ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Chris_in_Tampa
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#2761 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:43 am

Hammy wrote:When will the next plane be out there? It'll be interesting to see what they find, especially with new confection continuing to wrap around.
More recon is now on the way.
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#2762 Postby JtSmarts » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:46 am

Per Jim Cantore:

Hwy 12 is a river. Water completely covering parking lot at Real Water Sports. MAJOR SOUND FLOODING AT THIS TIME. My crew is safe.
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#2763 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:51 am

Cantore claimed they recorded a 103mph gust in Waves. He missed the really intense inner eyewall stuff that passed him just north of Rodanthe.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2764 Postby xironman » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:56 am

Pack11 wrote:Wind is still absolutely howling in Avon on Hatteras Island, and house is still rocking like crazy. If I didn't know the eye has passed us and gone to the north, I would swear we were in it right now! Knock on wood, but it's amazing that we have not lost power or even cable all night.

Any water under the house?
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#2765 Postby Pack11 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:57 am

JtSmarts wrote:Per Jim Cantore:

Hwy 12 is a river. Water completely covering parking lot at Real Water Sports. MAJOR SOUND FLOODING AT THIS TIME. My crew is safe.



I live on a canal on the soundside (sound is only a couple hundred yards away) in Avon and the water rushed back in about 45 minutes ago and overwashed the bulkhead quickly. My yard and the entire street literally looks like a river.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2766 Postby xironman » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:08 am

The tri-villages are the bulls eye for this one (again), hope you don't end up stuck with the emergency ferry.
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#2767 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:20 am

Water continues to rise at Oregon Inlet. Now 3.5' of surge.

edit: Already looks to be tightening up now that he's cleared the coast.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2768 Postby got ants? » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:36 am

adam0983 wrote:Does anyone think Hurricane Arthur will be a Category 2 Hurricane on the next advisory at 11am?


I went to work shortly after this post. I looked at the NHC forecast at that time and it still had Arthur at cat 1 and going offshore. It seems to me all the ameteurs on here were calling it to strengthen, and make landfall. How did NHC get it so wrong?
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2769 Postby xironman » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:40 am

Seeing it is quiet, here is the traffic cam just north of Rodanthe https://tims.ncdot.gov/TIMS/Cameras/vie ... _Beach.jpg
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2770 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:45 am

got ants? wrote:
adam0983 wrote:Does anyone think Hurricane Arthur will be a Category 2 Hurricane on the next advisory at 11am?


I went to work shortly after this post. I looked at the NHC forecast at that time and it still had Arthur at cat 1 and going offshore. It seems to me all the ameteurs on here were calling it to strengthen, and make landfall. How did NHC get it so wrong?


Track forecasting is becoming very, very good, but intensity is still incredibly difficult to forecast. It is essentially not much better than guesswork. But I would disagree that they were "so wrong"--the intensity forecast was pretty good in this case.

As for the amateurs here, we almost always call for strengthening.
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#2771 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:53 am

Just about 4' of surge at Oregon Inlet now.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2772 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:05 am

HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

...6 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF ARTHUR MOVING AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...

A WEATHERFLOW STATION AT OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...99 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
80 MPH...129 KM/H. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87
KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 75.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF KITTY HAWK NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2773 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:06 am

Saved Image:
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#2774 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:50 am

Gonna get a SW to NE recon pass here shortly. Waiting to see the pressure before I go to sleep!
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#2775 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:55 am

The curfew has been lifted at Emerald Isle. The fireworks will be held tonight at 9. We were blessed to have escaped with little damage on the Crustal Coast. Our prayers and thoughts go out to those in the OBX and those in the counties to our north who suffered damage. It was a good drill for all of us on the Crystal Coast.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2776 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:56 am

It is still early meant Crystal Coast.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2777 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Jul 04, 2014 6:05 am

I lost my pass word but now I am back on. Thanks to everyone associated with Stork 2 k for all of their help. I will be making a donation today!! This site is so good for keeping up with the storms and it is good to read all of the remarks. It is interesting that some of the Pro Mets and Joe B predicted Home Grown Storms this year. Arthur was truly a Home Grown Storm.

Thanks again STORM 2 k.
:flag: :flag: Happy Birthday America!!!
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#2778 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 04, 2014 6:10 am

First pass has an extrapolated pressure of 973.9mb
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2779 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 04, 2014 6:34 am

arthur was an over achiever; we had more action in the last week then we had all of last year...heading to key west in a couple of weeks; lets see if we can put something on the map in that part of the world

not very difficult to get high water in key west

had two rounds of tstorms yesterday in fll...arthur influenced us for almost a week

hopefully not too many kids get denied 4th of july festivities; vacationers all left so they can find stuff inland; i suspect most locals stayed as 1 or 2 is not exactly rare for people that live there..takes 3+ for keys residents to even consider moving and consider means maybe but probably not

watching twc; really think media needs to quit wading around in flood waters...we get it, there is high water; problem is people see that and think yeah that looks cool and do it and there are live wires, stuff under and in the water; its really the most dangerous part of these storms

kids were electrocuted in flood waters sofla about 15 years ago in the no name storm..one went in and was jolted and the others followed in to rescue and none of them survived that foray into high water
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2780 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 04, 2014 6:35 am

xironman wrote:Seeing it is quiet, here is the traffic cam just north of Rodanthe https://tims.ncdot.gov/TIMS/Cameras/vie ... _Beach.jpg


Wow, so where's the road?
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