ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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psyclone
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Re:

#2821 Postby psyclone » Fri Jul 04, 2014 1:01 pm

weathernerdguy wrote:It's funny how Arthur made landfall right around where he departed North Carolina when he was just a low.

I recall the original system emerging off the SC coast near or a bit south of Charleston.
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#2822 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 1:33 pm

AL, 01, 2014070418, , BEST, 0, 384N, 724W, 75, 978, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 120, 70, 1014, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARTHUR, D,

Down to 85 mph.
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#2823 Postby Time_Zone » Fri Jul 04, 2014 1:59 pm

Looking like it'll be fairly weak by time it gets to N.S

Not surprising, but it is weakening a little quicker than I expected personally.

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2824 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 2:08 pm

Arthur is maintaining a classic hurricane structure on radar showing no signs of extratropical transition

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Re:

#2825 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 2:11 pm

Time_Zone wrote:Looking like it'll be fairly weak by time it gets to N.S

Not surprising, but it is weakening a little quicker than I expected personally.

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Quicker than you thought? Arthur seems to be weakening slowly right now still maintaining its structure. It's forecasted to be at tropical storm strength when it gets to Nova Scotia.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: Re:

#2826 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 04, 2014 2:35 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:Looking like it'll be fairly weak by time it gets to N.S

Not surprising, but it is weakening a little quicker than I expected personally.

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Quicker than you thought? Arthur seems to be weakening slowly right now still maintaining its structure. It's forecasted to be at tropical storm strength when it gets to Nova Scotia.

The NHC was never forecasting this to be a hurricane by the time it reaches Camada, only a strong TS.
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Re:

#2827 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 04, 2014 2:36 pm

Andrew92 wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The comparisons of Arthur with Alicia are very interesting. Both indeed had similar origins off a frontal low, albeit in different locations. Both also ramped up quickly before striking where they did.

I know I may be straying from the main topic here, but with this year shaping up to be an El Nino, it is historically more typical for the US to get hit by storms with origins like Arthur than from the deep tropics. This type of storm this year, therefore, does not surprise me at all. The one thing I am slightly surprised with is that it came so early in the year. However, the are three other El Nino years where a hurricane did hit in either June or July: 1972 with Agnes, 1986 with Bonnie, and 1997 with Danny. Yet, only 1986 produced any more hurricane strikes, with Charley coming along in August of that year (a seemingly similar storm to Arthur in a lot of ways, I might add).

There is one other interesting facet about Arthur. By the winds, it is the first category 2 hurricane to hit the US since Ike, and I am not going to try to dispute that. However, what is really compelling is that it also has the highest pressure of any of the hurricanes to hit since Ike! Irene was 952 mb, Isaac 966, and Sandy 945. Arthur checks in with a preliminary reading of 973.

Overall, since I have really been following hurricanes since 1996, I think I would most compare this storm to Bertha in 1996 in terms of winds, pressure, and my guess for overall impact.

Of course, Arthur isn't done. This storm is going to pass dangerously close to Nantucket and Cape Cod, and I think close enough to where some rough weather, including some damaging winds or coastal flooding could easily happen. However, I think it will stay just offshore. In fact, I actually compare this storm now to Edouard in 1996 for New England, although wouldn't be surprised if it comes a little closer with slightly stronger winds. That storm still did some damage there, and if my thinking is right, the potential is there for a bit more than that one, so be prepared and stay safe everyone up there.

-Andrew92

The thing about Arthur's pressure is all those storms you mentioned were larger in size compared to Arthur, which of course meant lower pressure.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2828 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 2:38 pm

1715z
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Re: Re:

#2829 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The comparisons of Arthur with Alicia are very interesting. Both indeed had similar origins off a frontal low, albeit in different locations. Both also ramped up quickly before striking where they did.

I know I may be straying from the main topic here, but with this year shaping up to be an El Nino, it is historically more typical for the US to get hit by storms with origins like Arthur than from the deep tropics. This type of storm this year, therefore, does not surprise me at all. The one thing I am slightly surprised with is that it came so early in the year. However, the are three other El Nino years where a hurricane did hit in either June or July: 1972 with Agnes, 1986 with Bonnie, and 1997 with Danny. Yet, only 1986 produced any more hurricane strikes, with Charley coming along in August of that year (a seemingly similar storm to Arthur in a lot of ways, I might add).

There is one other interesting facet about Arthur. By the winds, it is the first category 2 hurricane to hit the US since Ike, and I am not going to try to dispute that. However, what is really compelling is that it also has the highest pressure of any of the hurricanes to hit since Ike! Irene was 952 mb, Isaac 966, and Sandy 945. Arthur checks in with a preliminary reading of 973.

Overall, since I have really been following hurricanes since 1996, I think I would most compare this storm to Bertha in 1996 in terms of winds, pressure, and my guess for overall impact.

Of course, Arthur isn't done. This storm is going to pass dangerously close to Nantucket and Cape Cod, and I think close enough to where some rough weather, including some damaging winds or coastal flooding could easily happen. However, I think it will stay just offshore. In fact, I actually compare this storm now to Edouard in 1996 for New England, although wouldn't be surprised if it comes a little closer with slightly stronger winds. That storm still did some damage there, and if my thinking is right, the potential is there for a bit more than that one, so be prepared and stay safe everyone up there.

-Andrew92

The thing about Arthur's pressure is all those storms you mentioned were larger in size compared to Arthur, which of course meant lower pressure.


Yep. We'll see what damage comes from Arthur, but as of right now it looks pretty minimal, so let's hope that continues.

I would actually argue that a lower pressure hurricane has a better chance of causing major damage than a smaller storm with lots of wind but only in a small area. The bigger storms with lower pressures may not have had the highest of wind speeds, but they have impacted larger areas for longer periods of time, and then you can couple that with lots of flooding over those areas as well.

However, when all the damage assessments are complete with Arthur, will that argument stand, or will this storm have proved me wrong? I still think this will end up compared to Bertha when all is said and done, but time will tell.

-Andrew92
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Re: Re:

#2830 Postby Time_Zone » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:05 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:Looking like it'll be fairly weak by time it gets to N.S

Not surprising, but it is weakening a little quicker than I expected personally.

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Quicker than you thought? Arthur seems to be weakening slowly right now still maintaining its structure. It's forecasted to be at tropical storm strength when it gets to Nova Scotia.


I didn't really expect him to begin to weaken yet to be honest. When he hits the cold waters up above he's going to weaken/transition rapidly. He's already weakening, and he's nowhere near the coolest waters yet.
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Re: Re:

#2831 Postby ozonepete » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:39 pm

psyclone wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:It's funny how Arthur made landfall right around where he departed North Carolina when he was just a low.

I recall the original system emerging off the SC coast near or a bit south of Charleston.


You are right psyclone. :)
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#2832 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:53 pm

The eye seems to be tightening up again.

For those interested in what Arthur does up this way, I'm now tracking him on my weather blog. We are coming off a five day heat wave in the region and my neighbors are like now this lol:

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/
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#2833 Postby Time_Zone » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:17 pm

Down to 80 MPH


Weakening very quickly.
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#2834 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:22 pm

Dropsonde suggests pressure down again to 976.
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#2835 Postby arlwx » Fri Jul 04, 2014 4:30 pm

As hopefully a joke:

Never underestimate the power of ONE (cf. Andrew)

And semi-seriously:

May Cantore and all such crews have nothing more severe to play with in the US this season.
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Re:

#2836 Postby ozonepete » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:09 pm

Time_Zone wrote:Down to 80 MPH


Weakening very quickly.


It's doing quite well. Hurricanes moving northward at a fast speed in this area lose their intensity very slowly even as SSTs drop because as the cooler air is ingested from the surface, the top of the troposphere there is lower and thus temperatures aloft get colder as well. Since the thunderstorms that make up the eyewall, like all thunderstorms, are driven and maintained by the large temperature difference between the low levels and the top of the thunderstorm, this allows the thunderstorms to continue to thrive far longer than you would expect, i.e. the large difference between the LCL (lifted condensation level), near the bottom of the thunderstorms, and the top of the storms gets maintained. If you look at Arthur's satellite presentation you can see it's still quite impressive.
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#2837 Postby Time_Zone » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:19 pm

How is the pressure falling? It's over cold water and high shear.

This storm confuses me...
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#2838 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:23 pm

its called QG dynamics
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Re:

#2839 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:26 pm

Time_Zone wrote:How is the pressure falling? It's over cold water and high shear.

This storm confuses me...


Baroclinic forcing I'd say, due to the interaction with the frontal zone.
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Re:

#2840 Postby Time_Zone » Fri Jul 04, 2014 5:40 pm

Alyono wrote:its called QG dynamics


Care to elaborate ? I don't really understand.
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