WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Intense...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041538
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (08W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082014
200 AM CHST SAT JUL 5 2014

...TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI NEARING TYPHOON STRENGTH...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.0N 139.9E

ABOUT 330 MILES WEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 355 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 385 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 395 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 285 MILES NORTH OF ULITHI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 595 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 139.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
NEOGURI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER THIS MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.

$$

MCELROY

[euro6208]

PGTW and KNES now saying 4.0...

Typhoon upgrade very likely in the next few hours...

[euro6208]

-80 degrees cloud tops trying to wrap around an intermittent eye while becoming more compact.

[euro6208]

08W NEOGURI 140704 1800 14.6N 139.1E WPAC 65 974

18Z update out...Neoguri, 3rd typhoon of the season!

[Hurricane_Luis]

Typhoon Neoguri



What a storm, A typhoon within about 24 hours of becoming a TS. RI could continue to Cat 4 strength and further.

[euro6208]

Peak intensity is 130 knots, Super Typhoon, and a direct hit for Okinawa.

Won't be surprised if this develops faster than forecast...

[mrbagyo]

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC track.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WOW. I woke up, and Neoguri is already a typhoon! I hope Okinawa won't be horribly and directly hit. Props to CMC & GFS for predicting this typhoon early.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM WEST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS CURVED BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041643Z
165BT MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED AN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS EYEWALL, BROKEN ONLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE
HAS DEVELOPED ITS OWN MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE WHICH IS PROVIDING A
HIGHLY-EFFECTIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW MECHANISM. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AS THE CYCLONE MAKES THE POLEWARD TURN, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY NEOGURI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RECURVE AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYSHU, JAPAN. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 WHEN THE SYSTEM FIRST BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR WESTERN JAPAN. TY
08W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO DECREASING
SST AND, EVENTUALLY, LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO EVEN TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN, THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER THAT IS
BIASED TOWARDS AN UNLIKELY WIDER TURN.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/201408.html.en

I chcecked this link because it has very informarive data (JMA BASED) about the typhoon. What amazed me is that according to them, the 2 most similar typhoons (by both Track and Intensity) to Neoguri 2014 are Hagibis 2002 & Forest 1983. guess it calculates the rate of intensification of the typhoon and also the track.

[euro6208]

KNES up to 5.5!


TXPQ27 KNES 042119
TCSWNP

A. 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 04/2032Z

C. 14.8N

D. 138.5E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH NEOGURI... 2032Z DT
IS ELONGATED DG EYE EMBEDDED JUST BARELY INTO WHITE FOR EYE NO. OF 6.0
WITH RING OF WHITE TO ADD .5 FOR EYE ADJ. FOR CF OF 6.5. THE ELONGATION
SUBTRACTS .5 TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0. MET USING RAPID TREND IS 4.0...WHICH
IS MUCH TO LOW AND IS REJECTED. PT IS BOUND TO 4.5 PER RULES OF BEING
NO GREATER THAN .5 OVER MET WHICH ALSO MAKES IT MUCH TOO LOW AND IS
LIKEWISE REJECTED. LEAVING DT OF 6.0 WHICH WOULD BE GREATER THAN 2.0 IN
6HRS AND 3.5 IN 24HRS BUT ALSO APPEARS TO HIGH GIVEN INCONSISTENCY OF
THE EYE CAUSED BY THE STRONG CONVECTION/ANVIL EXPANSIONS FROM EYEWALL
CONVECTION INTO THE CLEARING EYE. AS A COMPROMISE THE AVERAGE DT WAS
5.5 OVER THE LAST 6HRS WAS 5.5 WHICH STILL EXCEEDS RULES BUT IS MORE IN
LINE WITH ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS SEEN IN MI AND CONVENTIONAL LOOPS. FT
IS 5.5 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/1739Z 14.6N 139.3E SSMI
04/1823Z 14.7N 139.0E AMSU


...GALLINA


CIMSS:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 938.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.2 6.4

[euro6208]

Neoguri has that look of past intense typhoons including haiyan, hallmark convective band on it's west side and deeper convection trying to wrap around the western part of eye with a nice symmetric CDO. This thing is getting ready to explode.

[euro6208]

Euro has neoguri deepening to 891mb, GFS at 929 mb!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO I guess this could set many records regarding its rate of intensification! I will not be surprised if this would intensify to a major, Category 3 typhoon later today. I will also not be surprised for a super typhoon tomorrow, or even possibly a category 5. Waters are very much warmer than normal over the area and shear is decreasing and is very low throughout the path. Also, the typhoon has very impressive banding and outflow, and has gale-force winds extending 830 km (same with Haiyan) right now, and it could even get larger.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Euro has neoguri deepening to 891mb, GFS at 929 mb!

Can you please give me the link to the ECMWF pressure? THANKS ahead ! That is weird that they are extremely bullish despite being known to be a very conservative model.

[hurricanes1234]

Euro has neoguri deepening to 891mb, GFS at 929 mb!

!!!!!!

891 mbar? Ummm.....that's an awfully low pressure!!!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Euro has neoguri deepening to 891mb, GFS at 929 mb!

!!!!!!

891 mbar? Ummm.....that's an awfully low pressure!!!

The action is now here in the WPAC, as it was over the EPAC previously. GFS is expecting 2 more typhoons coming in the WPAC! And yeah, it is very possible it'll deepen to 891 mb, proven by it having a faster intensification rste compared to the first 48 hours of typhoon Forrest 1982.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This is not a minimal typhoon; let's try 105kt, and climbing.