EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

Looks very impressive for an invest. I am expecting an upgrade by 21:00 UTC or by 3:00 UTC for the absolute latest. Despite what some others said before about 97E dominating, I think 96E will, because you can see it is already stronger and its outflow is affecting 97E.

[hurricanes1234]

This is a more recent picture from after 19:00, as it appears as though the SSD floater has been down since 17:15 today. As you can see, it has gotten more organized since then and I think an upgrade is likely very soon.

[zeehag]

this shows elida making landfall in mazatlan...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.8W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.8W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 105.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression Four-E has formed.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 282045
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure southwest
of Mexico has enough banded convective organization and center
definition to be declared a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity
is set to 30 kt, in agreement with an ASCAT-B pass from 1602 UTC.

The large-scale environment looks favorable for strengthening, with
an upper-level anticyclone located just east of the center, along
with plenty of warm water. However, the depression has a rather
large circulation envelope and radius of maximum winds, which could
preclude anything more than gradual strengthening. Guidance is
split, with the LGEM/SHIPS showing a strong tropical storm, while
the HWRF/GFDL keep the system weaker through the first few days of
the forecast. The NHC prediction is a little below the intensity
consensus at first to account for the initial structure, then is
above the consensus on Days 2/3 under the assumption the system
eventually consolidates. Some weakening seems likely at longer
ranges due to cooler waters and possible dry air aloft.

The initial motion of the cyclone is 295/10. A ridge currently
over the eastern Pacific and northern Mexico is forecast to build
eastward and strengthen over the next couple of days, which should
cause the cyclone to accelerate and take a slight leftward bend by
Monday. The guidance is in good agreement and the NHC track
forecast is close to the model consensus during this time.
Afterward, there is much uncertainty in the forecast due to
a possible interaction with invest EP97 to the east, along with the
ridge likely weakening along 120W. The model solutions become
rather divergent, ranging from a slow southward motion from the
HWRF/GFDL to a moderate westward motion from the ECMWF/GEFS. The
NHC forecast at long range will show a slow westward course,
more in line with the ECMWF/GEFS solutions, and is west of the
track consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 14.5N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 15.3N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 17.5N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[hurricanes1234]

Isn't really expected to become much and expected to move out to sea. I suppose, like Cristina was initially, if this develops an inner core soon, we could see more strengthening than forecast?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I know it's too early to tell, but, I think that there is a chance this could be at least a category 1 hurricane.

[TheAustinMan]

We'll wait and see how TD 4E and the disturbance to its east will intermingle over the next few days as that will probably have a big factor in determining the fate of both systems.

[cycloneye]

Still TD at 00z.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (EP042014) 20140629 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140629 0000 140629 1200 140630 0000 140630 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 106.7W 15.3N 108.4W 16.4N 110.4W 17.4N 112.3W
BAMD 14.3N 106.7W 15.2N 108.7W 16.3N 110.8W 17.3N 112.8W
BAMM 14.3N 106.7W 15.2N 108.7W 16.2N 110.7W 17.2N 112.6W
LBAR 14.3N 106.7W 15.1N 109.0W 16.3N 111.7W 17.6N 114.6W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140701 0000 140702 0000 140703 0000 140704 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 114.0W 18.6N 116.8W 18.3N 119.4W 17.4N 122.1W
BAMD 18.1N 114.4W 18.6N 116.7W 18.2N 118.6W 17.6N 120.5W
BAMM 17.9N 114.2W 18.4N 116.7W 18.0N 118.9W 17.1N 121.2W
LBAR 19.0N 117.1W 21.7N 121.4W 23.8N 123.7W 25.0N 125.1W
SHIP 59KTS 57KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 59KTS 57KTS 52KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 106.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 104.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 102.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[hurricanes1234]

SHIPS doesn't really make this anything strong, the official forecast is even weaker than SHIPS - I personally don't see this becoming anything much, unless something unexpected happens like it organises faster than forecast, for its size. Unless that happens, however, this will probably remain weak, in my opinion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

Lets see if the NHC can make up some ground in their average intensity forecast error.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014

Recent microwave images show that deep convection associated with
the depression is only loosely organized in bands while a new burst
of convection is developing about 100 nm north of the estimated
center. Since the structure has not improved much since the last
advisory, the intensity is being held at 30 kt, which is supported
by a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

The depression is located to the south of an anomalously strong
mid-level ridge which runs east-west across northern Mexico and the
adjacent Pacific. As a result, the depression is moving quickly to
the west-northwest with an initial motion of 285/12 kt. Further
acceleration is anticipated in the next 12-24 hours as the
depression gets closer to the strongest part of the ridge. After
24 hours, the ridge is forecast to shift westward and become
anchored near 25N 135W, which will tend to cause the depression to
slow down in the latter part of the forecast period. The track
models are in generally good agreement in the eventual path of the
cyclone but do diverge on forward speed by days 3 through 5. The
biggest outlier is the GFDL, which turns the depression
northeastward toward Mexico in response to a more significant break
in the ridge. The GFDL solution is disregarded, and the updated
track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one.

Relatively low vertical shear, a moist environment, and warm sea
surface temperatures favor strengthening during the next few days.
Rapid intensification is not expected in the short term due to the
sprawling nature of the depression, but once the cyclone becomes
more consolidated, strengthening should be a little quicker. The
updated NHC forecast shows a slightly faster strengthening rate
between 12-48 hours and is just under the SHIPS guidance. By day 3,
a more stable and drier air mass, as well as cooler ocean water,
will likely end any intensification and then cause gradual weakening
by the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.6N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.4N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 16.6N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 17.0N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 17.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 17.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 17.5N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[stormcruisin]

Tend to think 2 weak systems at best.

[Yellow Evan]

Tend to think 2 weak systems at best.

Why not?

We've seen how much the NHC forecast can be conservative twice this season.

[stormcruisin]

Tend to think 2 weak systems at best.

Why not?

We've seen how much the NHC forecast can be conservative twice this season.

Think the proximity of the the two lows will hinder development theres only so much energy available check out the cape. Interested in why you think both or one will r/i .

[Yellow Evan]

Tend to think 2 weak systems at best.

Why not?

We've seen how much the NHC forecast can be conservative twice this season.

Think the proximity of the the two lows will hinder development theres only so much energy available check out the cape. Interested in why you think both or one will r/i .

I think one will. Felecia in 09 was close to Enrique, but still RI'd. Ditto with Bud 06, which was close to Carlotta. Even Irwin/Jova 11 to some extent applies here as well.

Remember, we have MJO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Tend to think 2 weak systems at best.

Why not?

We've seen how much the NHC forecast can be conservative twice this season.

Think the proximity of the the two lows will hinder development theres only so much energy available check out the cape. Interested in why you think both or one will r/i .

Not necessarily. Conditions are too favorable for weak systems, and that many of the models including the best performer, HWRF, are expecting at least 2 hurricanes.

[stormcruisin]

Just my 2 cents.
Its a very interesting setup xtyphooncyclonex i think this low will drag the other along and there will be the conveyor belt affect wrapping around both lows and sharing the available energy between both lows. Neither i think will get to take advantage and RI unless one fully consumes the other. I myself would like nothing more than to see and track 2 major fishies but cant really see it happening with these being so close. For the record i consider anything under 64 knots a weak system.

[mrbagyo]

as it appears as though the SSD floater has been down since 17:15 today

I thought it's just my PC. but damn why now?
good thing is that we still got SSEC Real Earth hahaha

just sharin

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014

The tropical cyclone remains rather broad and sprawling early this
morning, with some deep convective banding features trying to
develop. Data from an ASCAT overpass suggests that the system does
not yet have strong winds very close to the center, and that it is
below tropical storm strength. This is also in agreement with
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The current intensity
is held at 30 kt based on those estimates.

The depression continues to move fairly quickly toward the
west-northwest, or about 290/14, due to a strong mid-level high
pressure area that is currently situated to the north of the
cyclone. Global models predict that this high pressure area will
shift westward during the next few days, with a mid-level weakness
developing to the north of the tropical cyclone later in the
forecast period. Consequently, the system should gradually slow its
forward speed within the next couple of days. The official track
forecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close to the
latest ECMWF solution.

The broad nature of the cyclone and lack of an inner core argues
against any rapid strengthening. Nonetheless, vertical shear is
forecast to remain low and the system will be traversing
sufficiently warm waters to allow for strengthening during the next
few days. The official wind speed forecast is very similar to the
latest Decay-SHIPS guidance through 72 hours and close to the
intensity model consensus thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 16.0N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 17.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch