EPAC: FAUSTO - Remnants

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Yellow Evan
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#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:04 pm

EP, 06, 2014070800, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1202W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FAUSTO, M,
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#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:38 pm

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 080233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
800 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014

...FAUSTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 120.7W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST. FAUSTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#23 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:45 pm

Lovely detailed discussion from Mr. Stewart.

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 080237
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
800 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014

The convective cloud pattern associated with Tropical Storm Fausto
has continued to improve with numerous small curved bands having
developed in the northern semicircle, while a large curved band has
persisted in the southern semicircle. The upper-level outflow is
good to excellent, and it has continued to expand and become more
symmetrical. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt
based on the improved cloud pattern, a 1757 UTC ASCAT-B overpass
that showed a peak surface wind of 38 kt in the southeastern
quadrant, and also the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT satellite intensity
estimates of T2.8/41 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 275/10 kt. The forecast track was
shifted to the right of the previous advisory track, but the
forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Fausto should move westward to
west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so as the cyclone skirts
the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north
along 24N-25N latitude. By Days 4 and 5, a mid-tropospheric trough
is forecast to dig southward from the north-central Pacific and
weaken the ridge between 140W-150W longitude, causing Fausto to turn
more northwestward toward the weakness or break in the ridge. As the
cyclone gains latitude, it is expected to encounter increasing
westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler waters by
Days 4 and 5, which should weaken the system and cause it to become
more shallow and be steered more westward by the strong low-level
easterly trade wind flow. The official forecast track is south of
the consensus model TCVE due to expected weak northwesterly
mid-level wind shear impinging on the vortex column and keeping it
farther south closer to the deep convection. This complex steering
pattern is depicted well by the HWRF model, which initialized Fausto
much better than the other models, and shows a deeper vortex
throughout the forecast period.

Fausto is expected to remain in a favorable environment of wind
shear less than 10 kt, mid-level moisture greater than 70 percent,
and sea-surface temperatures in excess of 28C for the next 48 hours
or so, which should result in at least gradual strengthening. The
HWRF model makes Fausto a hurricane in about 48 hours, which isn't
entirely out of the question if convection can wrap around the north
side of the low-level center, resulting in a stronger and better
developed vortex column. For now, however, the official intensity
forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and closely
follows the intensity consensus model IVCN due to modest mid-level
shear undercutting the favorable upper-level outflow pattern, which
is expected to inhibit development somewhat.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 9.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 9.9N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 10.5N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 11.2N 127.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 12.1N 129.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 13.8N 135.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 15.5N 139.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 16.8N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby hawaiigirl » Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:20 pm

OoooOo is this coming for me?
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:37 pm

hawaiigirl wrote:OoooOo is this coming for me?


Not likely within the short-term.
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#26 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 08, 2014 12:53 am

I think this is..... the CPAC thingy that becomes Matmo as it dissipates over the CPAC in the previous GFS runs well not anymore. Or, this may just have to stay in the EPAC at all, and that is what the latest GFS run is showing.
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:06 am

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's cloud pattern
appears well organized, with plenty of cold-topped convection and a
long band wrapping around the western and southern side of the
circulation. However, a couple of ASCAT passes suggest that the
cyclone's satellite presentation is misleading, as the low-level
center is located near or outside of the northwestern edge of the
main convective mass. This structure makes sense with UW-CIMSS shear
analyses that show 10 to 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear
affecting the cyclone. One of the ASCAT passes showed believable
37-knot winds about 60 n mi southeast of the center, so the initial
intensity is maintained at 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/12. Although Fausto has not
gained much latitude yet, the track guidance shows the cyclone
moving west-northwestward while it approaches the western periphery
of a subtropical ridge and nears a weakness along 130w longitude.
The latter feature is forecast to lift northward while retrograding,
which should allow for enough ridging to keep Fausto on a west-
northwestward heading until day 4 or 5. By that time, the cyclone
is expected to weaken considerably and become shallower, which
should result in a more westerly motion. The NHC track forecast
is only slighty to the left of the previous one and a bit faster.
The NHC track forecast continues to favor the left side of the
guidance envelope and is closest to the HWRF, which had a better
initialization of the cyclone.

Except for some modest northwesterly or north-northwesterly shear,
the large-scale environment is generally expected to be suitable for
intensification over the short term. Beyond two days, thermodynamic
conditions are forecast to gradually become less favorable and
the shear is likely to increase considerably after 72 hours. These
negative factors should result in weakening after a couple of days.
The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged relative to the previous
forecast and is near the mult-model consensus. It should be noted
that the global models continue to depict Fausto as a weak feature
that does not intensify further during the forecast period. Thus a
plausible alternate scenario is for Fausto to degenerate into an
open trough within a few days for reasons unknown.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 9.5N 122.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 9.9N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 10.6N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 11.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 12.3N 131.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 14.3N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 141.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 17.0N 145.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:31 am

Nice bandings...

What are the latest ocean temperatures?
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#29 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:36 am

Where the hell was I.

Time to catch up. Surprise they have it as a decent tropical storm well into the CPHC AOR.
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#30 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:41 am

Can't wait to see how it evolves tomorrow.
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#31 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 6:53 am

Is this one of the most southerly forming tropical cyclones in this basin?
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#32 Postby stormcruisin » Tue Jul 08, 2014 8:17 am

Image
MJO lingering about.
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Re:

#33 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:41 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is this one of the most southerly forming tropical cyclones in this basin?

Looks like it's still influenced by the ICTZ.
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Re:

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:42 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is this one of the most southerly forming tropical cyclones in this basin?


No, it's not that rare. Happens once every few years.
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:50 am

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014

Fausto's cloud pattern has not become better organized over the
past few hours, with little evidence of banding features. The
center is not easy to locate, even on first-light visible images,
but microwave imagery suggest that it is near the northern edge of
the main area of deep convection. The current intensity is held at
40 kt, but this may be generous in light of the latest subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates. The upper-level outflow is
well-defined except over the northwest quadrant of the storm. The
tropical cyclone should be moving through a light vertical shear and
warm ocean environment for the next couple of days, which would
favor intensification. However, the air mass ahead of Fausto appears
to be drier and more stable, and this would hinder strengthening.
Global models such as the GFS and ECMWF continue to show the system
weakening over the next several days, and this is likely due to the
unfavorable thermodynamic factors. The official intensity forecast
is a little more conservative than the previous ones, and close to
the model consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be slightly north of west, or
280/12. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning. A
low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Fausto should result in a
generally west-northwestward track for the next several days. By
days 3-5, a weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees
west longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to
the right. At the end of the forecast period, it is expected
that Fausto will be weakening and turning more westward in the
lower-tropospheric steering flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 9.7N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 10.3N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 11.0N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 11.9N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 12.9N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 14.8N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 17.5N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:24 pm

EP, 06, 2014070818, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1239W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 70, 20, 20, 1010, 140, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FAUSTO, M,
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:29 pm

I have a feeling it will be a very long time before we see a decent storm in this basin again. Maybe the models predicting weakening might not be that far fetched in my opinion.
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:57 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I have a feeling it will be a very long time before we see a decent storm in this basin again. Maybe the models predicting weakening might not be that far fetched in my opinion.


This will likely fizzle out since it's within the deep tropics.

Why do you think it will be very long time before we see a decent storm though?
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#39 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:40 pm

How's the instability in its area?
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:46 pm

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014

The cloud pattern of Fausto has changed little during the past
several hours, with the low-level center located near the northern
edge of the main convective mass. A recent ASCAT overpass shows
that the circulation is poorly defined on the western side, and
there are no tropical-storm-force winds except in the southeastern
quadrant. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt
since the ASCAT did not fully sample the southeastern quadrant.

The initial motion is now 280/13. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of Fausto should continue to result in a generally
west-northwestward track for the next day or two. By days 2-4, a
weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees west
longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to the
right. By the end of the forecast period, it is expected that a
weakening Fausto will be turning more westward in the lower-level
trade wind flow. The new track forecast is just a little to the
left of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, and it lies
in the middle of the track guidance envelope.

Fausto should be over warm sea surface temperatures and in an area
of light vertical wind shear for about 48 hours. While these
conditions are favorable, microwave satellite data and water vapor
imagery show significant dry air near the cyclone. This, combined
with the current structure, suggests that strengthening should be
slow at best. After 48 hours, increasing northwesterly shear and
decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should
cause Fausto to weaken. The new intensity forecast calls for a
slower strengthening and a quicker weakening than the previous
forecast, which is in best agreement with the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 10.0N 124.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 10.5N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 11.4N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 12.2N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 13.3N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 15.0N 140.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 16.5N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 17.0N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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