WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#281 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:27 am

Okinawa now in TCCOR 1C which means destructive sustained winds of 50 knots or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#282 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 11:11 am

Collapsing...

Image

Image

The western side of circulation simply falls apart due to dry air penetration, good news for the islands on its way
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#283 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:24 pm

Updated JTWC 3 hour position has eye slightly west of track. This could be big for Miyako Jima and her 50,000 plus residents unless rapid weakening occurs...
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#284 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:31 pm

Image

Satellite can be deceiving...

Just look at how strong and wide the area of winds Neoguri has covered. Damaging winds already occuring...

Image

Well defined eye closing in on Miyako Jima...
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#285 Postby Steve820 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 4:16 pm

Looks like it fell apart a bit:

Image

But Japan still needs to get prepared as it could still get destructive! BTW, all of Japan seems to be in Neoguri's forecast cone except for a tiny northernmost part! :roll:
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#286 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Jul 07, 2014 4:33 pm

Not a Super Typhoon now. Intensity lowered to 110 Kts with continued weakening forecast.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 23.7N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 28.7N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 30.5N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.9N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 35.0N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 41.4N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 126.1E.
TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
//
NNNN
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#287 Postby OzCycloneChaserTrav » Mon Jul 07, 2014 4:58 pm

Josh, James and Mark just reported that they are going to the far south eastern point on the island in the firing line ( too early to try spell or pronounce it ) and are now touching the inner eyewall that has regained some structure.

They were reporting drizzlly, windy and warm conditions in the moat region of the typhoon, however it looks as though the typhoon may have slowed down considerably in the past hour or so.

Im sure now that they are most likely in amongst winds that are likely gusting to 140-150kmhr, I hope for the sake of thier typhoon chase that the eyewall can get a bit closer to their location, however it looks like it may miss them to the east.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#288 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:28 pm

Image

Just to the east of Miyako Jima...
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#289 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:29 pm

Okinawa is now in TCCOR 1C which means winds are now at least 35 knots or higher
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#290 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:31 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA
DEPICT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE ENTIRE EYEWALL BUT WITH GREATER
IMPACT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 110
KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD, WHICH RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. THE EYE DIAMETER HAS
DECREASED FROM 40 TO 30 NM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE EYEWALL HAS STABILIZED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TO THE NORTHWEST OF TY 08W,
HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. RECENTLY, AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN CHINA,
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TY 08W HAS
HINDERED DEVELOPMENT AND IS LEADING TO THE WEAKENING OBSERVED IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUGGESTED AS TY 08W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED NEAR
IWO TO. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST HAS SEVERAL PHILOSOPHY CHANGES AS MODEL GUIDANCE,
RECENT OBSERVATIONS, AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT A CHANGE. THE
PRIMARY CHANGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WAS UNDER
WAY, AND THIS FORECAST SHIFTS TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND WITH NO
EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE WEAKENING TREND WAS ACCELERATED AFTER TY 08W
MAKES LANDFALL. THE SECOND CHANGE IS TO THE TRACK SPEED BEYOND TAU
36. BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE, TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN DECREASED AT
THE TAU 48, 72 AND 96 TIMES.
B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAIN ON A STEADY NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24.
THE DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF TY 08W WILL TRACK
EASTWARD AND CAUSE THE STR TO SHIFT AFTER TAU 24, CAUSING TY 08W TO
TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING
THE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM BUT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE
TROUGH WILL STIFLE THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A STRONGER
WEAKENING TREND BY TAU 48. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN
HAS BEEN SHIFTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS EXPECTED AROUND
00Z ON THE 10TH. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
THROUGH TAU 24, BUT WILL QUICKLY DECREASE ONCE THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
30N. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF TY 08W AFTER TAU 36.
BEYOND TAU 48 A COMBINATION OF THESE ELEMENTS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN JAPANESE TERRAIN, WILL LEAD TO A THE
BEGINNING OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY NEOGURI WILL CONTINUE THE ETT PROCESS,
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER NORTHERN JAPAN AND THE STR. TY NEOGURI IS
EXPECTED TO BY FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#291 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:34 pm

Image

Miyako Jima right now in that nice convective blowup and eyewall...
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#292 Postby beoumont » Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:45 pm

A different colored radar presentation:

Image
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#293 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 6:10 pm

weather obs from miyako jima is down for more than 1 hour 30 min with pressure of 964 mb and 43 gusting to 70 kph...

much be worser by now...
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#294 Postby bzukajo » Mon Jul 07, 2014 6:37 pm

Dazaifu, Fukuoka looks to be in the bullseye for this system. My fiance is there doing research. We have rode out tropical systems before, including Ike in Houston. She has been a little dismissive. I put the brakes on that and had her stock up on water and essentials days ago. I could not believe I had to remind everyone how long it took for us to get gas, water, and electricity after Ike. How quickly we forget, and I think this storm is going to arrive far stronger than Ike.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#295 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 6:57 pm

bzukajo wrote:Dazaifu, Fukuoka looks to be in the bullseye for this system. My fiance is there doing research. We have rode out tropical systems before, including Ike in Houston. She has been a little dismissive. I put the brakes on that and had her stock up on water and essentials days ago. I could not believe I had to remind everyone how long it took for us to get gas, water, and electricity after Ike. How quickly we forget, and I think this storm is going to arrive far stronger than Ike.


No worries though, Our part of the world is more readily prepared than the U.S. Whereas you see mobile homes and weak buildings, everything here is made of concrete. Electricity might fail if ever but should be back up in no time because it's underground. They will see a difference between living here and living in the U.S when it comes to Hurricanes/Typhoons preparedness and aftermath...
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#296 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 7:00 pm

Image

Latest...
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#297 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:17 pm

Okinawa is in TCCOR 1E they are getting winds over 50 knots
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#298 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:20 pm

Kadena getting winds gusting to 85 MPH according to the Kadena weather page...ill have photos soon from my friends juat gotta get on my computer when I get home
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#299 Postby beoumont » Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:52 pm

Memories of typhoons past near MiyakoJima; below is a video frame (super-vhs camera) that my hurricane documentary partner Jim Leonard shot as Super Typhoon Ruth passed east of Miyakojima in 1991. Some of these waves approached 30 feet in height:

Image
Last edited by beoumont on Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#300 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:04 pm

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