WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

07W HAGIBIS 140616 0000 24.3N 116.8E WPAC 25 1000

Down to 25 knots...

[stormcruisin]

May re-emerge.

[euro6208]

Remnants of Hagibis looks fairly well organized despite being on land for over 12 hours...

Just looked through the population map for this part of china. Likely over 130 million people will get some sort of weather from this...

[jaguarjace]

Still going.

[euro6208]

Forecast to regain TS status.


WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO
THE LLCC. A 162032Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. HAGIBIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN SHOWING A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN TRACK, ALL
OTHER TRACKERS INCLUDING GFS, NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[richard-K2013]

JMA upgraded it to tropical storm again few minutes ago.

台風第7号 (ハギビス)
平成26年06月17日13時35分 発表

<17日12時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域 東シナ海
中心位置 北緯 28度05分(28.1度)
東経 124度30分(124.5度)
進行方向、速さ 東北東 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 996hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域 全域 130km(70NM)

[euro6208]

07W HAGIBIS 140617 0600 28.6N 126.2E WPAC 30 999

Up to 30 knots!

[euro6208]

Remains a 30 knots Depression...

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 34 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FAST-MOVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STRETCHED IN
THE DOWN-SHEAR DIRECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND A 170616Z SSMI 85-GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTING THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
30 KNOTS BASED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A 170200Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING ENHANCED WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. TD 07W IS POLEWARD OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
CURRENTLY PROVIDING 30+ KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. HAGIBIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE QUICKLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Latest PGTW giving 1.5 on this system while KNES is lower, 1.0...


TPPN10 PGTW 170925

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS)

B. 17/0832Z

C. 28.8N

D. 127.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, AND MET IS UNAVAILABLE
DUE TO LLCC BEING OVER LAND 24HRS AGO. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0616Z 28.5N 126.3E SSMI


CHAPPOTIN



TXPQ25 KNES 170933
TCSWNP

A. 07W (HAGIBIS)

B. 17/0832Z

C. 28.5N

D. 127.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0.
MET AND PT ARE UNVAILABLE DUE TO SYSTEM BEING UNCLASSIFIABLE 24 HRS AGO.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

Tropical Depression Hagibis...

[euro6208]

07W HAGIBIS 140617 1200 29.2N 130.0E WPAC 30 999

Remains a depression in this 12Z update,

[wxman57]

ASCAT had 40kt winds last evening.

[richard-K2013]

Its wind speed is up to 40 Knots via JMA!
It's now stronger than before it made landfall at Shantou City.

TS 1407 (HAGIBIS)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 17 June 2014

<Analyses at 17/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N29°05'(29.1°)
E130°00'(130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement E 65km/h(35kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE220km(120NM)
NW130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 18/00 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N31°00'(31.0°)
E136°25'(136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N32°05'(32.1°)
E141°30'(141.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

[euro6208]

07W HAGIBIS 140617 1800 29.5N 133.6E WPAC 30 1000

Not much change.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 32
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS TD 07W HAS MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY COHERENT
STRUCTURE, DESPITE BEING STRETCHED IN THE DOWN-SHEAR DIRECTION, AS
IT RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE EIR ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-
ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS EVIDENT IN A 171709Z NOAA-
19 COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR LOOP, PGTW FIX AND RJTD RADAR FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD AS WELL AS NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS. TD 07W IS POLEWARD OF
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
CURRENTLY PROVIDING 30+ KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ADDITIONALLY, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONNECTED INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH EXHAUST TO SUSTAIN
THE DEEP CONVECTION IN SPITE OF THE STRONG VWS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND
IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW
MAY MAINTAIN NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS BEYOND THIS FORECAST. AVAILABLE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[stormcruisin]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUN 2014 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 30:09:33 N Lon : 139:11:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 987.7mb/ 45.0kt

Dont appear that way on the image atm 45KT looks very generous.

Appears to be extra tropical on the image.




JTWC 30 knots looks to be on the mark viewing the ascat pass.

[euro6208]

Final Warning.


WTPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) FINAL WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 30.1N 138.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 45 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 30.8N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 140.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
316 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 45
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO BEING STRETCHED IN
A DOWN-SHEAR DIRECTION AS IT IS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND MID-LATTITUDE WESTERLIES, CURRENTLY PROVIDING STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TD 07W IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
POSSIBLY SOONER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN