ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: Re:

#2801 Postby weathernerdguy » Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:51 am

TheEuropean wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:Now where is Bertha going to appear?


This is the Arthur-thread and he is still alive...

I know.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2802 Postby Frank2 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:14 am

Frank2 wrote:
After the last advisory is written in the coming day or two, I hope there will be discussion on how rare a system this is - not many mid-latitude lows from the continental US become hurricanes....



IMO this system is not all that rare. Since the beginning of the year we've been constantly mentioning on here about how just off the SE U.S. has the best chance of seeing some action this season, with that region having the best conditions throughout the entire North Atlantic many expected the bulk of the activity this season could be confined to just off the SE U.S. And what do you know come the end of June/beginning of July we have our first storm and hurricane in the makings just off the SE U.S. aiming to hit Eastern/Outer Banks of NC as a Cat.2 hurricane! I don't see how this storm is all that rare when conditions have been at the very least primed in that region for months! Arthur forming in that region was not all that surprising despite the fact that the first storm of the season in the beginning of July was a hurricane and a Cat.2 at that, and made a U.S. at that strength as well.


Sure conditions off the SE US apparently are more favorable than other areas in the Atlantic right now, but I wasn't referring to that but instead reffering to the origins of the disturbance itself - were it's origins from a Pacific or desert low, or a supercell MCC in Nebraska, etc. that dropped ESE to become Arthur - that would be rare IMO...
Last edited by Frank2 on Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#2803 Postby Rail Dawg » Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:18 am

weathernerdguy wrote:Now where is Bertha going to appear?

I'm with you! Arthur will soon be departing. As always a lot was learned from this one.

Ready for Bertha.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2804 Postby ronjon » Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:20 am

Frank2 wrote:
Frank2 wrote:
After the last advisory is written in the coming day or two, I hope there will be discussion on how rare a system this is - not many mid-latitude lows from the continental US become hurricanes....



IMO this system is not all that rare. Since the beginning of the year we've been constantly mentioning on here about how just off the SE U.S. has the best chance of seeing some action this season, with that region having the best conditions throughout the entire North Atlantic many expected the bulk of the activity this season could be confined to just off the SE U.S. And what do you know come the end of June/beginning of July we have our first storm and hurricane in the makings just off the SE U.S. aiming to hit Eastern/Outer Banks of NC as a Cat.2 hurricane! I don't see how this storm is all that rare when conditions have been at the very least primed in that region for months! Arthur forming in that region was not all that surprising despite the fact that the first storm of the season in the beginning of July was a hurricane and a Cat.2 at that, and made a U.S. at that strength as well.


Sure the conditions off the SE US apparently are more favorable than other areas in the Atlantic right now, but I wasn't referring to that but instead reffering to the origins of the disturbance itself - were it's origins from a Pacific or desert low, or a supercell MCC in Nebraska, etc. that dropped ESE to become Arthur - that would be rare IMO...


I see what your saying Frank and tend to agree. In my mind, probably another analogy might be those MCS complexes that rotate off the southern states into the GOM and eventually develop into tropical entities. But I believe those are fairly rare too.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2805 Postby cpdaman » Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:38 am

Arthur seems to have a very strange lack of fanfare to any degree further up the east coast....Delmarva area included. E jersey Coast....Outer Long Island....even SE mass and the Cape. Now The Weather Channel and NHC have been ALL OVER this , the local media seems perplexingly Blasé "hype wise" which is not necessarily a bad thing. This winter when it "snowed and was colder than ave" GDP drop'd 2.9%. I think the weekend and its economic impacts and the fragility played a very significant part of why the media was not over-hyping. The NHC and TWC sure did their job but it's just an observation.

Arthur is still holding his own but water temps are falling off pretty significantly. I'm over in E mass and I think we are in store for a good bit of water.
Last edited by cpdaman on Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2806 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:40 am

:uarrow:

I agree with you both that the origin of Arthur is fascinating. And yes on the MCS genesis of tropical systems. Seems like they can be overachievers as well. Hurricane Alicia (1983) comes to mind.
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#2807 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:46 am

In a sense, this storm was a lot like 1983's Alicia. Formed out of a mid-latitude MCV that ended up becoming a tropical cyclone.
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Re:

#2808 Postby SootyTern » Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:03 am

CrazyC83 wrote:In a sense, this storm was a lot like 1983's Alicia. Formed out of a mid-latitude MCV that ended up becoming a tropical cyclone.

I was wondering if there were other significant storms that formed like this. Gives a whole new meaning to home-brew!
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Re: Re:

#2809 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:14 am

CrazyC83 wrote:In a sense, this storm was a lot like 1983's Alicia. Formed out of a mid-latitude MCV that ended up becoming a tropical cyclone.

The storm that became Arthur came from MCV that formed in the Gulf of Mexico and went northeast.

SootyTern wrote:I was wondering if there were other significant storms that formed like this. Gives a whole new meaning to home-brew!

Hurricane Danny in 1997 formed from clusters of thunderstorms.
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Re:

#2810 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:17 am

HurriGuy wrote:NHC: Pressure down to 973


I have not seen pressure that low in a while.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2811 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:20 am

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#2812 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:26 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The comparisons of Arthur with Alicia are very interesting. Both indeed had similar origins off a frontal low, albeit in different locations. Both also ramped up quickly before striking where they did.

I know I may be straying from the main topic here, but with this year shaping up to be an El Nino, it is historically more typical for the US to get hit by storms with origins like Arthur than from the deep tropics. This type of storm this year, therefore, does not surprise me at all. The one thing I am slightly surprised with is that it came so early in the year. However, the are three other El Nino years where a hurricane did hit in either June or July: 1972 with Agnes, 1986 with Bonnie, and 1997 with Danny. Yet, only 1986 produced any more hurricane strikes, with Charley coming along in August of that year (a seemingly similar storm to Arthur in a lot of ways, I might add).

There is one other interesting facet about Arthur. By the winds, it is the first category 2 hurricane to hit the US since Ike, and I am not going to try to dispute that. However, what is really compelling is that it also has the highest pressure of any of the hurricanes to hit since Ike! Irene was 952 mb, Isaac 966, and Sandy 945. Arthur checks in with a preliminary reading of 973.

Overall, since I have really been following hurricanes since 1996, I think I would most compare this storm to Bertha in 1996 in terms of winds, pressure, and my guess for overall impact.

Of course, Arthur isn't done. This storm is going to pass dangerously close to Nantucket and Cape Cod, and I think close enough to where some rough weather, including some damaging winds or coastal flooding could easily happen. However, I think it will stay just offshore. In fact, I actually compare this storm now to Edouard in 1996 for New England, although wouldn't be surprised if it comes a little closer with slightly stronger winds. That storm still did some damage there, and if my thinking is right, the potential is there for a bit more than that one, so be prepared and stay safe everyone up there.

-Andrew92
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2813 Postby cryptoz » Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:31 am

Here's a graph of pressure data recorded near 35.90, -75.59 between 03 Jul 2014 18:02 EDT and 04 Jul 2014 10:50 EDT

http://imgur.com/fw8wdDO

Data was recorded by a smartphone using PressureNet. I'm new to the hurricane world - is this interesting data?
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2814 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:39 am

cryptoz wrote:Here's a graph of pressure data recorded near 35.90, -75.59 between 03 Jul 2014 18:02 EDT and 04 Jul 2014 10:50 EDT

http://imgur.com/fw8wdDO

Data was recorded by a smartphone using PressureNet. I'm new to the hurricane world - is this interesting data?


If that data is correct, which I doubt it is, that would be some of the lower pressures we saw. Phone's aren't great as barometers.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2815 Postby cryptoz » Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:44 am

JonathanBelles wrote:If that data is correct, which I doubt it is, that would be some of the lower pressures we saw. Phone's aren't great as barometers.


Yeah, there's likely some offset/bias, since you're correct the data isn't very reliable in terms of absolute pressure in a smartphone. Also, these are not MSLP values, so there could be some altitude-induced noise there too. But the trends are clear at least! Thanks for your feedback.
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#2816 Postby weathernerdguy » Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:48 am

It's funny how Arthur made landfall right around where he departed North Carolina when he was just a low.
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#2817 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:53 am

There is solid evidence indeed that the winds at landfall were of Category 2 strength - SFMR readings were in the mid to high 80s around the time of landfall. By those alone, there might be enough evidence to raise the landfall intensity to 90 kt, although the flight level winds weren't that high at the time.
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#2818 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:16 pm

This was the first exciting storm to track since Sandy back in 2012.
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Re:

#2819 Postby weathernerdguy » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:24 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:This was the first exciting storm to track since Sandy back in 2012.

What about Hurricane Raymond in the Pacific, or are we just talking about the Atlantic?
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#2820 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:56 pm

Recon seems to suggest it has weakened some. Supports an intensity of 70 kt now.
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