HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
300 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...EYE OF ARTHUR MOVING NEAR MAINLAND DARE COUNTY AND NORTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER BANKS...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 75.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9
WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ARTHUR WILL
PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM. A WEATHERFLOW STATION LOCATED NEAR AVON RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 73 MPH...117 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
84 MPH...135 KM/H. A U.S. COAST GUARD STATION JUST WEST OF CAPE
HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 89 MPH...145 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW
ENGLAND WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...1
TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TODAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/LANDSEA
ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
400 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...4 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF ARTHUR REACHES THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...
A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN PAMLICO SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 71 MPH...115 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 84
MPH...135 KM/H.
SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 75.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
400 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...4 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF ARTHUR REACHES THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...
A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN PAMLICO SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 71 MPH...115 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 84
MPH...135 KM/H.
SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 75.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0900 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAPE COD HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD
TO WOODS HOLE.
THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 75.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 75.3W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 76.0W
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.4N 72.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.2N 68.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 240SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 53.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 59.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 63.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 75.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0900 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAPE COD HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD
TO WOODS HOLE.
THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 75.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 75.3W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 76.0W
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.4N 72.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.2N 68.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 240SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 53.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 59.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 63.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 75.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
Arthur still has a well-defined eye in radar imagery, and the
cloud pattern features an area of cold cloud tops wrapping around
the northern and western portions of the circulation as some dry air
works its way into the southern semicircle. Before the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters left Arthur, they measured flight-level winds of
91 kt and SFMR winds of 82 kt, which support maintaining the initial
intensity at 85 kt. The central pressure is set to 973 mb based on
a measurement of 975.5 mb at an NOAA National Ocean Service station
at Oregon Inlet with a wind of 35 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be sampling Arthur later this morning. Gradual
weakening is expected today and tonight, and Arthur will complete
extratropical transition by 36 hours. After passing Nova
Scotia, post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the North
Atlantic.
Arthur is accelerating northeastward, with an initial motion
estimate of 040/20, and a northeastward motion is expected to
continue for the next 48 hours as Arthur recurves ahead of an
advancing mid-latitude trough. The track model guidance is in good
agreement in taking the center of Arthur well offshore of the U.S.
mid-Atlantic coast today and southeast of New England tonight before
moving over Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. After that time, Arthur
is expected to continue across Newfoundland and into the North
Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance
envelope through 72 hours and is close to the GEFS ensemble
mean at days 4 and 5.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 36.0N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 38.4N 72.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 42.2N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0600Z 53.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0600Z 59.0N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 63.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brennan
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
Arthur still has a well-defined eye in radar imagery, and the
cloud pattern features an area of cold cloud tops wrapping around
the northern and western portions of the circulation as some dry air
works its way into the southern semicircle. Before the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters left Arthur, they measured flight-level winds of
91 kt and SFMR winds of 82 kt, which support maintaining the initial
intensity at 85 kt. The central pressure is set to 973 mb based on
a measurement of 975.5 mb at an NOAA National Ocean Service station
at Oregon Inlet with a wind of 35 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be sampling Arthur later this morning. Gradual
weakening is expected today and tonight, and Arthur will complete
extratropical transition by 36 hours. After passing Nova
Scotia, post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the North
Atlantic.
Arthur is accelerating northeastward, with an initial motion
estimate of 040/20, and a northeastward motion is expected to
continue for the next 48 hours as Arthur recurves ahead of an
advancing mid-latitude trough. The track model guidance is in good
agreement in taking the center of Arthur well offshore of the U.S.
mid-Atlantic coast today and southeast of New England tonight before
moving over Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. After that time, Arthur
is expected to continue across Newfoundland and into the North
Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance
envelope through 72 hours and is close to the GEFS ensemble
mean at days 4 and 5.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 36.0N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 38.4N 72.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 42.2N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0600Z 53.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0600Z 59.0N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 63.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...6 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF ARTHUR MOVING AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...
A WEATHERFLOW STATION AT OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...99 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
80 MPH...129 KM/H. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87
KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H.
SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 75.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF KITTY HAWK NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...6 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF ARTHUR MOVING AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...
A WEATHERFLOW STATION AT OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...99 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
80 MPH...129 KM/H. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87
KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H.
SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 75.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF KITTY HAWK NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
700 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ENE OF KITTY HAWK NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
74.7 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW
ENGLAND BY TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET RECENTLY
INDICATED OVER 3 FEET OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION IN THE AREA.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND
ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL MAINE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
700 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ENE OF KITTY HAWK NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
74.7 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW
ENGLAND BY TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET RECENTLY
INDICATED OVER 3 FEET OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION IN THE AREA.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND
ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL MAINE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...8 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...ARTHUR CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 74.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...8 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...ARTHUR CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 74.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139228
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
900 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...ARTHUR BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 74.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO PORTERS LAKE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* DIGBY TO PORTERS LAKE NOVA SCOTIA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* NOVA SCOTIA NORTH OF DIGBY...NORTH OF PORTERS LAKE...AND INCLUDING
CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE
74.0 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW
ENGLAND BY TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND
ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL MAINE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
900 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...ARTHUR BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 74.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO PORTERS LAKE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* DIGBY TO PORTERS LAKE NOVA SCOTIA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* NOVA SCOTIA NORTH OF DIGBY...NORTH OF PORTERS LAKE...AND INCLUDING
CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE
74.0 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW
ENGLAND BY TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND
ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL MAINE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...CENTER OF ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD EARLY
TONIGHT...
...ALL WARNINGS IN NORTH CAROLINA DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 73.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS REPLACED ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND
NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THIS AFTERNOON...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND
BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82
INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM
EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND INTO
COASTAL MAINE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST COASTS
OF THE UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THESE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
The eye of Arthur remains evident in geostationary satellite imagery
although the cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed this
morning. The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
measured 94-kt 700 mb flight-level winds in the southeastern
quadrant, but it appears that these winds are not effectively mixing
down to the surface, as peak SFMR surface winds have been 68 kt.
Using a blend of the these data, the initial intensity has been
reduced to 80 kt. Arthur will be moving over cooler water and the
shear will be significantly increasing through tonight, which should
cause gradual weakening. The hurricane will also interact with a
deep-layer trough and associated cold front that will be moving off
the United States east coast later today. This should cause the
hurricane to complete transition into an extratropical cyclone in
about 24 hours. After that time, continued weakening is expected
while the post-tropical cyclone moves over the North Atlantic.
Arthur is moving northeastward with an initial motion of 040/21 kt.
The hurricane should continue moving northeastward during the next
24 to 36 hours ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough. The
center of the cyclone is forecast to move over Nova Scotia on
Saturday and track models are in good agreement on this portion of
the forecast. The track guidance become very divergent after 48
hours, with the ECMWF taking the cyclone northward and northwestward
while the GFS shows an east-northeastward motion near Newfoundland.
Out of continuity for the previous forecasts, the NHC track
continues to follow the eastward scenario shown by the GFS and GFS
ensemble mean, but it now shows a somewhat slower motion by day 5.
It is possible that this portion of the track will need to be
adjusted in future forecasts.
Hourly position updates and two-hourly intermediate advisories have
been discontinued. Three-hourly intermediate advisories will
continue as long as coastal warnings remain in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 37.7N 73.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 40.2N 70.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 44.0N 66.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/0000Z 46.1N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/1200Z 48.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/1200Z 55.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1200Z 59.0N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 62.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...CENTER OF ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD EARLY
TONIGHT...
...ALL WARNINGS IN NORTH CAROLINA DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 73.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS REPLACED ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND
NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THIS AFTERNOON...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND
BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82
INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM
EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND INTO
COASTAL MAINE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST COASTS
OF THE UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THESE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
The eye of Arthur remains evident in geostationary satellite imagery
although the cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed this
morning. The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
measured 94-kt 700 mb flight-level winds in the southeastern
quadrant, but it appears that these winds are not effectively mixing
down to the surface, as peak SFMR surface winds have been 68 kt.
Using a blend of the these data, the initial intensity has been
reduced to 80 kt. Arthur will be moving over cooler water and the
shear will be significantly increasing through tonight, which should
cause gradual weakening. The hurricane will also interact with a
deep-layer trough and associated cold front that will be moving off
the United States east coast later today. This should cause the
hurricane to complete transition into an extratropical cyclone in
about 24 hours. After that time, continued weakening is expected
while the post-tropical cyclone moves over the North Atlantic.
Arthur is moving northeastward with an initial motion of 040/21 kt.
The hurricane should continue moving northeastward during the next
24 to 36 hours ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough. The
center of the cyclone is forecast to move over Nova Scotia on
Saturday and track models are in good agreement on this portion of
the forecast. The track guidance become very divergent after 48
hours, with the ECMWF taking the cyclone northward and northwestward
while the GFS shows an east-northeastward motion near Newfoundland.
Out of continuity for the previous forecasts, the NHC track
continues to follow the eastward scenario shown by the GFS and GFS
ensemble mean, but it now shows a somewhat slower motion by day 5.
It is possible that this portion of the track will need to be
adjusted in future forecasts.
Hourly position updates and two-hourly intermediate advisories have
been discontinued. Three-hourly intermediate advisories will
continue as long as coastal warnings remain in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 37.7N 73.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 40.2N 70.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 44.0N 66.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/0000Z 46.1N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/1200Z 48.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/1200Z 55.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1200Z 59.0N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 62.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
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- Admin
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...ARTHUR PASSING WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 72.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND THE
MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEWFOUNDLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THIS AFTERNOON...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND
BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM
EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND INTO
COASTAL MAINE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST COASTS
OF THE UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THESE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...ARTHUR PASSING WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 72.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND THE
MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEWFOUNDLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THIS AFTERNOON...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND
BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM
EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND INTO
COASTAL MAINE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST COASTS
OF THE UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THESE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139228
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 71.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NON-TROPICAL HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
...HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. FOR DETAILS
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...COASTAL
MAINE...NOVA SCOTIA...NEWFOUNDLAND...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
AND CANADA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
The cloud pattern of Arthur remains very symmetric with a hint of an
eye remaining in visibile and infrared satellite imagery, although
the cloud tops have continued to gradually warm during the day.
Recent reconnaissance data show that the radius of maximum winds has
increased, which is likely the first sign that the hurricane is
beginning the transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The aircraft
data also indicate that the winds aloft are not mixing down as
efficiently as they were overnight and this morning. In fact, during
the latest pass through the southeastern quadrant the aircraft
measured a peak 700-mb flight level wind of 103 kt, but the surface
winds underneath were only 63 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is lowered to 70 kt. Arthur is now located over sea
surface temperatures of around 24C. The hurricane will be moving
over progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing
southwesterly shear, which should result in continued weakening.
Global model guidance indicates that Arthur should become
post-tropical tomorrow morning. After the extratropical transition,
the cyclone is forecast to continue weakening as it moves over the
North Atlantic.
The initial motion estimate is 040/23 kt. The hurricane should
continue to move northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours in
deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer
trough. After that time, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to
slow down and eventually turn east-northeastward. There is still
a large amount of spread in the track guidance after 48 hours. The
updated NHC forecast is between the ECWMF and GFS models, and leans
toward guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
Winds in excess of gale/tropical storm force are expected
over portions of eastern Maine on Saturday. Because Arthur is
expected to be extratropical by Saturday morning, and because the
strong winds in Maine will be post-frontal, this threat is being
handled by high wind warnings issued by local NWS offices.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 39.4N 71.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 42.2N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 45.3N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/1800Z 49.4N 57.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/1800Z 56.0N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1800Z 60.0N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z 61.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 71.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NON-TROPICAL HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
...HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. FOR DETAILS
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...COASTAL
MAINE...NOVA SCOTIA...NEWFOUNDLAND...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
AND CANADA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
The cloud pattern of Arthur remains very symmetric with a hint of an
eye remaining in visibile and infrared satellite imagery, although
the cloud tops have continued to gradually warm during the day.
Recent reconnaissance data show that the radius of maximum winds has
increased, which is likely the first sign that the hurricane is
beginning the transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The aircraft
data also indicate that the winds aloft are not mixing down as
efficiently as they were overnight and this morning. In fact, during
the latest pass through the southeastern quadrant the aircraft
measured a peak 700-mb flight level wind of 103 kt, but the surface
winds underneath were only 63 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is lowered to 70 kt. Arthur is now located over sea
surface temperatures of around 24C. The hurricane will be moving
over progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing
southwesterly shear, which should result in continued weakening.
Global model guidance indicates that Arthur should become
post-tropical tomorrow morning. After the extratropical transition,
the cyclone is forecast to continue weakening as it moves over the
North Atlantic.
The initial motion estimate is 040/23 kt. The hurricane should
continue to move northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours in
deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer
trough. After that time, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to
slow down and eventually turn east-northeastward. There is still
a large amount of spread in the track guidance after 48 hours. The
updated NHC forecast is between the ECWMF and GFS models, and leans
toward guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
Winds in excess of gale/tropical storm force are expected
over portions of eastern Maine on Saturday. Because Arthur is
expected to be extratropical by Saturday morning, and because the
strong winds in Maine will be post-frontal, this threat is being
handled by high wind warnings issued by local NWS offices.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 39.4N 71.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 42.2N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 45.3N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/1800Z 49.4N 57.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/1800Z 56.0N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1800Z 60.0N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z 61.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...ARTHUR MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...45 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...45 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...COASTAL
MAINE...NOVA SCOTIA...NEWFOUNDLAND...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
AND CANADA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...ARTHUR MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...45 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...45 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON
SATURDAY...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...COASTAL
MAINE...NOVA SCOTIA...NEWFOUNDLAND...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
AND CANADA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139228
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...ARTHUR CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER NANTUCKET...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.2N 68.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ARTHUR WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...BE NEAR OR OVER
WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON SATURDAY...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SATURDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
160 MILES...260 KM. NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH...
100 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA IN NEW ENGLAND. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...COASTAL MAINE...NOVA SCOTIA...
NEWFOUNDLAND...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AND INTO NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
Satellite and radar data indicates that Arthur has begun
extratropical transition. The eye feature seen previously has
dissipated, and the remaining convection is now displaced somewhat
to the northeast of the low-level center. In addition, microwave
total precipitable water data from a recent SSM/IS overpass shows
very dry air entraining into the west and south sides of the
cyclone. SFMR data from the previous Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter flight showed maximum winds of 60-65 kt, and based on this
the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 65 kt.
The initial motion is now 045/27 kt. Arthur should continue to move
northeastward during the next 24-36 hours in deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough over the
northeastern United States. After that time, the post-tropical
cyclone is forecast to slow down and eventually turn
east-northeastward. Based on the current motion and model trends,
this part of the forecast has been nudged a little to the east of
the previous track. There remains a large amount of spread in the
track guidance after 48 hours on whether the former Arthur will turn
more northward or turn east-northeastward out into the Atlantic. The
new official forecast during that period has been revised based on
a blend of input from the Ocean Prediction Center along with the
GFS and ECMWF models.
Arthur is expected to complete extratropical transition in about 12
hours. After transition, the former tropical cyclone should
steadily weaken, with winds dropping below gale force by 96 hours.
The intensity forecast has been revised downward based on input from
the OPC, as well as from the GFS and ECMWF models.
Winds in excess of gale/tropical storm force are expected over
portions of eastern Maine on Saturday. Because Arthur is expected
to be extratropical by Saturday morning, and because the strong
winds in Maine will be post-frontal, this threat is being handled by
high wind warnings issued by local NWS offices.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 41.2N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 44.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/0000Z 46.5N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/1200Z 48.5N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0000Z 51.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0000Z 58.0N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 60.0N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 61.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
...ARTHUR CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER NANTUCKET...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.2N 68.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ARTHUR WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...BE NEAR OR OVER
WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON SATURDAY...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SATURDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
160 MILES...260 KM. NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH...
100 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA IN NEW ENGLAND. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...COASTAL MAINE...NOVA SCOTIA...
NEWFOUNDLAND...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AND INTO NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014
Satellite and radar data indicates that Arthur has begun
extratropical transition. The eye feature seen previously has
dissipated, and the remaining convection is now displaced somewhat
to the northeast of the low-level center. In addition, microwave
total precipitable water data from a recent SSM/IS overpass shows
very dry air entraining into the west and south sides of the
cyclone. SFMR data from the previous Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter flight showed maximum winds of 60-65 kt, and based on this
the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 65 kt.
The initial motion is now 045/27 kt. Arthur should continue to move
northeastward during the next 24-36 hours in deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough over the
northeastern United States. After that time, the post-tropical
cyclone is forecast to slow down and eventually turn
east-northeastward. Based on the current motion and model trends,
this part of the forecast has been nudged a little to the east of
the previous track. There remains a large amount of spread in the
track guidance after 48 hours on whether the former Arthur will turn
more northward or turn east-northeastward out into the Atlantic. The
new official forecast during that period has been revised based on
a blend of input from the Ocean Prediction Center along with the
GFS and ECMWF models.
Arthur is expected to complete extratropical transition in about 12
hours. After transition, the former tropical cyclone should
steadily weaken, with winds dropping below gale force by 96 hours.
The intensity forecast has been revised downward based on input from
the OPC, as well as from the GFS and ECMWF models.
Winds in excess of gale/tropical storm force are expected over
portions of eastern Maine on Saturday. Because Arthur is expected
to be extratropical by Saturday morning, and because the strong
winds in Maine will be post-frontal, this threat is being handled by
high wind warnings issued by local NWS offices.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 41.2N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 44.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/0000Z 46.5N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/1200Z 48.5N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0000Z 51.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0000Z 58.0N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 60.0N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 61.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Chris_in_Tampa
- Category 5
- Posts: 4963
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
- Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
- Contact:
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014
...ARTHUR RACING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 67.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 42.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS
MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
160 MILES...260 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS THE
WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE
TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD
TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...COASTAL MAINE...NOVA SCOTIA...
NEWFOUNDLAND...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AND INTO NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA SOON. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014
...ARTHUR RACING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 67.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 42.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS
MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
160 MILES...260 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS THE
WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE
TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD
TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...COASTAL MAINE...NOVA SCOTIA...
NEWFOUNDLAND...AND NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AND INTO NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA SOON. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139228
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014
Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane
indicate that Arthur is rapidly losing tropical characteristics. The
low-level center is now displaced from the convection, and the rain
shield has expanded significantly toward the northwest. However,the
circulation is still vigorous given that there was a peak wind of
83 knots at 850 mb reported by the Air Force plane. These strong
winds are not reaching the surface, and the initial intensity is set
at 60 knots based on SFMR reports. Arthur should complete
extratropical transition later today and should weaken.
Arthur has slowed down as anticipated and is moving toward the
northeast at 19 knots. The cyclone should continue on this
general track steered by the southwesterly flow ahead of a
mid-latitude trough. In fact, most of the global models show Arthur
becoming associated with this trough in about 12 to 24 hours.
Both intensity and track forecasts during the post-tropical
stage have been adjusted based on input from the OPC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 43.1N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/1800Z 49.5N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0600Z 52.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 60.0N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 58.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z 62.1N 43.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014
Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane
indicate that Arthur is rapidly losing tropical characteristics. The
low-level center is now displaced from the convection, and the rain
shield has expanded significantly toward the northwest. However,the
circulation is still vigorous given that there was a peak wind of
83 knots at 850 mb reported by the Air Force plane. These strong
winds are not reaching the surface, and the initial intensity is set
at 60 knots based on SFMR reports. Arthur should complete
extratropical transition later today and should weaken.
Arthur has slowed down as anticipated and is moving toward the
northeast at 19 knots. The cyclone should continue on this
general track steered by the southwesterly flow ahead of a
mid-latitude trough. In fact, most of the global models show Arthur
becoming associated with this trough in about 12 to 24 hours.
Both intensity and track forecasts during the post-tropical
stage have been adjusted based on input from the OPC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 43.1N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/1800Z 49.5N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0600Z 52.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 60.0N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 58.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z 62.1N 43.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139228
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Advisories
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014
...ARTHUR BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND DOWN EAST MAINE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 66.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ARTHUR WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT
LUNENBURG NOVA SCOTIA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM SURFACE DATA AND NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
WARNING AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE TODAY...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT HAS OVERTAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE...WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...AND NEW
BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SWELLS ARE ALSO
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014
...ARTHUR BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND DOWN EAST MAINE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 66.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ARTHUR WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT
LUNENBURG NOVA SCOTIA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM SURFACE DATA AND NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
WARNING AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE TODAY...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT HAS OVERTAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.
STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE...WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...AND NEW
BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SWELLS ARE ALSO
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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