WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[stormcruisin]

looks to have a very good alley with low shear.





lows to left lows to right looks like you stuck in the middle euro6208.

[stormcruisin]

Should be upgraded now has 40 knots winds on the ascat.
Its a TD now.

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N
150.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO A
SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020329Z
NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 020013Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH UP TO 20 KNOT WIND BARBS FEEDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS, EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Wow. This Invest is organising fast. May have TS Status this time tomorrow.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TCFA Issued.

WTPN21 PGTW 022000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0N 148.2E TO 12.0N 143.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 147.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 148E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH ADDITIONAL
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST FEEDING
INTO THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENT IN THE 021210Z ASCAT PASS. A 021609Z AMSU
89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032000Z.//

[stormcruisin]

TD
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 3 July 2014

<Analyses at 03/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°40'(8.7°)
E146°00'(146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°)
E143°20'(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle

[stormcruisin]

Latest data has it at 35knots
2014JUL03 010100 2.5 997.0 +0.0 35.0

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... Y-list.txt

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html

[ManilaTC]

And we now have 08W...

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951Z JUL 14//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 8.9N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 10.1N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 11.2N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 12.5N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.1N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.1N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.8N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.8N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 146.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 030000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND
040300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 021951Z JUL 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 022000).//
NNNN

[euro6208]

8th Tropical Cyclone of the season!

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A HIGHLY ELONGATED AND
SLOPPY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. A 022226Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A HIGHLY CHAOTIC LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WHILE THE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FLARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS A STRONG (25 TO
30 KNOTS) WESTERLY WIND BURST CONTINUES TO PERSIST TO THE SOUTH AS
NOTED IN A RECENT 022353Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGHLY ELONGATED
NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS CONGRUENT WITH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 08W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 72 AS THE STR TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS PERSISTS.
AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY NAVGEM TAKING A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD BIAS IN TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE TO THE
NORTH AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS JAPAN AND
BREAK DOWN THE STEERING STR AND ALLOW FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS THE
SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND GAINS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. LIMITED
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THERE
IS A FAIR SPREAD IN THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHWARD TURN. CONSIDERING
THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND LIMITED GUIDANCE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

latest EURO and GFS forecasting a strong typhoon...

Both passes 08W very close to Guam damaging winds...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030306
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082014
200 PM CHST THU JUL 3 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W HAS FORMED 315 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...9.2N 146.4E

ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 565 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 395 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (08W)
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 146.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON

[stormcruisin]

Think we may see the first cat5 in the North/Hem for this season with this system.

[ManilaTC]

Warning 2 out, JMA and JTWC keep 08W as a TD for now...

WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 9.7N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 10.9N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 12.1N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.3N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.8N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.9N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.1N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 27.7N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 144.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z
AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

[ManilaTC]

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LLCC. A
030519Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED CENTER AND CHAOTIC STRUCTURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT INITIAL POSITION AND TRACK SPEED.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS LIMITED DUE TO
CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE BY KNES. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. THE 03/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG STR ORIENTED EAST-
WEST, EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR TAIWAN. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 135 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY ERRATIC AND, IN GENERAL,
IS TRENDING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON THE LACK
OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM, TD 08W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 THEN AT A GREATER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR
CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
RECURVE WITH A 300 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. TD 08W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU 96 DUE
TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
NNNN

Okinawa may be under the gun, further west also lies Taiwan... still too far out though

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow. This would help regain back our lost ACE! 105 kts for an early warning? Stronger than that would happen

[stormcruisin]

looking close to upgrading again.

Thinking this will be a better system than 110 knots.
More like the next super typhoon.

[phwxenthusiast]

the ECMWF has consistently been on the western side of the guidance envelope. It has been trending east though but kinda interesting to see it playing catch up with the rest of the computer models...

[euro6208]

Not much rain but very very windy easily gusting to 40 mph

[euro6208]

000
WHGM70 PGUM 030628
MWWGUM

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
428 PM CHST THU JUL 3 2014

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WILL CREATE WINDS AND SEAS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GUAM.

PMZ151>154-032000-
/O.NEW.PGUM.SC.Y.0015.140703T0628Z-140706T0600Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
428 PM CHST THU JUL 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CHST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CHST SUNDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SEAS 10 FEET OR GREATER AND
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WILL CAUSE COMBINED SEAS TO RISE FROM 8
TO 10 FEET THIS EVENING TO PEAK BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FEET BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
AND SEAS DROPPING BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID BOATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. IF TRAVEL BY
BOAT IS NECESSARY...EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR REEF LINES
AND WHEN ENTERING OR LEAVING HARBORS AND INLETS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM


000
WWGM80 PGUM 030945
AWWGUM
GUZ001-031800-

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
735 PM CHST THU JUL 3 2014

A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 730 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 400
AM CHST.

WINDS WITHIN 5 NM OF THE AIRPORT WILL BE FROM THE EAST OR 080
DEGREES AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS.

$$

EDSON


000
WWPQ80 PGUM 030759
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
559 PM CHST THU JUL 3 2014

PMZ161-171-032200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
559 PM CHST THU JUL 3 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WILL BRING GUSTY WIND AND RAIN TO PALAU
AND YAP...

AT 400 PM CHST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W WAS CENTERED NEAR
9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 144.7 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
450 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
725 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU

TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
OVERNIGHT. ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TD 08W ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF YAP FRIDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH IT WILL PULL AWAY FROM
YAP TO THE NORTHWEST.

TD 08W IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT YAP AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS
DIRECTLY WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT A BAND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF TD 08W ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL
WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO YAP
AND PALAU OVER THE NEXT ONE OR TWO DAYS.

AT YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS...WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH 4 TO
5 INCHES RAIN LIKELY. WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW DECLINE SATURDAY...BUT
SEAS WILL PEAK AT 9 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT PALAU...WINDS WILL PEAK TONIGHT AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35 MPH...THEN SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE RISKS OF MUDSLIDES ACROSS YAP STATE
AND PALAU...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR YAP. FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND
LOW-LYING AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM FLOODED ROADS AND
PAY ATTENTION TO RISING WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS AND STREAMS.

WINDS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT IN THE WATERS
OF YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT IS NOT RECOMMENDED THROUGH SUNDAY.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING
MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICES.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

The ocean only gets warmer with over 200 along the path...This one will be monstrous...