EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[Macrocane]

Intensity forecast is still a headache, we have a lot to learn yet.

[Senobia]

I haven't been following this, but is this storm anticipated to hold together enough to impact Oahu? If so, what's the outlook for them?

[CrazyC83]

Probably peaking now at 135 kt based on all that data.

[Meow]

Final ADT numbers are at Cat.5.


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 928.2mb/137.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.8 6.8

ADT also analysed Amanda CI6.9, but it did not reach category 5.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Cristina likely peaked as a 135kt cyclone near 12z when -80C convection wrapped fully around the eye. Since that time, the eye has cooled slightly and eyewall convection has weakened some. I'd give 130kt in conjunction with the latest NHC advisory.

Imagine how this would've performed in the absence of the dry air that it struggled with for much of its life before yesterday.

EDIT: Image at my estimated peak intensity:

[CrazyC83]

If storms this early can bomb into such strong storms, imagine come peak season what we might see? Haiyan-like monsters?

[supercane4867]

I'm speechless

[wxman57]

Here's a nice nighttime visible shot from Colorado State - taken with the help of the nearly full moon last night:

[supercane4867]

Morning visible closeup

[MGC]

Cristina in the moon light...thanks 57. Beautiful image. Didn't know the image sensors were that sensitive. Cristina has not failed to impress. Two cyclones with crazy rapid intensification. Looks to me the hurricane has peaked out to me......MGC

[tolakram]

18:30Z



from the FTP site: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

[northjaxpro]

Cristina in the moon light...thanks 57. Beautiful image. Didn't know the image sensors were that sensitive. Cristina has not failed to impress. Two cyclones with crazy rapid intensification. Looks to me the hurricane has peaked out to me......MGC

I believe it has maxed out in intensity as well. Nonetheless, Cristina certainly is impressive. Wow. At peak intensity, Cristina was about as textbook looking as a hurricane can get that's for sure.

[Yellow Evan]

WOW! 130 knts! Man, this is incredible. It's probed peaked though, but sitll, one hec of a storm.

[Yellow Evan]

I think 130 knt is a reasonable peak intensity tbh. I kinda hate storms that peak at 135 knts though.

[Yellow Evan]

One question: Why is Dvoark constraints being followed here?

[hurricanes1234]

Here's a breakdown of this:

To have a Category 4 bordering Category 5 status in May is exceedingly rare.

To have another Category 4 just weeks later in June, again nearing Category 5 status is beyond rare (in fact it's never happened before).

We will end June with at least two Category 4 hurricanes having occurred so far (Amanda and Cristina). Some seasons go all the way through November 30 without seeing a single Category 4. It happened last year in EPAC.

So far, with the current ACE, the season is almost ahead of the entire Atlantic season last year.

The previous record for the earliest second Category 4 was July 1. With our second coming on June 12, the record has been shattered by 19 days.

By the end of June, I won't be surprised if we find out that it's the highest ACE ever seen for the first two months in the season.

Back to Cristina, although it seems to be weakening now, it intensified from 65 knots to 130 knots in 24 hours. That's an increase of 65 knots in 24 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

[hurricanes1234]

Best track has Cristina down to 125 knots. Still impressive nonetheless and if it can stay alive for a couple more days at hurricane strength, the ACE will go up by a lot.

03E CRISTINA 140612 1800 16.7N 107.5W EPAC 125 940

[Yellow Evan]

Here's a breakdown of this:

To have a Category 4 bordering Category 5 status in May is exceedingly rare.

To have another Category 4 just weeks later in June, again nearing Category 5 status is beyond rare (in fact it's never happened before).

We will end June with at least two Category 4 hurricanes having occurred so far (Amanda and Cristina). Some seasons go all the way through November 30 without seeing a single Category 4. It happened last year in EPAC.

So far, with the current ACE, the season is almost ahead of the entire Atlantic season last year.

The previous record for the earliest second Category 4 was July 1. With our second coming on June 12, the record has been shattered by 19 days.

By the end of June, I won't be surprised if we find out that it's the highest ACE ever seen for the first two months in the season.

Back to Cristina, although it seems to be weakening now, it intensified from 65 knots to 130 knots in 24 hours. That's an increase of 65 knots in 24 hours.

Odv, this is remarkable. I think your next to last record one about the ACE may not happen. Guess what seasons owns that record? 2010. XD As for Cristina, it's still an amzaing hurricane. This is the 4th fatest 24 hour EI, after Amanda, Kiko 83, and Linda 97. Tied with Elida 02.

[supercane4867]

AVHRR high resolution false color imagery taken around 16z



Zoomed channel 1 view shows an extremely clear eye