EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #21 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:31 pm

I think this has a good chance to become a formidable hurricane at some point in its life cycle. Low shear below 15 knots, warm sea surface temperatures above 28C, and mid-level RH values above 60% through at least 120 hours.

stormcruisin · #22 Postby **stormcruisin** » Fri Jun 27, 2014 9:14 pm

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/14062 ... _ships.txt

Shear at 108 hrs out is only 20 knots and for a short period.

#23 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:49 am

Broad low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. The low's circulation is gradually
becoming better defined, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for the development of a tropical depression by early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

#24 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:53 am

GFS has it much much further E and weaker. HWRF shows a high Cat 1/weak Cat 2 though.

#25 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:08 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad low centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. The low's circulation is gradually becoming better
defined, and environmental conditions appear conducive for the
development of a tropical depression by early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$
Forecaster Blake

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:38 am

Intensity of SHIP came down a bit at 12z.

000
WHXX01 KMIA 281249
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962014) 20140628 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140628 1200 140629 0000 140629 1200 140630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 104.5W 14.8N 106.2W 15.6N 108.1W 16.4N 110.3W
BAMD 14.0N 104.5W 14.9N 106.3W 15.9N 108.4W 17.0N 110.6W
BAMM 14.0N 104.5W 14.9N 106.4W 15.8N 108.7W 16.7N 111.1W
LBAR 14.0N 104.5W 15.0N 106.4W 16.3N 108.8W 17.6N 111.7W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140630 1200 140701 1200 140702 1200 140703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 112.4W 17.7N 116.1W 17.2N 119.1W 15.8N 122.0W
BAMD 17.9N 112.9W 18.5N 116.9W 17.4N 119.6W 15.3N 121.6W
BAMM 17.2N 113.5W 17.3N 117.5W 15.8N 119.7W 13.6N 120.3W
LBAR 19.0N 114.4W 22.3N 119.0W 25.2N 121.0W 27.5N 120.4W
SHIP 52KTS 55KTS 56KTS 60KTS
DSHP 52KTS 55KTS 56KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 104.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 102.5W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 101.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

hurricanes1234 · #27 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:22 am

What has caused it to drop this much? I thought it was forecasting a Category 2/3 not too long ago, now it doesn't even make it a hurricane in the forecast period.

#28 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:33 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:What has caused it to drop this much? I thought it was forecasting a Category 2/3 not too long ago, now it doesn't even make it a hurricane in the forecast period.

This system is likely too far W and close to very stable cooler air just to the N. My hunch is any cyclone of greater strength that does develop would be back toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec and a bit closer to the Coast of Mexico. We could see several potential TC's develop along the monsoonal trough over the next week to 10 days or so in that Region.

#29 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:50 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:What has caused it to drop this much? I thought it was forecasting a Category 2/3 not too long ago, now it doesn't even make it a hurricane in the forecast period.

Don't take SHIPS/LGEM forecast literately. They are usually high on it's first run, and then go lower somewhat.

GFS still calls for a minimal hurricane.

#30 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:54 am

srainhoutx wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:What has caused it to drop this much? I thought it was forecasting a Category 2/3 not too long ago, now it doesn't even make it a hurricane in the forecast period.

This system is likely too far W and close to very stable cooler air just to the N. My hunch is any cyclone of greater strength that does develop would be back toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec and a bit closer to the Coast of Mexico. We could see several potential TC's develop along the monsoonal trough over the next week to 10 days or so in that Region.

No, this year, the stable/cool air isn't that far north as in years past. It's over very favorable conditions for the next 4-5 days. It's not even that far west.

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:44 pm

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a low pressure area centered about 350 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are becoming better
organized. Environmental conditions are very conducive for further
development and a tropical depression could form later today or
tonight while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

#32 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:13 pm

I'm smelling an upgrade by 21z if not 3z.

#33 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:31 pm

HWRF shows both Douglas and Elida as hurricanes, with Elida in the GOC.

#34 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:35 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:HWRF shows both Douglas and Elida as hurricanes, with Elida in the GOC.

Very interesting. Would be amazing is this panned out. It shows Elida making landfall, is that correct?

I wonder if Douglas could be our first basin crosser...

#35 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:HWRF shows both Douglas and Elida as hurricanes, with Elida in the GOC.

Very interesting. Would be amazing is this panned out. It shows Elida making landfall, is that correct?

I wonder if Douglas could be our first basin crosser...

Douglas will be moving WNW. Way too far east to make it to the CPAC IMO.

As for Elida making landfall, it doesn't within 126 hours per the HWRF, which only goes 126 hours out.

#36 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:38 pm

CMC keeps it of moderate intensity

#37 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:40 pm

Aha, heading too much to the North. :uarrow:

#38 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:41 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Aha, heading too much to the North.

The perfect crossover is a TC moving west to WNW between 10N-12N.

#39 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Aha, heading too much to the North.

The perfect crossover is a TC moving west to WNW between 10N-12N.

I agree. Lack of patience on my part. Still way too early for conditions to allow.

#40 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:51 pm

Looks really good with nice outflow/banding.

Also, we've had this invest for 2 days now and still not Dvorak classifications?

EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

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