EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

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Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:

#161 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 04, 2014 6:50 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Amazing! Wow, this storm is like Irwin 11 all over again. Ok, maybe not. But still, I love when storms do this.


I like it too. But I think this will be its last advisory as a tropical storm, because convection is really weak right now and waters are very cold.


Agreed. I think they'll make it post-tropical at 3z.
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#162 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 04, 2014 8:45 pm

Okay, ATCF keeps this at 35 knts: This is Irwin 11 all over again.

EP, 04, 2014070500, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1188W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 50, 1011, 240, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, M,
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#163 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:05 pm

Douglas is a long-lived storm which only contributed 2.9 units to the ACE. :lol: This is different compared to typhoon Neoguri, which formed many days after TS Douglas formed, wherein Neoguri already contributed more than 2.4 units to the ACE.
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#164 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:10 pm

I cannot believe it is STILL a tropical storm!
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#165 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:18 pm

They probably kept it as a tropical storm because of the new burst of convection over the center and to the east of it. That convective burst is strange considering the water temperatures are sub 24 degrees Celsius and it is diurnal minimum.
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#166 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:38 pm

4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Douglas is hanging on as a tropical storm. After being devoid of
deep convection for much of the day, a small area has redeveloped to
the northeast of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 35
kt based on earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak pattern
T-number of 2.5 from TAFB. Douglas is currently over cold 23C
waters and in a stable airmass. These hostile conditions should
cause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low
by 24 hours. This is delayed slightly from the previous forecast.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the northeast of Douglas should keep the system
on a steady northwestward path until it dissipates in a few days.
The track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one, and
is very near the multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.4N 119.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 23.1N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 24.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 25.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 25.8N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re:

#167 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:56 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:They probably kept it as a tropical storm because of the new burst of convection over the center and to the east of it. That convective burst is strange considering the water temperatures are sub 24 degrees Celsius and it is diurnal minimum.


Wind shear is low. Dry air not a factor due to the low shear. (Somewhat) Favorable MJO. Above average SST's. It's not in that hostile conditions aside from the cool SST's.
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#168 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 05, 2014 1:31 am

Too bad it was no cane'. Would've made a nice contribution to the ACE.
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#169 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Jul 05, 2014 2:11 am

I hope Douglas outlives Arthur as a tropical system. :lol: That would be a nice feat even if it failed to become a hurricane...
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#170 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Jul 05, 2014 3:29 am

TD for now

EP, 04, 2014070506, , BEST, 0, 228N, 1193W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 240, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, S,
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Depression

#171 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 05, 2014 5:19 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Douglas has once again lost its deep convection, likely now for the
final time. The small patch of showers and thunderstorms dissipated
around 03Z and Dvorak intensity analyses from SAB and TAFB suggest
that Douglas has weakened to a tropical depression. With expected
continued cool water and a stable atmosphere along its track, the
cyclone should become a remnant low shortly.

The depression is moving northwestward at 8 kt. A low to
mid-level subtropical ridge to its northeast will continue to
steer Douglas toward the northwest or west-northwest at a slightly
slower speed for the next two days until dissipation. The track
forecast is again nudged to the north of the previous advisory and
is based upon the multi-model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 23.1N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 23.9N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 24.9N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 25.8N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

#172 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:04 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Douglas remains devoid of deep convection, and since the sea
surface temperatures are below 22 deg C, there is little likelihood
of the system making a comeback. Therefore the system is being
declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory. The large
circulation has been slow to spin down, but gradual weakening is
anticipated with the cyclone expected to dissipate in about 72
hours.

The initial motion continues northwestward at about 8 kt.
Post-tropical cyclone Douglas should continue to be steered by the
flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge.
The track guidance generally shows a turn toward the west-northwest
with a slight decrease in forward speed over the next couple of
days, and so does the official forecast.

for additional information on the remnant low of Douglas, please see
high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service...under
awips header nfdhsfepi and wmo header fzpn01 kwbc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 23.7N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.4N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1200Z 25.4N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0000Z 26.1N 123.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 26.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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#173 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:04 am

Meh, Bye Douglas!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#174 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Jul 05, 2014 7:36 pm

I'm posting this quote from Page One because it's nice to be reminded that intensity models can sometimes fail quite miserably. :lol:

cycloneye wrote:First run by the tropical models makes this almost a cat 3.

WHXX01 KMIA 271830
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC FRI JUN 27 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962014) 20140627 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140627 1800 140628 0600 140628 1800 140629 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 101.3W 13.5N 102.3W 14.4N 104.1W 15.2N 106.2W
BAMD 13.0N 101.3W 13.5N 102.5W 14.3N 104.0W 15.1N 105.7W
BAMM 13.0N 101.3W 13.5N 102.7W 14.2N 104.3W 14.9N 106.4W
LBAR 13.0N 101.3W 13.6N 102.6W 14.5N 104.7W 15.8N 107.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 39KTS 50KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 39KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140629 1800 140630 1800 140701 1800 140702 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 108.5W 16.4N 113.1W 15.2N 115.3W 14.8N 112.3W
BAMD 16.0N 107.7W 17.5N 112.0W 17.5N 115.6W 15.7N 118.1W
BAMM 15.5N 108.8W 15.9N 112.8W 14.8N 114.3W 15.0N 111.5W
LBAR 17.1N 110.1W 20.3N 115.8W 24.0N 119.0W 26.5N 118.7W
SHIP 64KTS 83KTS 94KTS 99KTS
DSHP 64KTS 83KTS 94KTS 99KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 101.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 100.3W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 99.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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