and it is clear there is a closed LLC. Yes, it is a sheared tropical cyclone, but it is a tropical cyclone nonetheless.

Hi SDF! Yep you are right of course. Convection doesn't have to be right over the center for them to designate it a TD or a TS. Many a sheared low down there has gotten named as we especially saw last year. Given that and the fact they bumped it to70 percent it's pretty likely this will be at least a TD by 5PM.

[MGC]

Excellent closed circulation that should be on land in a few hours. Likely a TD. I would not send a plane down as there should be plenty of oil rigs to send wind reports. If some convection could persist near the center there is a small chance it could become a minimal TS.......MGC

[TheAustinMan]

Given the persistent motion of this storm towards the west Invest 90L will likely not be spending too much time over the Bay of Campeche like some of the models are showing. We'll see how close to land 90L is by the time reconnaissance gets there.

[SouthDadeFish]

Not quite sure why this is not a classified tropical cyclone. Convection has persisted for several hours now, and it is clear there is a closed LLC. Yes, it is a sheared tropical cyclone, but it is a tropical cyclone nonetheless.

Hi SDF! Yep you are right of course. Convection doesn't have to be right over the center for them to designate it a TD or a TS. Many a sheared low down there has gotten named as we especially saw last year. Given that and the fact they bumped it to70 percent it's pretty likely this will be at least a TD by 5PM.

Hi Pete, glad you agree! It looks like this system is headed to make landfall soon. If it does get upgraded, its lifetime will most likely be pretty short.

[SeGaBob]

Last night in the 8pm TWO they mentioned near gale force winds were likely occurring. Maybe the recon will find it strong enough to squeeze out Arthur.

[CrazyC83]

What are the oil rigs saying and do we have data online available from them?

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying towards 90L.

[jaguarjace]

RGB Imagery.

[Alyono]

recon is flying into THAT?

Isn't there a convective requirement for a TC?

[HurricaneTracker2031]

recon is flying into THAT?

Isn't there a convective requirement for a TC?

I think recon is flying back.

As of the last observation at 17:25:30Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: ENE (60°)
Location: 26 miles (41 km) to the S (172°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery shows that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a a well-defined low pressure area located about 25
miles northeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico has diminished during the
past several hours. If thunderstorms redevelop near the center, a
tropical depression could still form before the low reaches the
coast of eastern Mexico later this evening or tonight. The Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled to investigate this system
has been delayed. Whether a tropical depression forms or not, this
disturbance could produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and
eastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Meow]

recon is flying into THAT?

Isn't there a convective requirement for a TC?

Many tropical cyclones were sheared. Why can’t this sheared system be a tropical cyclone?

[cycloneye]

Plane flying back to base

You can see it at graphic I posted at recon thread.

[Meow]

Plane flying back to base

You can see it at graphic I posted at recon thread.

Why is it near 30N?