EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

Yet to become a tropical storm. I'm agreeing with a weak system, so unless this develops an inner core fairly soon, I think the overall result might be weak. If however it does develop an inner core soon, then we could possibly see something different. However, you have 97E right to the east which will probably help in preventing any quick intensification for now.

[hurricanes1234]

04E FOUR 140629 1200 15.9N 109.3W EPAC 30 1005

Still a tropical depression at 12:00 UTC ...
Pressure dropped by 1 millibar.

[hurricanes1234]

This depression has very good banding features, as you can see...



Unofficial ADT estimates (see here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt04E.html) bring it to a weak tropical storm based on the estimates...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.1mb/ 43.0kt

However, the numbers here are weaker...

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.5 2.5

And the weakening flag, as well as the rapid dissipation flag are both on.

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Expected to become a tropical storm later today.

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 291443
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014

...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 110.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H
...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Satellite pictures show that the cloud pattern of the cyclone has
gradually been increasing in organization this morning. A large
band consisting of very cold-topped convection covers the western
semicircle of the circulation, and deep convection has also begun
to develop around the center in what appears to be the beginnings
of an inner core. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates remain at
2.0 from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity estimate is
kept at 30 kt for this advisory. However, recent trends suggest
that the depression is very near tropical-storm strength.

The center position has been difficult to determine, which, in
turn, makes the depression's initial motion rather uncertain. A
smoothing of the latest fixes suggests that the cyclone continues
to move quickly toward the west-northwest, or 295/14, due to a
strong subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. Global
models show a weak mid- to upper-level trough extending southward
offshore of the California coast during the next few days, which
is forecast to cause this ridge to weaken. This change in the
steering pattern should result in a substantial reduction in the
cyclone's forward speed with the track bending toward the west once
the circulation becomes more shallow in nature. The NHC forecast
track is quite a bit faster and to the right of the previous one,
primarily due to the re-location of the center based upon
first-light visible images. The forecast track lies on the far left
side of the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF solution.

Environmental conditions are favorable for strengthening during the
next couple of days, but the large size and slow evolution of the
inner core of the depression suggests that only gradual
intensification is likely to occur. Beyond that time, the
cyclone should reach cooler waters and move into a somewhat drier
and more stable air mass, which should bring a halt to any further
strengthening. The large-scale conditions should not, however, be
hostile enough to cause a rapid decay of the cyclone, so only slow
weakening is indicated late in the forecast period. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to
the multi-model consensus through 72 hours, but is a little lower
on days 4-5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 16.4N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 17.0N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 17.5N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.7N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, taking its time. Still think it'll become a hurricane though. The thing is that it's moving much faster than I thought.

[euro6208]

looks like a large monsoon depression in the WPAC which unfortunately takes time to develop and conditions along the path will only decrease...

[Yellow Evan]

[hurricanes1234]

looks like a large monsoon depression in the WPAC which unfortunately takes time to develop and conditions along the path will only decrease...

I see there is significant dry air just to the west of this system. I am wondering if this will affect it, considering its fast movement. The NHC forecast doesn't show it affecting 4E until later on, though, so maybe it still has more time than we think.

[Yellow Evan]

looks like a large monsoon depression in the WPAC which unfortunately takes time to develop and conditions along the path will only decrease...

I see there is significant dry air just to the west of this system. I am wondering if this will affect it, considering its fast movement. The NHC forecast doesn't show it affecting 4E until later on, though, so maybe it still has more time than we think.

Dry air can't be a problem without shear.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF still calls for a marginal hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

ATCF admits it made a mistake. Agreed that it was 35 knts at 15z.

EP, 04, 2014062912, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1097W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 80, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M,

[hurricanes1234]

ATCF admits it made a mistake. Agreed that it was 35 knts at 15z.

EP, 04, 2014062912, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1097W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 80, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M,

So what will the NHC have to do based on that? I wonder if this means they will correct the advisory or issue a special one?

[Yellow Evan]

ATCF admits it made a mistake. Agreed that it was 35 knts at 15z.

EP, 04, 2014062912, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1097W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 80, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M,

So what will the NHC have to do based on that? I wonder if this means they will correct the advisory or issue a special one?

They'll change it post season. It's not a threat to land.

[Yellow Evan]

12/18z BT brought it back down to a TD. Disagreed since a blend of everything AFAIK gets 35 knts.

EP, 04, 2014062918, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1114W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M,

[Kingarabian]

Looks really good for a TD. Once it consolidates a bit more, it should take off.

[Yellow Evan]

Eh, to be fair, based on satellite alone, it looks like 30 knts. Dry air prevented it from doing much for now.

[hurricanes1234]

It only gets drier as it heads out to the west. I agree the structure is not very good, the depression is opened to the east. Unless it can fend off that increasing dry air, I am doubtful of this becoming a hurricane or even a high end tropical storm. However, as many may know, I tend to over analyze unfavourable conditions, and this is only my opinion.

[Kingarabian]

Only problem is that dry air slot near the COC. Otherwise, it's ready to go IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 292037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014

...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 111.9W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H
...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN