EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Not much left of Cristina.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014

Deep convection associated with Cristina has dissipated during
the last several hours, with the circulation now just a swirl of low
clouds. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased considerably,
and, as a result, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based
on a blend of CI- and Final-T numbers. A continued rapid spin down
of the vortex is forecast by all of the intensity guidance, and
Cristina should weaken to a remnant low within 24 hours. Global
models then show the remnant low degenerating into an open trough in
a few days. The NHC intensity forecast now calls for Cristina to
become post-tropical in 24 hours, though this could occur sooner.

Now that Cristina is a shallow cyclone, its movement has become more
westerly as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north.
A longer-term average of center fixes, however, gives an initial
motion estimate of 295/05. As the ridge to the north weakens during
the next day or so, Cristina is expected to resume a west-
northwestward or northwestward motion at a slow forward speed until
dissipation. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
but adjusted slightly to the left during the first 24 hours as a
result of the more westward initial motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.8N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 20.0N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 21.2N 115.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 21.8N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 23.0N 117.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

Although Cristina has been devoid of deep convection for about 12
hours now, shallow to moderate convection has encircled the cyclone
center with some cloud tops to -30C located about 60 nmi north of
the center. Given that Cristina is moving westward over SSTs near
27C, tropical storm status is being maintained for this advisory in
the event that convection redevelops near the center later this
morning. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on an average of
satellite current intensity estimates of 35 kt from both TAFB and
SAB, 31 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, and 36 kt from CIRA-AMSU.

Cristina has been moving westward, or 270/05 kt, for the past 6
hours. However, this is likely only a temporary wobble due to the
mid- and upper-level circulations having decoupled and sheared out
to the north and northeast. The consensus of the model guidance
calls for Cristina and its remnant circulation to gradually turn
toward the west-northwest later today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Monday as the cyclone moves slowly toward a developing
weakness in the subtropical ridge. The official forecast track is
slightly to the left of the previous advisory to account for the
more westward initial position.

Water vapor imagery indicates that the small, cold upper-low that
has induced southwesterly wind shear across the cyclone has recently
become juxtaposed with Cristina's low-level circulation. Although it
is doubtful that the tropical storm will regenerate into a
vertically deep cyclone as a result of this short-lived interaction,
the cold air aloft associated with the upper-low could temporarily
enhance the develop of some convection near the center today before
Cristina moves over sub-26C SSTs. Otherwise, a gradual spin down of
the cyclone is expected over the next 72 hours, and the official
intensity forecast calls for Cristina to become a post-tropical low
later today and dissipate in about 3-4 days, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 19.8N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 20.2N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z 20.9N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 22.2N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 23.3N 117.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Hurricane_Luis]

Downgraded to a Tropical Depression

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 151433
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

Cristina continues to lack any deep convection, which is not
surprising given the hostile envirionment of strong shear, cool
waters and dry air. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina will likely
be declared a remnant low later today, and global model fields
show the low dissipating around 72 hours.

The initial motion has turned back toward the west-northwest at 5
kt. Cristina is expected to gradually turn poleward into a weakness
in the subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. The NHC track is
a little to the right of the previous one, following the latest
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 20.1N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[hurricanes1234]

Next advisory should be it's last. A very impressive storm this became, it was the earliest second Category 4 and it almost reached Category 5 status (roughly 6 mph away from that strength).

[cycloneye]

Last advisory.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

Cristina has been devoid of deep convection since yesterday, and it
only consists of a tight swirl of low-level clouds. Therefore,
Cristina is now declared a remnant low, and this is the last
advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

The remnant low is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt. The
cyclone is expected to turn northwestward tonight toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge, and continue in that direction
until it dissipates in 2 to 3 days.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 20.5N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 16/0600Z 21.0N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1800Z 21.7N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0600Z 22.4N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 23.1N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

Goodbye Cristina, you will surely be missed!

[Yellow Evan]

I would have kept it on, but see ya Cristina. Keep it up EPAC!

[TheStormExpert]

Yet another quality storm down and it's only June 15th! Thankfully the majority of these storms remain fish, otherwise we could be in for a very L-O-N-G season over in the East Pacific.

[Yellow Evan]

Yet another quality storm down and it's only June 15th! Thankfully the majority of these storms remain fish, otherwise we could be in for a very L-O-N-G season over in the East Pacific.

Imagine of Amanda and Cristina were 24-36 hrs from land when they bombed out. It would not have been pretty.

[euro6208]

Bye cristina...

That is why I love tracking EPAC hurricanes. They can get all powerful and stuff and quickly dissipate without almost affecting no one...

Rapid intensification rapid weakening

The WPAC though is a different breed

[Steve820]

Bye, Cristina! You were a very incredible and awesome storm! Keep it up, EPac, you are already performing much better than you did in 2013, a.k.a the year of tropical storms and C1 hurricanes! I just can't believe we have 2 Category 4s before July 1st. That shows how insane the EPac might be this year.