EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

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#141 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:31 pm

Still a tropical storm. I must say, Douglas has done MUCH better than Elida.

04E DOUGLAS 140703 0000 20.1N 116.2W EPAC 35 1004
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#142 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 02, 2014 9:24 pm

Deep convection refiring. Douglas does not want to go away.
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#143 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:13 am

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014

After an earlier burst of convection in the northern semicircle,
thunderstorm activity has been gradually waning over the past few
hours with cloud tops warming during the normal convective maximum
period. However, TRMM and AMSU microwave satellite data indicate
that Douglas has maintained a tight low-level circulation,
including a shallow eye-like feature, so the initial intensity is
being maintained at 35 kt, which is consistent with satellite
estimates of 35 kt from TAFB and 34 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.

Douglas is moving slowly northwestward, or 315/03 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Douglas is expected to steadily weaken and gradually become a more
shallow vortex that will be steered toward the west-northwest or
west by low-level trade wind flow on the south side of the Pacific
subtropical ridge. The official NHC forecast track is basically
just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to but
just south of the consensus model TVCE.

Douglas will gradually weaken throughout the forecast period as the
cyclone ingests cooler and more stable air, and also moves over
sub-24C sea-surface temperatures by 24 hours. Douglas should become
a depression later today, possibly even this morning, and degenerate
further into a remnant low by Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is
consistent with most of the available intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 20.4N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.7N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 22.3N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 23.4N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z 24.3N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#144 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:58 am

I'm surprised this storm is even still alive! :eek:
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#145 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:39 am

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014

Douglas is still producing a small but compact area of deep
convection. Satellite intensity estimates are straddling the
tropical storm threshold, so I am opting to maintain Douglas as a
tropical storm until we get a few visible satellite images and
possibly an ASCAT pass later today. Regardless, cold water and dry,
stable air should cause Douglas to weaken to a tropical depression
soon and degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours.
Dissipation is forecast by day 5.

The initial motion is still slow...320/2 kt. A mid-level high
centered just northeast of Hawaii continues to impede Douglas from
making much westward progress, but this feature is expected to shift
westward during the next 48 hours. At the same time, mid-level
ridging will build over the western United States. Douglas is
therefore expected to turn west-northwestward and accelerate after
36 hours. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted to the
right a bit and lies fairly close to the model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 20.9N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 22.9N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 24.3N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#146 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:13 am

Douglas is a pest. Hey, at least it did not become a hurricane, but it's fighting. Likely due to it's large size and low shear.
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#147 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:22 pm

EP, 04, 2014070318, , BEST, 0, 204N, 1166W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 270, 40, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, M,

30 knts.
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#148 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:35 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014

Douglas's low-level center is located just to the west of a small
area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have
decreased a bit since this morning, and a blend of the Final-T and
CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support
downgrading Douglas to a 30-kt depression. Continued weakening is
forecast while the depression moves over increasingly cooler
water and into a drier, more stable environment. Douglas is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours, but it
could become one earlier if the deep convection diminishes soon.
Dissipation is still expected by day 5.

Douglas continues to creep northwestward with an initial motion of
315/2 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build over the
western United States during the next 48 hours, which should cause
the remnant low to turn west-northwestward and accelerate by days 3
and 4. The model guidance is in good agreement, and no significant
changes were required to the official NHC track forecast in this
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 20.6N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 21.0N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 23.3N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 24.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 25.2N 124.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#149 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:52 am

With King Arthur roaming the ATL I think we forgot this system and left it in the dust :P

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 040233
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014

The center of Douglas is partially exposed to the west of a small
area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates are about
the same as earlier, so 30 kt is kept as the initial wind speed.
Douglas should gradually lose strength over the next few days while
it moves over cold water within a more stable environment. The
latest NHC intensity prediction is about the same as the previous
one. Douglas will likely become a remnant low on Friday while it
traverses sub-24C waters. The low should dissipate in about 4 days
according to the global model guidance.

The depression is moving a little faster toward the northwest at
about 4 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build somewhat
over the western United States during the next 48 hours, which
should cause Douglas or its remnants to speed up a little bit.
Model guidance is virtually unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the
latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous
one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 20.9N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 23.7N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 24.8N 123.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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#150 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:41 am

Looks to be a Tropical Storm again.
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#151 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:01 am

Wow. Still alive.
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Depression

#152 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:08 am

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Douglas consists of a tight swirl of low clouds accompanied by
a small curved band of deep convection to the east of the center.
NHC had estimated that the peak winds were 30 knots, but a
recent ASCAT-B pass shows numerous 35-kt wind vectors associated
with the circulation of Douglas. The initial intensity has thus been
adjusted to 35 knots. This does not mean that Douglas has
restrengthened. Instead, the lack of data earlier led us to a lower
wind estimate. Nevertheless, the cyclone is over 24 degree Celsius
water and weakening to a remnant low in a day or so is still
anticipated.

The initial motion is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 5
knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next
24 to 48 hours with a gradual turn to west as the subtropical ridge
to the north of the cyclone builds westward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 21.3N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 21.8N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 22.4N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 23.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 24.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 25.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#153 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:11 am

STILL a tropical storm on 12:00 Best Track!

04E DOUGLAS 140704 1200 21.4N 117.8W EPAC 35 1006
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#154 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:58 am

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Douglas may well have weakened to a tropical depression since the
time of an overnight ASCAT pass, given that deep convection
associated with the storm has shrunk in size and become displaced
well southeast of the center. However, we'll hold Douglas as a
tropical storm a while longer pending a more definitive indication
of weakening. With some northwesterly shear and a forecast track
that takes Douglas over even cooler waters, the cyclone should
degenerate into a remnant low soon. The NHC intensity forecast is
the same as the previous one and shows remnant low status within 24
hours.

The initial motion is 310/05. A building low- to mid-level ridge
over the western United States should steer the storm northwestward
and then west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed until
dissipation in about 72 hours. This is in agreement with the latest
model guidance and just a bit slower than the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 21.6N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 22.1N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 23.0N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 23.8N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 24.6N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 25.9N 125.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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#155 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:04 am

Douglas is pulling an Irwin 11.
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#156 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 2:20 pm

STILL a tropical storm?

04E DOUGLAS 140704 1800 21.6N 118.3W EPAC 35 1006

But this is amazing! :ggreen:
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#157 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:37 pm

Still a tropical storm on 21:00 UTC advisory!

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 042034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014

...DOUGLAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 118.6W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST. DOUGLAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#158 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:42 pm

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 042038
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Even though Douglas has been devoid of deep convection for about six
hours, a 1716 UTC ASCAT overpass indicated a patch of wind near
tropical-storm strength north-northwest of the center. Therefore,
the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. With the
cyclone now over 23-degree C water and embedded in a dry and very
stable air mass, it seems unlikely that any deep convection would
re-develop. Douglas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low
within 12 hours, and the circulation of the decaying cyclone should
gradually spin down during the next couple of days.

The initial motion estimate is 305/05, a little to the left than
before. A low-level ridge of high pressure west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula should keep the cyclone moving
west-northwestward or northwestward until dissipation in about 3
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 21.8N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 22.4N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/1800Z 23.3N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z 24.1N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 24.9N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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#159 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:48 pm

Amazing! Wow, this storm is like Irwin 11 all over again. Ok, maybe not. But still, I love when storms do this.
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Re:

#160 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:32 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Amazing! Wow, this storm is like Irwin 11 all over again. Ok, maybe not. But still, I love when storms do this.


I like it too. But I think this will be its last advisory as a tropical storm, because convection is really weak right now and waters are very cold.
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