EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[Nimbus]

That Pacific track to the west is a good place to watch cat 4-5 hurricanes!

As long as they don't trigger an earthquake or produce mudslides in Hawaii.

[supercane4867]

That Pacific track to the west is a good place to watch cat 4-5 hurricanes!

As long as they don't trigger an earthquake or produce mudslides in Hawaii.

How does a hurricane trigger an earthquake?

[richard-K2013]

Here is the MODIS Terra high resolution satellite imagery.
Cristina is very small but extremely powerful. Her eys is also very clear in this imagery.

[Meow]

At 1740Z

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cristina_Jun_12_2014_1740Z.jpg

[Yellow Evan]

That Pacific track to the west is a good place to watch cat 4-5 hurricanes!

As long as they don't trigger an earthquake or produce mudslides in Hawaii.

How does a hurricane trigger an earthquake?

It's rare for a Cat 4/5 to hit Hawaii due to its small size. Nothing is known for sure if hurricanes trigger earthquakes.

[supercane4867]

Down to 120kt

...CRISTINA WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT STILL CATEGORY 4...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 107.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Cristina appeared to peak in intensity earlier this morning around
1200 UTC. Deep convection has become less symmetric since that
time, and the eye is somewhat cloud filled in the latest visible
images. The initial intensity is lowered to 120 kt for this
advisory, which is close to a blend of current intensity estimates
from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT.

Although a UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that about 10 kt of
west-southwesterly shear is affecting Cristina, it is likely that
internal dynamics within the core of the hurricane are also
modulating the intensity. Only gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 24-36 hours since vertical wind shear is expected to
remain light and the ocean is sufficiently warm. After 48 hours,
environmental conditions become more hostile, and quicker weakening
is anticipated after that time. Given the hurricane's current
structure, the statistical models appear too sluggish in showing
weakening in the short-term, and the NHC intensity forecast
therefore shows faster weakening during the first 36 hours.

The initial motion remains 295/7 kt with Cristina located to the
south of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The track models
are tightly clustered for much of the forecast period, showing
Cristina maintaining a northwestward to west-northwestward motion
through the next 48 hours. After that time, the weakening cyclone
will be steered to the west by lower-level flow. The updated NHC
track forecast is moved a little north of the previous forecast
during the first 48 hours in response to a general shift in the
guidance envelope, but overall the change is quite negligible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 16.9N 107.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 17.6N 108.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 18.4N 110.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.1N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 112.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 19.7N 113.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.8N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[galaxy401]

Cristina and Amanda will certainly bring more attention for the NHC on studying rapid intensification. Very hard to predict sometimes.

[CrazyC83]

As for the peak intensity, I would think at about 1200Z it was 135 kt.

Considering at 0600Z it was likely only about 110 kt and 0000Z likely about 85 kt...

[Yellow Evan]

Cristina and Amanda will certainly bring more attention for the NHC on studying rapid intensification. Very hard to predict sometimes.

It's time for a research mission on how storms RI.

RI itself isn't hard to predict, how much RI is.

[Yellow Evan]

As for the peak intensity, I would think at about 1200Z it was 135 kt.

Considering at 0600Z it was likely only about 110 kt and 0000Z likely about 85 kt...

I think 130 knts works fine, given ADT is sometimes a little too bullish.

[supercane4867]

The SAB which strictly follows the constraint rule had the peak intensity analyzed only at T6.0. This holds Cristina from being near Cat.5 borderline despite ADT numbers were same as Amanda

[Yellow Evan]

The SAB which strictly follows the constraint rule had the peak intensity analyzed only at T6.0. This holds Cristina from being near Cat.5 borderline despite ADT numbers were same as Amanda

I'm not a fan of constraints when RI'ing. I'm glad the NHC went much higher though; the EPHC would set it at around 115-120 knts.

[supercane4867]

The SAB which strictly follows the constraint rule had the peak intensity analyzed only at T6.0. This holds Cristina from being near Cat.5 borderline despite ADT numbers were same as Amanda

I'm not a fan of constraints when RI'ing. I'm glad the NHC went much higher though; the EPHC would set it at around 115-120 knts.

They also had Rick at T7.0 and that's somewhat ridiculous in my opinion, Fortunately it was well-ignored by the NHC

[Yellow Evan]

The SAB which strictly follows the constraint rule had the peak intensity analyzed only at T6.0. This holds Cristina from being near Cat.5 borderline despite ADT numbers were same as Amanda

I'm not a fan of constraints when RI'ing. I'm glad the NHC went much higher though; the EPHC would set it at around 115-120 knts.

They also had Rick at T7.0 and that's somewhat ridiculous in my opinion, Fortunately it was well-ignored by the NHC

IMO it's time for Dvoark to be updated. IT was designed in the 70's.

[Kingarabian]

That's why I strictly follow ADT.

[Yellow Evan]

Comparing Cristina to recent June hurricanes

[TheStormExpert]

Simply beautiful. I know the Atlantic is people's favorite but personally I love to track storms in both EPAC and WPAC.

If only the Atlantic could produce some more quality storms compared to the past several years! Just don't want the storms to affect anyone but the fish.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Just to repost (from page 1), this is what the HWRF was calling for back on June 7, valid at 06z this morning.

[Kingarabian]

Just to repost (from page 1), this is what the HWRF was calling for back on June 7, valid at 06z this morning.

Yeah. Has the HWRF become reliable?