EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2014060612, , BEST, 0, 108N, 984W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060618, , BEST, 0, 108N, 984W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060700, , BEST, 0, 108N, 984W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060706, , BEST, 0, 109N, 985W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060712, , BEST, 0, 110N, 987W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST,


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is
poorly organized at this time, slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days as the low
drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Saved images around the peak of intensity.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This one should have little problem becoming the season's second hurricane. Shear is moderate now but the SHIPS decreases it to almost nothing by day 5. The environment starts getting drier as it tracks west, typical of the East Pacific, but as long as shear is low this shouldn't be a significant issue. Both the SHIPS and the LGEM models make this a strengthening hurricane by day 5.

The GFS has a midgrade tropical storm, the ECMWF has a potent hurricane (sub-975mb). The HWRF, which has performed excellently so far this season, has a hurricane by 102 hours and a major hurricane by 126 hours.

Inner nest:

[Ntxw]

I agree, conditions will be very good a little down the road for 94E to become potentially Cristina. General idea this year for the EPAC is to go with the more aggressive model when you have something in play here, just my opinion. Not necessarily just for their skill but the fact the basin is ripe.

[hurricanes1234]

Amazing! This season is certainly on a roll! Last night I fell asleep with nothing on the 5 day TWO and this morning, I see an invest with strong convection and a 40% chance of development in 5 days!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oops! I completely forgot to again, check what the models were developing. Anyway, as of now, I guess this convection and shape has improved. Hoping for another fishie from this! If the HWRF prediction pans out, then this would bring up the EPac ACE by again, a lot! This could be fun to track.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks really nice, though a tad further north to where most storms form in June. This is gonna be fun.

[cycloneye]

94E is getting a good cyclonic look.Agree that this should be a formidable hurricane to track.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS shows an intense system.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF once again shows a powerful tropical system



GFDl does not develop this due to shear

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico,
have become a little better organized this morning. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional slow development of this
system during the next several days as the low moves slowly
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

SHIP is very agressive on intensity.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1822 UTC SAT JUN 7 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942014) 20140607 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140607 1800 140608 0600 140608 1800 140609 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 100.3W 14.0N 100.6W 14.7N 100.8W 15.5N 101.1W
BAMD 13.1N 100.3W 13.6N 101.0W 13.9N 101.7W 14.2N 102.2W
BAMM 13.1N 100.3W 13.8N 100.9W 14.3N 101.4W 14.7N 101.8W
LBAR 13.1N 100.3W 13.7N 100.8W 14.2N 101.6W 15.2N 102.2W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140609 1800 140610 1800 140611 1800 140612 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 101.6W 16.6N 103.2W 17.2N 106.0W 17.4N 109.8W
BAMD 14.5N 102.8W 14.8N 104.4W 15.2N 106.5W 15.6N 108.6W
BAMM 15.0N 102.4W 15.1N 104.0W 15.2N 106.5W 15.3N 109.0W
LBAR 16.1N 102.9W 18.7N 103.9W 22.3N 103.5W 24.8N 101.9W
SHIP 61KTS 74KTS 85KTS 90KTS
DSHP 61KTS 74KTS 85KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 100.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 99.6W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 99.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[supercane4867]

Latest ASCAT reveals potential LLC to the north of deep convection

[hurricanes1234]

Probably dealing with the same wind shear being forecast by GFDI. Do you think it will hamper the system's development?

But I agree though, this invest already has that cyclonic look that makes me feel this would be something strong. You don't often see that shape and that convection in a low with a 20% chance of development in 48 hours (at least I don't see it much).

[supercane4867]

Probably dealing with the same wind shear being forecast by GFDI. Do you think it will hamper the system's development?

Shear doesn't look that unfavorable since most models show development, but I don't expect it to become especially strong given its large size and current position. Track and intensity may resemble Cosme of last year.

[Yellow Evan]

Probably dealing with the same wind shear being forecast by GFDI. Do you think it will hamper the system's development?

Shear doesn't look that unfavorable since most models show development, but I don't expect it to become especially strong given its large size and current position. Track and intensity may resemble Cosme of last year.

Cosme was bigger and more monsoonal like and had less time over favorable conditions. Once large systems become vertically aligned properly, they can RI. Look at the WPAC for proof. Also, Cosme paralleled the coast, while this thing is moving west.

[Kingarabian]

Can't wait for it to get going!

[hurricanes1234]

Certainly is pulling in a lot of moisture. I won't be surprised if the chances are increased to 40% in 2 days by the next outlook.

[Yellow Evan]

Certainly is pulling in a lot of moisture. I won't be surprised if the chances are increased to 40% in 2 days by the next outlook.

I'd give it 40/80 or 30/80 personally.

[Yellow Evan]

Rock solid hurricane

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, have
continued to increase and become a little better organized over the
past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next several
days as the low moves northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart