ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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TheEuropean
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ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:31 am

Here we go:

Image
Saved image, source: NRL

Edit: Here we find the discussion in Talkin' Tropics:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116418
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:44 am

AL, 91, 2014062712, , BEST, 0, 343N, 813W, 15, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2014062718, , BEST, 0, 338N, 807W, 15, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2014062800, , BEST, 0, 334N, 801W, 15, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2014062806, , BEST, 0, 329N, 794W, 15, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2014062812, , BEST, 0, 325N, 786W, 20, 1016, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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#3 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:44 am

Very interesting. No invest yet even with the higher formation numbers. Absolutely no mention on local weather about the low becoming tropical. As far as I can see no model support (nada from GFS, complete turnaround from the ghosts in the gulf). Looks like Euro has it retrograde into Ga then out at NC. But as far as I can see, none of the respected models make much of it. Maybe models are right and nothing will come of it.
Beautiful blob though this am.

LOL, just as I was going to post it became an invest.
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#4 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:46 am

Definitely looking better with time. I am curious to see when NHC will schedule a Recon mission. I would have to think it will be soon, given the proximity to the coast.
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Re:

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:16 am

northjaxpro wrote:Definitely looking better with time. I am curious to see when NHC will schedule a Recon mission. I would have to think it will be soon, given the proximity to the coast.


I made the 91L Recon thread as the TCPOD was released with first mission on Sunday afternoon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:18 am

Quite impressive looking. I put the center about 70 miles SW of NHC's, but it does appear to have a broad, elongated LLC now. As for development chances, I'm thinking better-than-not within 48 hrs and 80% just beyond 48 hrs. Likely a sheared, weak TS that meanders around for a while and either slips ashore and dissipates or gets picked up and accelerated out to sea to the NE.
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#7 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:21 am

As more hd vis satellite images come in, I see a naked eddy NW of the deep convection near 31.4N & 80W racing SSE possibly rotating around a bigger circulation.
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Re:

#8 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:25 am

NDG wrote:As more hd vis satellite images come in, I see a naked eddy NW of the deep convection near 31.4N & 80W racing SSE possibly rotating around a bigger circulation.


Yeah, looks like a broad, elongated area of low pressure presently. Probably has multiple low centers rotating around.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby AJC3 » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:31 am

A GOES RSO (rapid scan ops) will be in effect for at least the next 24 hours, starting at 10:15 AM, in order to monitor this low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby ronjon » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:37 am

wxman57 wrote:Quite impressive looking. I put the center about 70 miles SW of NHC's, but it does appear to have a broad, elongated LLC now. As for development chances, I'm thinking better-than-not within 48 hrs and 80% just beyond 48 hrs. Likely a sheared, weak TS that meanders around for a while and either slips ashore and dissipates or gets picked up and accelerated out to sea to the NE.


None of the models really strengthen it much. The GFS, Euro, and NAVGEM sort of drift it south and then west or northwest into N Fl or Georgia. Others like the CMC take it out to sea toward the NE. Steering currents look weak over the next 48 hrs or so. There is a weak ULL over the western Bahamas so don't know if that'll inhibit development chances. Something to watch no doubt.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:42 am

so look like going move a bit more south and move ne out to sea
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:56 am

floridasun78 wrote:so look like going move a bit more south and move ne out to sea



GFS & Euro for the last couple of days have been showing the low to move south and or meander around for the next 2-3 days before being possibly picked up by a trough swinging through the Great Lakes later next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:16 am

This setup reminds me a lot of Alex in '04 though I am NOT thinking another Alex is on the way. Just a similar overall setup. Just my personal opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby tolakram » Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:54 am

Here is a live sat loop. I also noticed that Java is no longer required.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:11 am

Interesting area... Conditions seem to be advantageous for development. What you all think?

My full synopsis for Atlantic and Pacific including NHC Invest 91L: http://goo.gl/3ccXV3

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:16 am

tolakram wrote:Here is a live sat loop. I also noticed that Java is no longer required.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10



Since last hurricane season the MSFC/NASA site has made it to where Java is not required, which is pretty nice because we can access the loop from iPhones/iPads, at first they had some minor glitches but in the past few months it has been working pretty well.

But going back to this subject clearly seen that surface circulation is broad at the moment with perhaps some light northerly mid level shear but conditions will improve in the next 24-48 hrs as it drifts southward as indicated by the models.
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#17 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:28 am

It's a nice little blob... :)

I wonder if it will affect my area or not. NWS has the highest rain chances capped at 40% which is on Monday.
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#18 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:38 am

SeGaBob, only if the system drifted west would be if the SE GA or even my area would see any effect from 91L. The region will remain on the subsident side of the system, which will keep hot and dry conditions going, unless 91L drifted towards the coast in the next 48-72 hours. Some of the models do show 91L getting close to shore before moving northeast by the middle of next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:39 am

AJC3 wrote:A GOES RSO (rapid scan ops) will be in effect for at least the next 24 hours, starting at 10:15 AM, in order to monitor this low.


Here it is.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15
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#20 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:42 am

northjaxpro wrote:SeGaBob, only if the system drifted west would be if the SE GA or even my area would see any effect from 91L. The region will remain on the subsident side of the system, which will keep hot and dry conditions going, unless 91L drifted towards the coast in the next 48-72 hours. Some of the models do show 91L getting close to shore before moving northeast by the middle of next week.



I guess it's a wait and see sort of thing for now but a interesting system either way. It would be nice to get some short term relief from the heat and humidity though. (Maybe down where you are too.)
Last edited by SeGaBob on Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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