WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[stormcruisin]

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 13.1N 141.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 141.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.2N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.5N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.9N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.8N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 27.2N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.6N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 140.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM WEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What an awesome, spectacular and impressive storm! AFTER HAIYAN, the season is alive again!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Upgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm! (PLEASE, change the title.)

STS 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 4 July 2014

<Analyses at 04/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25'(13.4°)
E140°55'(140.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE440km(240NM)
NW330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 04/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°55'(14.9°)
E139°10'(139.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 05/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E137°05'(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E133°20'(133.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 07/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20'(21.3°)
E129°20'(129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)

[stormcruisin]

EYE

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040944
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (08W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082014
800 PM CHST FRI JUL 4 2014

...TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI STEADILY INTENSIFYING...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.4N 140.9E

ABOUT 260 MILES WEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 290 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 335 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 345 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 330 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 610 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
NEOGURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE SATURDAY MORNING AT 200 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[stormcruisin]

looks a typhoon now

[euro6208]

I expect an upgrade within the next 12 hours. Rapid intensification is happening now as stated in the discussion.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Haiyan was also forecasted to be a 125-knot category 4 typhoon, similar to Neoguri.

[stormcruisin]

2014JUL04 113200 4.1 977.1 +3.1 67.4 4.1 5.0 6.0

there's a clear eye ADT looks on the mark.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... Y-list.txt

[stormcruisin]

08W NEOGURI 140704 1200 13.7N 140.4E WPAC 60 978

JT'S catching up now.

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

[euro6208]

very impressive storm. looks like an outer band to the north is developing. rapid intensification likely underway...

[euro6208]

Sad day today. Neoguri destroyed our 4th of July plans. The carnival's fireworks was canceled and it doesn't feel like a friday over here...

[euro6208]

UPDATE: Tropical Storm Neoguri brings 35 mph winds, heavy rain to Guam

Hyperlink with embedded video...

Tropical Storm Neoguri made its closest point of approach to the island this morning, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to Guam.

[mrbagyo]

If that eye gets fully wrapped by deep convection and starts to contract, expect this storm to easily bomb into a cat 4 or 5.

very impressive storm. looks like an outer band to the north is developing. rapid intensification likely underway...

yeah, I like that developing western and northern rain band,most intense storms develop that feature. (eg. Muifa, Nida, Haiyan, Cimaron)

[mrbagyo]

Neoguri's path

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 140.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.9N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.2N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.6N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.1N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.0N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 139.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1044 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z,
050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//.

[euro6208]

ECMWF MSLP forecast 72 hours for #Neoguri is 903 mb
(WMO essential)
And GFS at 934 mb





165 knots? We will believe it when it happens...

Talk about a monster!

Update:

Full resolution ECMWF global model peaks #Neoguri at 889 mb MSLP.



https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This should have no problem becoming a Category 5 given extremely warm waters, plenty of moisture, and the development of a massive anticyclone as depicted by the GFS. The 0z ECMWF full-resolution (not WMO-essential) brings this down to 889 millibars.

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

let's change the name of this thread... Neoguri is now a typhoon, as per JMA's last warning

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 4 July 2014

<Analyses at 04/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°10'(14.2°)
E140°00'(140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE500km(270NM)
NW330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 05/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E138°00'(138.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 05/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°00'(17.0°)
E136°00'(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°30'(19.5°)
E132°00'(132.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°00'(23.0°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)