WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

It better turn soon or it slams into Taiwan. The question is when the forecast turn to the north finally occurs.

Well,it looks like the turn to the north is starting.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Prayers for Okinawa, as they will have the brunt of a 145 kt super typhoon, the strongest ever possibly to hit the island. As for Mainland Japan, especially Kyushu, this is insane! The JTWC has it as a category 3 typhoon at landfall over the southern main island of Japan.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 135kts.

08W NEOGURI 140707 0000 20.4N 128.2E WPAC 135 922

[hurricanes1234]

00z Best Track up to 135kts.

08W NEOGURI 140707 0000 20.4N 128.2E WPAC 135 922

That's strange! I mean, the cloud tops have warmed around the eye since a few hours ago.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Current OFFICIAL intensity is currently at 95 kts (175 km/h) and 930 hPa.

[StormingB81]

Current OFFICIAL intensity is currently at 95 kts (175 km/h) and 930 hPa.

95 Knots for the 10 Min and 135 mph for the 1 min.....that's the difference

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This has some similarities with typhoon Soulik last year, except that this has a different track, stronger convection and is of course, stronger. The two typhoons (Soulik & Neoguri) were able to survive the dry air, and that they both have large wind fields. Also, a difference is that because of Neoguri having a better structure and stronger convection, this successfully became a super typhoon.

[cycloneye]

The 0300z warning has Neoguri moving close to the west of Okinawa at 145kts.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC 03:00z track has typhoon Neoguri sparing Kadena, and actually, the entire island of Okinawa by a few nautical miles. They will still get strong winds though, as Neoguri has a very large wind field and will be at peak intensity by the time of its closest approach to Kadena, at 145 kts JTWC-105 kts JMA (910 mb pressure as a VIOLENT typhoon) and is still very dangerous, so stay safe Okinawa!

[euro6208]

very weird looking super typhoon. eye is very well defined and clear cut yet deep convection is somewhat looking compared to past storms near category 5 strength.

[euro6208]

135 knots Super Typhoon Neoguri!

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)//
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EXPANSIVE AREAL
COVERAGE AS TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FEEDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN FLANK, WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO A NEW WELL-DEFINED
35-NM EYE. THE 12-HOUR MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE EYEWALL HAS EXPANDED
INTO THIS NEW EYE DIAMETER. THIS IS CAPTURED IN A 062316Z 89 GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AS A HIGHLY REFLECTIVE CONVECTIVE RING. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE THAT IS PROVIDING
HIGHLY-EFFICIENT RADIAL VENTILATION. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE
WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A SECONDARY TROUGH
FURTHER WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN PARA 2, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36,
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND LANDFALL INTO KYUSHU, JAPAN, WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY NEOGURI WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST, AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION BEFORE BECOMING A
FULL-FLEDGED COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

Meanwhile Manila is experiencing the monsoon rain that is being pulled by Neoguri from the west. Typical setup when a typhoon is passing north of the Philippines....

[euro6208]

Some interesting info on Neoguri...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And because of the HUGE cloud cover of Neoguri, it is currently overcast here in Cebu. It is also somewhat unusually windy too.

[Macrocane]

Neoguri's outflow is beautiful



It's really impressive to think that it may still be cat3/cat4 when it reaches Japan.

[hurricanes1234]

Just look at that beautiful and enormous eye! I wonder how wide its diameter is...

[euro6208]

Okinawa is a very small island but has the population of a good sized city, 1,384,762 (as of 2009). let's hope this turns away from them...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GEM analyzes Typhoon Neoguri as a strong tropical storm.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Okinawa is a very small island but has the population of a good sized city, 1,384,762 (as of 2009). let's hope this turns away from them...

Actually, in the latest JTWC & JMA forecast tracks, Neoguri is WEST of the island of Okinawa, so they may be spared from a direct hit. Yet, its large wind field may bring 100-130 mph winds to Okinawa.

[StormingB81]

From Space...