Alyono wrote:Please read what I post before commenting. I explained that SHIPS is an average. Furthermore, systems from a nontropical origin do form in higher shear enviroinments. If shear was only 10 KT, you wouldn't have the convection that far south of the center
As I said, shear is quite light to the SW. If this moves like the EC indicates, this will blow up. However, it has YET to encounter these conditions
ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- 'CaneFreak
- Category 5
- Posts: 1475
- Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
- Location: New Bern, NC
Re: Re:
Yeah but it is already heading in the direction of the lower shear and the developing anticyclone. In fact, the current CIMSS analysis shows a well defined 700-850 mb vorticity lobe just north of the 30 N parallel off of the SC coast almost right underneath the developing anticyclone. Once it consolidates into one cohesive vortex (getting rid of the multiple swirls), it will be off to the races. Shear shouldn't be a problem. 55-60 knots from the EC is respectable in my opinion.
0 likes
- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
- hurricanefloyd5
- Category 5
- Posts: 1659
- Age: 43
- Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
- Location: Spartanburg
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2903
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Note: If you're looking for live satellite coverage of this, go to the NRL Tropical Cyclones page. The SSD floaters have been down since 17:15 today.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- 'CaneFreak
- Category 5
- Posts: 1475
- Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
- Location: New Bern, NC
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
No. But it is moving into a more favorable environment. That's the takeaway msg this evening. Got it?
hurricanefloyd5 wrote:Is td #1 forming?
0 likes
The NHC web site seems to be having a problem at present (last satellite photo on their site is from 1715Z) - here's a link to the CIMSS site for current images of my non-system : )
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9606
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Impressive banding taking shape..i'd put the odds at 80-90% of TD minmal TS before heading out to sea. Heavy rains for FL.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139080
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles southeast
of the coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for gradual development of this system while
it drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Florida
during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Sunday afternoon,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles southeast
of the coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for gradual development of this system while
it drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Florida
during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Sunday afternoon,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re:
Alyono wrote:while the chances of development appear too low, there was not a reason to increase the odds since 18Z. Not much change in organization and most models actually trended weaker (aside from EC)
The GFS has never done much with 91L, so which other models have trended weaker?
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6355
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Impressive banding taking shape..i'd put the odds at 80-90% of TD minmal TS before heading out to sea. Heavy rains for FL.
I don't see heavy rains from Florida with this, they are on the drier side!
0 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Beginning to see a blow-up of convection up near where I believe is the broad center about 100 miles east of Charleston, SC. 91L still has a broad circulation, but gradually it is slowly organizing. I think we may see a TD by the time Recon gets in there tomorrow afternoon.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1704
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
That six plus hour jump is very deceiving. Wait till the loops are clean again to get an accurate picture.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2903
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
91L INVEST 140628 1800 32.1N 78.2W ATL 20 1017
Pressure is very high and strangely, it has increased a little since the last Best Track. Maybe if this forms we could see a >1010 mbar tropical cyclone?
Pressure is very high and strangely, it has increased a little since the last Best Track. Maybe if this forms we could see a >1010 mbar tropical cyclone?
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
OuterBanker wrote:That six plus hour jump is very deceiving. Wait till the loops are clean again to get an accurate picture.
I was not aware of the jump in the loop. Thanks for letting me be aware of it. I am just checking in this evening
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:91L INVEST 140628 1800 32.1N 78.2W ATL 20 1017
Pressure is very high and strangely, it has increased a little since the last Best Track. Maybe if this forms we could see a >1010 mbar tropical cyclone?
Yeah, region-wide pressures are high. That's not necessarily a deterrent to development. The ECMWF shows this deepening into the low 990s.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
OuterBanker wrote:That six plus hour jump is very deceiving. Wait till the loops are clean again to get an accurate picture.
Now the loop looks clean again.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 110 guests