NIO: NANAUK - Cyclonic Storm

[Meow]

Considering numerical weather prediction models, GFS continues to show cyclonic storm with west northwestward movement towards moan coast till 0000 UTC, Saturday and then recurves towards northeast and weakening of the system over sea. ECMWF, Meteo France and UKMO models indicate maximum intensification up to depression/deep depression during the next 72 hours with north westward movement and weakening of the system thereafter. JMA model shows initial northwestward movement up to 60 hours and then westward movement with gradual intensification up to severe cyclonic storm during the 72 hours. Hence, there is a large variation in the track and intensity prediction by the models.

Looks like JMA does better job than IMD in this basin.

[Hurricane_Luis]

How is this not named yet I don't Know. All I know is IMD are underestimating this system a lot. 02A is above TS intensity.

[Meow]

An unnamed 50-knot cyclone

[Meow]

1745Z satellite bulletin:

VORTEX:-
VORTEX OVER EC ARSEA CENTERED NEAR 16.5N/67.6E (.) INTENSITY T2.0 RPT T2.0(.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER ARSEA BET LAT 11.0N TO 19.5N LONG 60.5E TO 70.5E (.)

[Alyono]

whatever IMD is smoking, it must be pretty good... even better than an Indonesian cigarette

[supercane4867]

It is the IMD as always...just get use to it lol

[alhddar]

[alhddar]

[alhddar]

Time of issue: 1630 hours IST Dated: 10.06.2014
Bulletin No.: ARB01/2014/01
Sub: Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea.
Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed
over eastcentral Arabian Sea and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 10th June, 2014 near
latitude 15.50 N and longitude 68.50 E, about 610 km southwest of Mumbai, 630 km southsouthwest
of Veraval and 1160 km southeast of Masirah Island (Oman). It would move northnorthwestwards
and intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hrs. Subsequently it
would move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall would occur at most places with isolated heavy
falls over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next 24 hours.
Strong winds speed reaching 35-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph would prevail along and off
Konkan and south Gujarat coast during next 48 hrs. Sea condition would be rough along and off
Konkan , Goa and south Gujarat coast during the same period.
Fishermen along and off Konkan and south Gujarat coasts are advised to be cautious
while venturing into the Sea during next 48 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 10th June, 2014.

[euro6208]

02A TWO 140610 1800 16.5N 67.8E IO 50 985

Indeed, up to 50 knots!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A mid-to-strong TS would be the most reasonable estimate, based on Dvorak and imagery. And I am surprised that the IMD only has this as a weak Depression, and that 3-minute wind speeds are not too far away from 1-minute wind speeds.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If this were in the WPAC, it would be given probably 40-55 knts by the TS-bullish JMA. 10-minute winds are longer than both 1-min & 3-min.

[euro6208]

If this were in the WPAC, it would be given probably 40-55 knts by the TS-bullish JMA. 10-minute winds are longer than both 1-min & 3-min.

Up to 55 knots!

02A TWO 140611 0000 16.9N 67.1E IO 55 982

Most likely JMA only gives this 35 knots but JTWC gives this 55 knots based on dvorak numbers almost reaching 3.5 and the above 0Z best track update.

[Meow]

Most likely JMA only gives this 35 knots but JTWC gives this 55 knots based on dvorak numbers almost reaching 3.5 and the above 0Z best track update.

Poor IMD...

[euro6208]

[Steve820]

Well, here comes the next named storm in the NIO, if it's named it will be Na-nauk. It looks impressive on satellite imagery, since the JTWC appears to give it an intensity of 55 knots, I can't believe it hasn't been named yet! Checking out the forecast track, Oman might have to watch out in the long term.

[Macrocane]

WMO must do something to help IMD with cyclones forecasting and monitoring, it is by far the worst RSMC, sorry for the bashing but it is. I wonder what will the intensity be in the first advisory, it could be near hurricane strength by that time!

[Grifforzer]

IMD Satellite Bulletin message

VORTEX OVER ARABIAN SEA CENTERED NEAR 16.5N/67.2E(.) INTENSITY T2.5 RPT T2.5(.)

[supercane4867]

"Unnamed Depression"

[Meow]

Finally...

Cyclonic Storm ‘NANAUK’ over eastcentral Arabian Sea.
The deep depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved slowly westwards, intensified into a cyclonic storm ‘NANAUK’ and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 11th June, 2014 near latitude 16.50 N and longitude 67.20 E, about 660 km southwest of Mumbai, 590 km south-southwest of Veraval and 990 km southeast of Masirah Island (Oman). It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. It would move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hrs