EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114508
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: FOUR-E-Tropical Depression

#81 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 29, 2014 3:41 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Satellite images suggest that the depression's cloud pattern has not
become better organized since this morning. Deep convection near
the center has decreased, while convection remains concentrated in a
long band over the western semicircle of the circulation. A partial
ASCAT overpass at 1722 UTC continues to indicate a large and
sprawling cyclonic envelope associated with the depression, with the
strongest winds well removed from the center of circulation. Dvorak
intensity estimates are a 2.5 and 2.0 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively, at 1800 UTC. Given the lack of change in the system's
organization, the initial intensity estimate is maintained at 30 kt
for this advisory.

The center is still not obvious, even in visible satellite imagery,
and thus the initial motion estimate, or 295/14, is as uncertain as
it was previously. The cyclone should continue to move at a fast
clip on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is
forecast to weaken and shift westward during the next couple of days
when a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moves into the
California coast. This should cause a notable reduction in the
forward speed of the cyclone during this time, with the track
becoming more westerly after that once the storm becomes more
shallow in nature. The NHC track forecast remains on the left side
of the guidance envelope, slightly to the left of and slower than
the previous one through 36 hours. The forecast track is adjusted
to the right and is slower beyond 36 hours but is not as far right
as the ECMWF, GFS, and multi-model consensus TVCE.

Low shear and warm waters along the depression's track should favor
intensification for another day or possibly two, but the large size
and slow evolution of inner core suggests that any strengthening
will only be gradual. Cooler waters and a drier and more stable
atmosphere should bring any intensification to a halt in about two
days, with slow but steady weakening after that time in the absence
of any significant shear. The thermodynamics should become
increasingly unfavorable late in the forecast period, and remnant
low status is now forecast on day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is
a bit lower than the previous one and close to the multi-model
consensus IVCN through 72 hours but a bit lower after that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.5N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 17.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 17.6N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 18.7N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 18.8N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.9N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 18.8N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#82 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 29, 2014 3:58 pm

While I think there's evidence that it is a TS, it's not obvious.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#83 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 29, 2014 4:54 pm

04E has the structure of a CATL storm with it's dry air.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#84 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 29, 2014 6:50 pm

Convection popping over the COC. Structure looks really nice.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114508
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: FOUR-E-Tropical Depression

#85 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:46 pm

TS Douglas on next advisory unless something happens at the last minute.

EP, 04, 2014063000, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1126W, 35, 1003, TS
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2693
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

#86 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:48 pm

Bonsoir Douglas, comment ça va?
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

stormcruisin

#87 Postby stormcruisin » Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:56 pm

Image

Meh
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#88 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:28 pm

04E looks okay IMO. There's sufficient convection, so it's probs around 35 knts. Well defined LLC but organization-wise not the best. Reminds me of Nadine when it first formed for the first time around.
0 likes   

stormcruisin

#89 Postby stormcruisin » Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:33 pm

Image
Ascat was useless maybe just my eyes llcc looks to be elongated on sat-pic.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re:

#90 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:43 pm

stormcruisin wrote:Image
Ascat was useless maybe just my eyes llcc looks to be elongated on sat-pic.


It's not prefect, but more likely than not a TS based on the deep convection it has. Don't be overly critical :P Still, it's a large WPAC like monsoonal system.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114508
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm

#91 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:48 pm

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014

The satellite appearance of the tropical cyclone has improved
during the past several hours. Deep convection has increased near
the center and the primary band wraps farther around the southern
and southwestern portions of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers are
a consensus 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is
increased to 35 kt. Douglas becomes the fourth tropical storm of
the 2014 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Although Douglas has recently been moving more westward, the
longer-term initial motion estimate is 295 degrees at 14 kt.
Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward during the next few
days while it remains to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge
that extends from the southwestern United States westward across the
eastern Pacific. The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next
couple of days which should cause a reduction in forward speed of
the tropical cyclone. Later in the period, Douglas should turn
westward as it weakens and becomes a more shallow system. Although
the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is
quite a bit of spread later in the period as to how far north
Douglas gets before making the westward turn. For now, the NHC
track forecast remains along the southern edge of the model
envelope. This is close to the previous advisory and is in good
agreement with the latest ECMWF.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. The main inhibiting
factor is still likely to be the large and sprawling structure of
the cyclone. After that time, Douglas will be moving over gradually
decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
environment. This should cause gradual weakening and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 16.4N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 17.0N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 18.4N 116.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.6N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 18.8N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 18.8N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#92 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:17 pm

Our boy Douglas seems to have begun wrapping up tightly near the COC. Let's see if it can get a CDO going and if the process of strengthening takes off.

Or dry air wins again...

Image
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#93 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:21 pm

I'm just itching for a decent microwave pass. All of them have been pathetic.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re:

#94 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:37 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Our boy Douglas seems to have begun wrapping up tightly near the COC. Let's see if it can get a CDO going and if the process of strengthening takes off.

Or dry air wins again...

Image


This season it's been EPAC 2, Dry air 0. It's a ways off from acquiring a CDO IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11212
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re:

#95 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I'm just itching for a decent microwave pass. All of them have been pathetic.


Eh, no major need. I don't think there is an eyewall.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: Re:

#96 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:33 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:I'm just itching for a decent microwave pass. All of them have been pathetic.


Eh, no major need. I don't think there is an eyewall.


No eyewall, but doesn't look far from developing an inner core.

Image
0 likes   
Image

stormcruisin

#97 Postby stormcruisin » Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:09 am

Image
Finaly caught the whole system cant find any wind barbs over 30 knots . And yeah its elongated to some extent.

Note: The flags that are black are considered rain contaminated and they are not valid.



Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#98 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:43 am

Solid curved band. No reason for this to not be a TS.

Image
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9769
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#99 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:44 am

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Douglas has changed little in organization since the last advisory
package. The tropical cyclone has some banding features, but
continues to have limited deep convection near its center. The
current intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and data from an ASCAT overpass. This is
only slightly below the latest objective Dvorak estimate from
UW/CIMSS.

Latest center fixes show a considerable deceleration, and the
initial motion estimate is 300/8, much slower than previous
estimates. Apparently there has been a substantial weakening of
the mid-level ridge to the north of Douglas. The global models
show a slight weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north of the
tropical cyclone for the next 72 hours or so. This should result
in an even slower forward motion toward the west-northwest or
northwest. Late in the forecast period, the ridge strengthens
somewhat to the north of Douglas, and this, along with steering
by the low-level flow, should cause the weakening cyclone to turn
toward the west with some increase in forward speed. The latest
official forecast is slower than the previous one, and quite close
to the newest dynamical model consensus.

The storm is already moving over slightly cooler waters, but there
is well-defined upper-tropospheric outflow over the system.
Vertical shear should remain weak for the next few days, and given
the favorable dynamics, some strengthening is still forecast. The
official wind speed forecast is a little above the latest intensity
model consensus, IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 16.6N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 18.0N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.5N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 18.8N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Image

stormcruisin

Re:

#100 Postby stormcruisin » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:32 am

Imo its all down hill from this point for both these weak systems.
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest