WPAC: Invest 99W

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 140624 1200 10.0N 131.9E WPAC 15 1010



looks like it consolidating but located in a marginal environment with stronger shear along it's path.

Vorticity is good and moisture is there but land interaction will likely prevent development in the near term.



99W FLOATER

[euro6208]

12Z keeps a low pressure area heading northwest until landfall over luzon.

Other models show nothing...

[mrbagyo]

I think it will develop into something and this might mark the real start of our season, then come late July to early August - KABOOM!

[mrbagyo]

it's slowly organizing its structure.
and there's another developing disturbance - South of Chuuk
WPAC is finally waking up.

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 140625 0600 10.6N 131.2E WPAC 15 1010

not much change.

[euro6208]

Models mainly GFS take a weak low pressure area deepening it to 1004 mb before landfall over luzon...

Well whether or not this develops, the philippines will get more heavy rainfall from this...

[oaba09]

Already experiencing overcast over metro manila. Not expecting much in terms of development but this should still bring rain over Luzon and visayas.

[euro6208]

LOW chance from JTWC!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0N 129.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING
COINCIDENT WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING, AND DISORGANIZED YET
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. A 251257Z METOP-B IMAGE
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[stormcruisin]

Heavy storms and rough squalls in that convention mess. I would not like to be under it.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Rains are insane here in Cebu

[euro6208]

Remains LOW...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
129.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION THAT IS ABOUT TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED
WESTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(15 TO 25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS
IS OFFSET BY A STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION
TO THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BASED ON A 260130Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.