EPAC: INVEST 98E

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2014070600, , BEST, 0, 80N, 990W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2014070606, , BEST, 0, 82N, 997W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2014070612, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1005W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2014070618, , BEST, 0, 87N, 1012W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2014070700, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1020W, 25, 1009, LO,

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 070022
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0022 UTC MON JUL 7 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982014) 20140707 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140707 0000 140707 1200 140708 0000 140708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.0N 102.0W 9.9N 104.2W 10.9N 106.6W 12.2N 109.0W
BAMD 9.0N 102.0W 9.7N 104.1W 10.6N 106.0W 11.6N 108.0W
BAMM 9.0N 102.0W 9.9N 104.1W 11.1N 106.4W 12.5N 108.7W
LBAR 9.0N 102.0W 9.7N 104.0W 11.0N 106.5W 12.7N 108.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140709 0000 140710 0000 140711 0000 140712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 111.4W 15.2N 115.7W 16.6N 119.9W 17.7N 124.2W
BAMD 12.7N 109.9W 14.4N 113.4W 15.7N 116.5W 16.9N 119.4W
BAMM 13.9N 111.0W 16.1N 115.0W 17.8N 118.7W 19.2N 122.2W
LBAR 14.5N 111.2W 18.0N 115.2W 21.0N 118.2W 24.4N 119.7W
SHIP 49KTS 52KTS 44KTS 37KTS
DSHP 49KTS 52KTS 44KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.0N LONCUR = 102.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 8.4N LONM12 = 100.5W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 99.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

This is the 20/20 system, correct?

[cycloneye]

This is the 20/20 system, correct?

That is correct.

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 34 37 44 49 52 52 48 44 40 37
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 34 37 44 49 52 52 48 44 40 37
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 40 43 44 43 41 37 32
SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 13 14 11 10 10 12 14 15 17 16
SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.6 27.9 27.1 25.8 25.0 24.6

Has now through Wednesday to develop based on this

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think this will develop stronger than currently expected by the SHIPS? It has a lot of relatively warm ocean to play with.

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone think this will develop stronger than currently expected by the SHIPS? It has a lot of relatively warm ocean to play with.

No, the SHIPS is very bullish on its first run. Next run, it will lower a bit.

The problem is the proximity to the ITCZ mainly. As well as unfavorable JMO.

[hurricanes1234]

Relatively strong winds for an invest which just got recognised.

98E INVEST 140707 0000 9.0N 102.0W EPAC 25 1009

[Yellow Evan]

Relatively strong winds for an invest which just got recognised.

98E INVEST 140707 0000 9.0N 102.0W EPAC 25 1009

18z GFS shows something decent

[Kingarabian]

Keep the EPac train going!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As of now, conditions are not so favorable. Despite the warm waters over the basin and the area of formation, Vertical Wind Shear over the area is well above normal and could hinder development. If Invest 98E develops, it would just remain TS status at its peak.

[Yellow Evan]

As of now, conditions are not so favorable. Despite the warm waters over the basin and the area of formation, Vertical Wind Shear over the area is well above normal and could hinder development. If Invest 98E develops, it would just remain TS status at its peak.

Meh, shear is decently low overall and there is some model support. I think this can be a boring little Narda 13-like system.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Not looking good.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 32 34 32 29 24 19 17 DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 32 34 32 29 24 19 17 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 19 17
SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 15 17 12 11 14 19 18 19 16 17
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.7 25.8 25.2 24.7 24.5

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Steve820]

I guess it probably won't develop. I'm focusing more on Invest 99E which has been upgraded to a 60% chance of development recently, and that could be our Fausto storm.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072343
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Storm Fausto, located more than a thousand miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico

A broad low pressure system, located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur as it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fausto are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fausto are issued under WMO
header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080523
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fausto, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, Mexico

A broad low pressure system, located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system
should be slow to occur as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fausto are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fausto are issued under WMO
header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Kingarabian]

Wait what? How'd we get Fausto?