ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Morning everyone,

Looking at the visible Sat loop seems all the convection is on the east side from south to north. But nothing to the west to speak of, if this is going to get going, it better start producing some storms on the west side to get pulled in to the COC.

[northjaxpro]

There is some dry air infiltrating the west side of the circulation, but the thinking is that in time this should not be a significant factor to inhibit development. Generally, the atmosphere off the SE US coast should be sufficiently moist to support tropical cyclone development, along with an anticyclone about to be right over 91L.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I agree with you north,

am a bit curious how far south and west this might drift before getting picked up and turned to the NE.

[gatorcane]

Saved visible loop, showing the improving structure of 91L:

[Miami Storm Tracker]

nice shot Gator,

Just when I post about the lack of storms to the west of the COC, I can see them forming and rapping around.

[Nimbus]

I agree with you north,

am a bit curious how far south and west this might drift before getting picked up and turned to the NE.

Yesterday recon was thinking 30.0N 78.0W at 15:45 PM. Actual position should be at least a half degree further both south and east. That is a big difference for the models to catch up on. Means the system spends more time over simmering gulf stream waters and will respond to the next front later.

I'm surprised storm2k hasn't been flooded with posts yet, guess most posters don't see the potential from satellite presentation.

['CaneFreak]

Main problem is the fact that this thing is still attached to the front.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

[CFLHurricane]

So is when is this likely to threaten florida, if at all?

And at what strength?

[weathernerdguy]

it would be a 50 mph tropical storm at most to me. That's if it would manage to make landfall in Florida

[tropicwatch]

Still a fairly impressive circulation and a possible westward drift starting.

[NDG]

Main problem is the fact that this thing is still attached to the front.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

I really disagree with this image, there's is a front but is a good 150-200 miles north of 91L, IMO.

[northjaxpro]

So is when is this likely to threaten florida, if at all?

And at what strength?

As far as when this system could impact the East Coast of Florida, this could happen as early as tomorrow night into Tuesday. The models are coming into general agreement that 91L will loop to the southwest and impact the Florida coast or at least brush up the coast before being picked up by the trough by mid week. But, for me, how far south 91L drifts will be the key factor. The longer it drifts more south, I think it would allow for the system to sit out over the Gulf Stream for a longer period of time and thus could allow for 91L to strengthen into a formidable tropical cyclone.

Lots to pay attention to in the next 72 hours for sure.

[AJC3]

Main problem is the fact that this thing is still attached to the front.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

That's not really a problem. While that frontal boundary is drawn down toward the low center, surface and C-Man reports don't support it being that far south. The temperature and dew point discontinuity is diffuse, shallow and displaced well to the north of the low center. Any air mass change in the northern quadrant of the circulation has pretty much been modified by the warm ocean temps.

[NDG]

Recon has been canceled for this afternoon, scheduled for tomorrow morning at 12z

['CaneFreak]

Awful lot of dry air though

Main problem is the fact that this thing is still attached to the front.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

That's not really a problem. While that frontal boundary is drawn down toward the low center, surface and C-Man reports don't support it being that far south. The temperature and dew point discontinuity is diffuse, shallow and displaced well to the north of the low center. Any air mass change in the northern quadrant of the circulation has pretty much been modified by the warm ocean temps.

[cycloneye]

Sundays mission was canceled

[AJC3]

Awful lot of dry air though

Main problem is the fact that this thing is still attached to the front.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

That's not really a problem. While that frontal boundary is drawn down toward the low center, surface and C-Man reports don't support it being that far south. The temperature and dew point discontinuity is diffuse, shallow and displaced well to the north of the low center. Any air mass change in the northern quadrant of the circulation has pretty much been modified by the warm ocean temps.

Right, but it's not a frontal low per your OP.

[capepoint]

still looks like a lot of shear right now..might get it together fairly rapidly once that relaxes...



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[NDG]

Awful lot of dry air though

Main problem is the fact that this thing is still attached to the front.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

That's not really a problem. While that frontal boundary is drawn down toward the low center, surface and C-Man reports don't support it being that far south. The temperature and dew point discontinuity is diffuse, shallow and displaced well to the north of the low center. Any air mass change in the northern quadrant of the circulation has pretty much been modified by the warm ocean temps.

I don't think the dry air in the mid levels has been that much of a problem, the problem has been the light to moderate northerly shear pushing the convection trying to organize south of the COC.
The dry air has been pushing to the south to the east of the circulation and little by little pulling away.

['CaneFreak]

Ok. HPC's analysis can definitely be off at times but didn't realize it was that far off. Appreciate your assistance.

Right, but it's not a frontal low per your OP.