WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

Southeast of Hainan Island

[euro6208]

95W INVEST 140611 1200 17.2N 113.7E WPAC 15 1010

Lots of energy in the SCS.

[euro6208]

Low Chance!


AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 114.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, UN-DEFINED LLCC. A 111820Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
LOOSELY-WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED POLEWARD OFF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
LIMITED OUTFLOW AND IS IN A LOW TO MODERATE (1O TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

0Z GFS not developing this anymore. More likely this will be another subtropical or front that veers off to the northeast similiar to STS 94W.

[euro6208]

Remains LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
114.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 114.3E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY. A 120206Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS LITTLE ORGANIZATION OF THIS CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WITH LIMITED OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (1O TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

06Z GFS showing not much with this system. It deepens it to 991 mb but likely a powerful extratropical storm. Rain will be the issue here for the neighboring countries...

[Meow]

Now it is a TD by JMA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 20N 117E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Meow]

JMA began to issue a warning on the system.



WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 19.5N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[euro6208]

Remains LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5N
116.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AND PARTLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FRAGMENTED AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WITH LIMITED OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[richard-K2013]

A fake eye appears!
Its convection is still organizing but it looks better than before.

[euro6208]

95W INVEST 140613 1200 20.9N 119.1E WPAC 15 1010

Not much change...

[euro6208]

Development potential remains very high.

[Meow]

The tropical depression may intensify into a tropical storm within 24 hours.



TD
Issued at 13:20 UTC, 13 June 2014

<Analyses at 13/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N20°10'(20.2°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°55'(21.9°)
E116°20'(116.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

95W is located right under an anticyclone providing low shear in a very small area but increases dramatically elsewhere which may help it to intensify a bit. If this does develop, i think it will just be weak due to shear and possible land interaction ...



Nonetheless, this system will bring many periods of heavy rains across this area and worsen the so called southwest monsoon or called HABAGAT in the philippines which may cause massive floodings...

[stormcruisin]

Another hybrid type of warm core system that should develop along the stagnant frontal zone.

[Meow]

Japan: 20.2N 116.1E
USA: 20.9N 119.1E

Their positions are far away between each other.

[euro6208]

Another hybrid type of warm core system that should develop along the stagnant frontal zone.

What is a hybrid system?

EDIT: I found the answer...Hybrid cyclones have energetics and structures of both tropical and baroclinic
cyclones.

[stormcruisin]

Japan: 20.2N 116.1E
USA: 20.9N 119.1E

Their positions are far away between each other.

Totally confused by that post.

[Meow]

Totally confused by that post.

The Japan Meteorological Agency analysed the centre of the tropical depression was located at 20.2N 116.1E, yet the US Naval Research Laboratory analysed 95W’s centre was located at 20.9N 119.1E. Is it clear enough?

[stormcruisin]

Totally confused by that post.

The Japan Meteorological Agency analysed the centre of the tropical depression was located at 20.2N 116.1E, yet the US Naval Research Laboratory analysed 95W’s centre was located at 20.9N 119.1E. Is it clear enough?

WOW attitude never asked for a cat fight