EPAC: ELIDA - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

[Kingarabian]

Epac cranking em' out!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1905 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972014) 20140628 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140628 1800 140629 0600 140629 1800 140630 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.2N 95.6W 11.4N 97.6W 12.7N 99.6W 14.2N 101.5W
BAMD 10.2N 95.6W 10.9N 97.5W 11.6N 99.4W 12.2N 101.0W
BAMM 10.2N 95.6W 11.6N 97.7W 13.0N 99.7W 14.5N 101.3W
LBAR 10.2N 95.6W 11.1N 97.6W 12.0N 100.1W 12.9N 102.8W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140630 1800 140701 1800 140702 1800 140703 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 102.9W 18.6N 104.9W 20.3N 107.0W 21.0N 109.9W
BAMD 12.8N 102.1W 13.3N 103.0W 13.3N 103.4W 13.1N 104.2W
BAMM 15.9N 102.5W 18.1N 103.6W 19.4N 104.8W 20.3N 106.7W
LBAR 13.7N 105.3W 15.5N 109.0W 17.9N 111.2W 20.4N 114.0W
SHIP 38KTS 42KTS 39KTS 40KTS
DSHP 38KTS 42KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 95.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 93.6W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 91.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Yellow Evan]

40 knts peak per SHIPS? That's low for its first run.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This one should struggle to become anything of significance. Outflow from 96E should keep shear moderate to high for the next few days. Maybe some development thereafter.

[Yellow Evan]

Elida possibly interacting with something to the south. CMC brings Elida to a strong TS. Differs from the HWRF/GFS family of models in track.

Euro brings either 96E or 97E to hurricane intensity.

[Kingarabian]

ECMWF forecast of having low pressures all over the Eastern Pacific basin is so far correct. Just look at all those lows.

[cycloneye]

A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is
possible over the next few days while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

The two systems are very close. The setup reminds me a little of 2011's Irwin and Jova, which were very close like this at one point. It's interesting to have two systems this close, because we get to see which one can make it and which one does not, or if both die or if both make it.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 290056
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972014) 20140629 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140629 0000 140629 1200 140630 0000 140630 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 96.3W 11.9N 98.2W 13.4N 99.9W 14.9N 101.3W
BAMD 10.6N 96.3W 11.5N 98.0W 12.3N 99.4W 12.7N 100.2W
BAMM 10.6N 96.3W 12.4N 98.0W 14.2N 99.4W 15.7N 100.3W
LBAR 10.6N 96.3W 11.6N 98.3W 12.6N 100.6W 13.3N 103.0W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140701 0000 140702 0000 140703 0000 140704 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 102.3W 19.1N 103.3W 20.5N 104.3W 21.8N 106.4W
BAMD 12.6N 100.5W 11.2N 101.0W 9.6N 102.8W 8.3N 106.4W
BAMM 16.8N 100.6W 18.0N 100.6W 18.6N 100.5W 19.1N 101.0W
LBAR 14.1N 105.3W 15.2N 108.7W 17.2N 110.9W 20.2N 113.6W
SHIP 34KTS 33KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 34KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 96.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 94.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 92.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

This system may be a big threat to Mexico in terms of copius rains as it will track much closer to land than the TC ahead.

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms as it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at around 10 mph. The proximity of this disturbance
to Tropical Depression Four-E may limit development during the next
couple of days, but environmental conditions are expected to become
favorable for slow development after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

Doesn't look that bad with its strong convection and the hint of banding features here. 4E will probably be the main problem for this.

[cycloneye]

The fast movement of TD-4-E may allow more space and cause more favorable conditions for 97E.

[Yellow Evan]

This IMO has a good chance in a few days. Much like how Henriette 13 took it's sweet time to form st first due it's proximity to Gil.

[Yellow Evan]

Euro develops this. GFS does not.

[cycloneye]

IMO,they may bump the % at 11 AM PDT TWO based on how it looks.

[hurricanes1234]

I can almost say it looks better than 4E right now!

[cycloneye]

A bump to 30%.

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated and better
organized in association with a weak low pressure area located a
couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, this morning. The
proximity of this disturbance to Tropical Depression Four-E could
limit development during the next day or two while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become favorable for slow development
after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

Still, I would not expect development till Tuesday.