EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

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#101 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:52 am

With no inner core yet is not going to gain much strength, is just a large system with most of the strongest winds well away from the COC.
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#102 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:37 am

This has little potential from here, in my opinion. I knew it wouldn't strengthen much, when I saw that dry air yesterday and that lack of organization, whether shear was a lot or minimal. I am questioning whether it will even strengthen at all or just remain at 40 mph and then weaken from there. However, that's just my opinion.
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:36 am

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Douglas has changed little in organization during the past 6 hours.
The cyclone has maintained a broad inner core with most of the
convective banding features being well removed from the center.
The current intensity has been held at 35 kt, which is in agreement
with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate is 305/08 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Douglas is
expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the
cyclone, which will result in a gradual decrease in Douglas'
forward speed. By late in the forecast period, the ridge is
expected to strengthen, which should turn the cyclone more westward
as it comes under the influence of moderate low-level trade wind
flow. This motion will bring Douglas over cooler waters, causing the
cyclone to gradually weaken. The official forecast track is a
little to the right of the previous advisory track, but only to
account for the more northward initial position. Otherwise, the new
forecast track closely follows the multi-model consensus TCVE.

Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak at less
than 10 kt for the next 3 days or so, the broad inner-core wind
field and sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 27C
argues for only slight intensification over the next couple of days.
After that, Douglas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a
drier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should
result in steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 17.4N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.7N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 19.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.5N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#104 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:38 am

Forecasted peak lowered to 45 mph. I doubt this will strengthen anymore.

:uarrow: Not official!
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:22 am

Nice tracking you Douglas! Bye Bye... :D
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:33 am

euro6208 wrote:Nice tracking you Douglas! Bye Bye... :D


Actually it is expected to strengthen a little, then linger around as a weak tropical storm for about 48 hours again. If this happens, it will bump up the ACE slightly.
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 30, 2014 11:09 am

euro6208 wrote:Nice tracking you Douglas! Bye Bye... :D


It's not weakening.
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#108 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:23 pm

Still 35 knots at 18:00 UTC. Quite a boring system in my view...

04E DOUGLAS 140630 1800 17.7N 114.4W EPAC 35 1003

I personally think the chances of further intensification are small, because the structure is very large and disorganized, conditions are not good, and they only get worse from here. It won't surprise me at all to see this peak at 35 knots, in fact, I would personally be surprised if this strengthens anymore at this stage. But that's just my opinion and it's not meant to be compared with any official information.

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#109 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:37 pm

Shame that it hasn't been able to maintain deep convection near the COC and get a CDO going.

Structure looks really nice. Really does resemble a WPAC type system.
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Re:

#110 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:14 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Still 35 knots at 18:00 UTC. Quite a boring system in my view...

04E DOUGLAS 140630 1800 17.7N 114.4W EPAC 35 1003

I personally think the chances of further intensification are small, because the structure is very large and disorganized, conditions are not good, and they only get worse from here. It won't surprise me at all to see this peak at 35 knots, in fact, I would personally be surprised if this strengthens anymore at this stage. But that's just my opinion and it's not meant to be compared with any official information.

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I kinda like it in a sense just because it's different. But otherwise I agree it is a dull system. Conditions aren't even that hostile.
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#111 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:08 pm

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 302035
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Douglas is holding its own. The main deep convection associated
with the storm is located in a long band wrapping around the
southern semicircle of the circulation. However, cloud top
temperatures in that band have been slowly warming. A 1700 UTC
ASCAT pass winds showed around 30 kt winds, primarily in an area
about 100 n mi southeast of the center. Dvorak intensity are 2.5
from both TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Based on these classifications
and the assumption that there could be somewhat higher winds not
captured in the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is held at 35 for
this advisory. Time has run out for Douglas to intensify further.
Even though there is virtually no shear, the system is already
ingesting drier and more stable air mass as it moves over
increasingly cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit
lower than the previous one and shows remnant low status in 4 days,
though this potentially could occur sooner.

The initial motion is 305/09. Douglas is moving into a weakness in
the subtropical ridge to its north, which should result in a
continued northwestward motion but at considerably slower forward
speed. Once the cyclone decouples and become a shallow vortex, a
turn toward the west is expected prior to dissipation. The NHC track
forecast is adjusted only slightly to the north, closer to the
multi-model consensus as well as the ECMWF and GFS solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 17.7N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 18.3N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 19.3N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 19.6N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 19.6N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 19.6N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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#112 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:14 pm

Wonder if the Atlantic also being active is affecting the E-Pacific?
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Re:

#113 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:22 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Wonder if the Atlantic also being active is affecting the E-Pacific?


I would not consider the ATL active by any means.

And the two events have nothing to do with each other (unless there was an ATL storm in the Caribbean/Gulf which would make the EPAC unfavorable). In this case, 91L is off the SE coast and hundreds, if no thousands of miles away form the EPAC.

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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:33 pm

Weak and disorganized minimal TS.....certainly does not live up to expectations

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#115 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 30, 2014 6:25 pm

That dry air is immense.
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#116 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 6:34 pm

In the end I won't be surprised if this accumulates 0.5 units of ACE or less. Now that time is up for this to strengthen, now is a good time for me to start saying my goodbyes since it doesn't have much in terms of winds to bring it down to a remnant low, in my opinion. It is a unique storm, and its appearance is unusual for a storm in this region, but its large size along with a mediocre environment have prevented it from going beyond minimal tropical storm status. Oh well...
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#117 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:25 pm

Somehow, someway, Douglas is up to 40 knts per the ATCF.

EP, 04, 2014070100, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1147W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 100, 60, 0, 1008, 275, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, M,
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Re:

#118 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:34 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Somehow, someway, Douglas is up to 40 knts per the ATCF.

EP, 04, 2014070100, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1147W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 100, 60, 0, 1008, 275, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, M,


Actually, it looks ever so slightly more compact now. Still disorganised but a little better than what we were seeing before. Also, ADT estimates bring it up to nearly 45 knots.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 999.9mb/ 43.0kt
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Re: Re:

#119 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:37 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Somehow, someway, Douglas is up to 40 knts per the ATCF.

EP, 04, 2014070100, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1147W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 100, 60, 0, 1008, 275, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, M,


Actually, it looks ever so slightly more compact now. Still disorganised but a little better than what we were seeing before. Also, ADT estimates bring it up to nearly 45 knots.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 999.9mb/ 43.0kt


True, but the outflow to the north is bad. I might have kept it at 35 knts.
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Re: Re:

#120 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:44 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Somehow, someway, Douglas is up to 40 knts per the ATCF.

EP, 04, 2014070100, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1147W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 100, 60, 0, 1008, 275, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, M,


Actually, it looks ever so slightly more compact now. Still disorganised but a little better than what we were seeing before. Also, ADT estimates bring it up to nearly 45 knots.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 999.9mb/ 43.0kt

Pretty much spot on. Structure still looks too good to be a TD and appears to be consolidating.

Wonder what happens as we head into Dmax.
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