NIO: NANAUK - Cyclonic Storm

[Meow]

West of India

[Meow]

GFS supports a severe cyclonic storm moving towards Oman and Saudi Arabia.

[Meow]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
68.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 67.8E, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 081446Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ARABIAN SEA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

95A INVEST 140609 1200 13.6N 68.1E IO 30 1000

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TCFA Issued for Invest 95A by the JTWC

WTIO21 PGTW 091330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 69.0E TO 17.2N 66.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 68.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 67.8E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 68.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, ALBEIT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE
IS APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ARABIAN SEA, AT 31
DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101330Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Things here too here in this area are starting to heat up. Let's see how strong 95A could be. I am impressed by the banding and the outflow of the disturbance right now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Forecast to become a category 1

WTIO31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091321Z JUN 14//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.9N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.5N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.9N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.3N 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.9N 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.3N 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.6N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 092236Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES INCREASED CONSOLIDATION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED WHILE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED MARGINAL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE IMAGERY AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MID TO DEEP-LAYER REFLECTION OF A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR STEERING RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY AS
ANOTHER STR BUILDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU
72, REACHING 70 KNOTS, AS EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW CONTINUE. INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 72,
WILL START A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH
OMAN. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL TRACK
SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI/091321Z JUN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW
091330Z).//
NNNN

[Meow]

Approaching Oman...



IMD is silent.

[jaguarjace]

Next name is Nanauk, contributed by Myanmar.

[Grifforzer]

14:30 PM IST/ARB01-2014/Bulletin #1

Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over east central Arabian Sea and lay centered near 15.5N 68.5E, about 610 km southwest of Mumbai, 630 km south southwest of Veraval and 1160 km southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

It would move north northwestwards and intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hrs. Subsequently it would move west northwestwards towards Oman coast.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the area between latitude 12.0N to 17.5N 61.0E to 70.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -75C. The convective clouds in the system have organized with merging of clusters during the past six hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center .The winds are higher in the southern sector (25-35 knots) due to monsoon surge. The central pressure of the depression is 998 hPa.

The sea surface temperature over the region is about 30-32C. The ocean thermal energy is about 80-120 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity in lower levels has increased during the past 24 hours along with the low level convergence. However, the upper level divergence also increased during the past six hours. The vertical wind shear in the horizontal wind has increased over the region and is about 20-30 knots. Despite of the adverse vertical wind shear the system has intensified due to favorable sea surface temperatures, low level vorticity and upper level divergence. Considering Madden-Julian oscillation, it lies in phase 3 (equatorial east Indian ocean) with amplitude less than 1.The models predict it to lie in phase 3 during the next 5 days with increasing amplitude, but less than 1. Hence, while Madden-Julian oscillation phase is favorable, amplitude is not favorable for intensification.

Considering numerical weather prediction models, GFS continues to show cyclone with initial north westward and then westwards movement towards Oman coast. However, it weakens the system, near Oman coast making it as a low at 1200 PM UTC, Sunday ECMWF Meteo France and UKMO models indicate low in initial condition and maximum intensification up to depression/ deep depression during the next 72 hours with north westward movement and weakening of the system thereafter. Hence, there is a large variation in the intensity prediction by the models.

[euro6208]

02A TWO 140610 1200 16.4N 68.2E IO 40 993

up to 40 knots!

[Alyono]

40 KT

time for JT to look at DATA

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bds196.png

50 KT a while ago

and as for IMD... what by chance are the qualifications of their meteorologists? I ask because any first year student in university can tell this is a cyclone

[Meow]

40 KT

time for JT to look at DATA

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bds196.png

50 KT a while ago

and as for IMD... what by chance are the qualifications of their meteorologists? I ask because any first year student in university can tell this is a cyclone

According to the WMO document, depression by IMD is a kind of tropical cyclones.

[Alyono]

OK... I should say that it should be their version of a tropical cyclone. It is far more intense than a depression. Just got a meteosat 7 visible image in just before the sun went down.

This is at least a 55 KT cyclone now

[Meow]

OK... I should say that it should be their version of a tropical cyclone. It is far more intense than a depression. Just got a meteosat 7 visible image in just before the sun went down.

This is at least a 55 KT cyclone now

Ask IMD for their Dvorak technique... They analysed only T1.5

[Alyono]

OK... I should say that it should be their version of a tropical cyclone. It is far more intense than a depression. Just got a meteosat 7 visible image in just before the sun went down.

This is at least a 55 KT cyclone now

Ask IMD for their Dvorak technique... They analysed only T1.5

I take it they have no clue how to do a Dvorak analysis then. Just looking at the final visible yields an easy 3.5

Not surprising... this is the same organization that told Myanmar that Nargis "only" had 75 KT winds as it approached their coastline

[Alyono]

MIMIC microwave shows an eye forming. Maybe IMD will up this to a deep depression

[Meow]

MIMIC microwave shows an eye forming. Maybe IMD will up this to a deep depression

IMD expects a deep depression within 12 hours, and the system will intensify into a cyclonic storm.

[Alyono]

There are technical flaws with IMD that really cause their TC operation to lack professionalism

The biggest flaw is their staunch refusal to ever break Dvorak constraints. Their T numbers only increase by .5 in a 6 hour period. Their second, is they wait too long to initiate Dvorak estimates. Thus, they are constrained by the initial max value of 1.5

Until they figure out that they need to start estimates sooner, and that TCs do intensify at a rate faster than .5 T number in a 6 hour period, they will always have poor products

[Grifforzer]

1730 PM IST/ARB01-2014/Bulletin 2

Remarks:

The sea surface temperature over the region is about 30-32C. The ocean thermal energy is about 80-120 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity in lower levels along with the low level convergence and the upper level divergence have remained the same during the past six hours. The vertical wind shear in the horizontal wind over the region is about 20-30 knots. Despite of the adverse vertical wind shear. The system would intensify due to favorable sea surface temperatures, low level vorticity and upper level divergence. Considering Madden-Julian oscillation, it lies in phase 3 (equatorial east Indian ocean) with amplitude less than 1.The models predict it to lie in phase 3 during the next 5 days with increasing amplitude , but less than 1. Hence, while Madden-Jullian oscillation phase is favorable, amplitude is not favorable for intensification.

Considering numerical weather prediction models, GFS continues to show cyclonic storm with west northwestward movement towards moan coast till 0000 UTC, Saturday and then recurves towards northeast and weakening of the system over sea. ECMWF, Meteo France and UKMO models indicate maximum intensification up to depression/deep depression during the next 72 hours with north westward movement and weakening of the system thereafter. JMA model shows initial northwestward movement up to 60 hours and then westward movement with gradual intensification up to severe cyclonic storm during the 72 hours. Hence, there is a large variation in the track and intensity prediction by the models.