EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 27, 2014 1:32 pm

Post away.

EP, 96, 2014062618, , BEST, 0, 120N, 992W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2014062700, , BEST, 0, 123N, 997W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2014062706, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1003W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2014062712, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1008W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2014062718, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1013W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, E,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#2 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Jun 27, 2014 1:44 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 27, 2014 1:52 pm

First run by the tropical models makes this almost a cat 3.

WHXX01 KMIA 271830
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC FRI JUN 27 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962014) 20140627 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140627 1800 140628 0600 140628 1800 140629 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 101.3W 13.5N 102.3W 14.4N 104.1W 15.2N 106.2W
BAMD 13.0N 101.3W 13.5N 102.5W 14.3N 104.0W 15.1N 105.7W
BAMM 13.0N 101.3W 13.5N 102.7W 14.2N 104.3W 14.9N 106.4W
LBAR 13.0N 101.3W 13.6N 102.6W 14.5N 104.7W 15.8N 107.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 39KTS 50KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 39KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140629 1800 140630 1800 140701 1800 140702 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 108.5W 16.4N 113.1W 15.2N 115.3W 14.8N 112.3W
BAMD 16.0N 107.7W 17.5N 112.0W 17.5N 115.6W 15.7N 118.1W
BAMM 15.5N 108.8W 15.9N 112.8W 14.8N 114.3W 15.0N 111.5W
LBAR 17.1N 110.1W 20.3N 115.8W 24.0N 119.0W 26.5N 118.7W
SHIP 64KTS 83KTS 94KTS 99KTS
DSHP 64KTS 83KTS 94KTS 99KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 101.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 100.3W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 99.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 27, 2014 1:56 pm

Conditions look very very good. Should head NW.
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#5 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 27, 2014 2:07 pm

They were saying thata low should form over the weekend but it has formed earlier. Really excited to see the end product. Should hopefully be a fish.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 27, 2014 2:13 pm

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#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 27, 2014 2:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:They were saying thata low should form over the weekend but it has formed earlier. Really excited to see the end product. Should hopefully be a fish.


Well, yesterday, the GFS was showing it blasting into MX as a hurricane FYI. See the 2014 EPAC thread, where I talked about it a bit.

Since then, models have shifted west, though this is a slight threat to Baja IMO.
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#8 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jun 27, 2014 2:45 pm

If that verifies, we will have three major hurricanes by the 4th named storm (I think 99 knots is a minimal Category 3). That must be a first or second in this basin. Amazing hurricane season.
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Re:

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 27, 2014 3:08 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:If that verifies, we will have three major hurricanes by the 4th named storm (I think 99 knots is a minimal Category 3). That must be a first or second in this basin. Amazing hurricane season.


2011 had 3 majors by Storm #5. 1993 which had 9 majors within a 10 storm span did not see this/ So, AFAIK it would be a record.
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#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jun 27, 2014 3:24 pm

Shear seems low (going down to 5 knots) for now, but I think it increases to 20 knots somewhere a few days from here.
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Re:

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 27, 2014 3:38 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Shear seems low (going down to 5 knots) for now, but I think it increases to 20 knots somewhere a few days from here.


Per whom?
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Re: Re:

#12 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jun 27, 2014 3:47 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Shear seems low (going down to 5 knots) for now, but I think it increases to 20 knots somewhere a few days from here.


Per whom?


This website: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

I didn't post it because sometimes it's difficult to do on my Kindle, which it was.
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Re: Re:

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 27, 2014 4:02 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Shear seems low (going down to 5 knots) for now, but I think it increases to 20 knots somewhere a few days from here.


Per whom?


This website: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

I didn't post it because sometimes it's difficult to do on my Kindle, which it was.


K, Thanks.

It shows fairy low shear into the area it's moving in. It's moving WNW to NW, not W. It's not moving that fast. This isn't 2013, where they moved too fast :P
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 27, 2014 4:08 pm

Something intriguing in the surface analysis at 18Z and that is they have a low around 92W but no low around 102W where this invest is.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 27, 2014 4:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:Something intriguing in the surface analysis at 18Z and that is they have a low around 92W but no low around 102W where this invest is.

Image



The CMC shows it (but it shows 3-5 EPAC storms within the next 10 days). I think it's too close to 96E to form right now.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 27, 2014 5:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:Something intriguing in the surface analysis at 18Z and that is they have a low around 92W but no low around 102W where this invest is.

Image


Image

This system you mention is the northerly one here. 96E is the southerly one. Not sure if I buy this. Very CMC like.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 27, 2014 5:33 pm

:uarrow: Is Fujiwhara.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:09 pm

From seasonal thread, but so amazing that I will post it here.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:35 pm

Broad low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. The low's circulation is gradually
becoming better defined, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for the development of a tropical depression by early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:03 pm

EP, 96, 2014062800, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1025W, 20, 1008, LO
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