ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

91L INVEST 140628 1800 32.1N 78.2W ATL 20 1017

Pressure is very high and strangely, it has increased a little since the last Best Track. Maybe if this forms we could see a >1010 mbar tropical cyclone?

Well that is a lot of high pressure over the Western Atlantic/Eastern US.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My new analysis on 91L and other areas in Atlantic and Western Pacific: http://goo.gl/U40CFC

What you all think?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Diurnal minimum is making the center easy to discern this evening. Looks like a slow southward drift. System looks much more consolidated than earlier; would love an ASCAT pass.

[SouthernBreeze]

My new analysis on 91L and other areas in Atlantic and Western Pacific: http://goo.gl/U40CFC

Hi Just checked forcast... 1 Typo... its not Charleston, NC!

Otherwise

[Nimbus]

The infrared loop is not very clear but it looks like there may be a semi naked low level surface circulation moving south off Florida this morning. Probably not going to be the primary circulation moving that fast though.

[NDG]

91L not looking good this morning, clearly northerly shear is affecting it, needs to to move west to get away from it for better conditions, the GFS might be right after all.

[cycloneye]

I guess no recon for this afternoon unless it gains convection in the next few hours.

[robbielyn]

It's got a nice spin to it though.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located about 230 miles east of Jacksonville,
Florida, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
as it moves slowly southward. Upper-level winds are only marginally
favorable, and proximity to dry air to the north of the disturbance
could inhibit formation of a tropical cyclone over the next couple
of days. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development of this system
while it drifts southward and meanders offshore of the Florida east
coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[NDG]

It's got a nice spin to it though.

Yes it does, by looking at the hd visible loop this morning, I place the COC near 30.2N and 77.3W
Like I said earlier it needs to start moving more SW to get away from the northern shear but with the trough off the NE US starts moving away starting tonight conditions should improve some.

[robbielyn]

Yes that's exactly where the center is

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2014062912, , BEST, 0, 300N, 777W, 20, 1016, LO

[tropicwatch]

The circulation is very close to being under some pretty good conditions for development.

[Alyono]

close, but it is still under the strong shear and it does not have a westward component to its motion yet

[hurricanefloyd5]

I'm continuing a bear watch for the East Coast of Florida for invest 91

[AJC3]

This should make a pretty close pass to NOAA Buoy 41010 (28.90N, 78.46W) during the next 24-36 hours.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

[NDG]

One thing that has gotten better for 91L is of a more distinct banding and tighter surface circulation compared to yesterday.
Where I placed the X is not necessarily where I think the COC is, it is still somewhat broad with not distinct LLC that I can see, IMO.



This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

I agree NDG, the structure is improving. If the northerly shear lets up, 91L should take off over the warm SSTs. I think the NHC chances of 70% looks good to me.

[NDG]

CIMSS places the UL anticyclone just southwest of the surface low, clearly shear 10-20 knots of shear is over it.

[northjaxpro]

Structure is definitely looking much better compared to yesterday. Starting to see spiral banding and outflow is beginning to also improve. I think 91L is becoming better organized and I expect to see Arthur within the next 24 hours.

I will be interested to see the next set of EURO runs later today. Have to watch this very closely. I am beginning to wonder just how far south 91L will drift and just how close it will get to the coast in the next 72 hours while it meanders around in weak steering currents before getting picked up by the trough swinging through the Ohio Valley by the latter part of this week.