EPAC: FAUSTO - Remnants

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#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:How's the instability in its area?


Okay, but it's getting absorbed to the ITCZ. Alvin 13 all over again.
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#42 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:13 pm

Structure is getting better. Small storm?

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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:15 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I have a feeling it will be a very long time before we see a decent storm in this basin again. Maybe the models predicting weakening might not be that far fetched in my opinion.


This will likely fizzle out since it's within the deep tropics.

Why do you think it will be very long time before we see a decent storm though?


I don't think there will be a decent storm at least in the next couple of weeks primarily because of conditions which are not that good. They are okay but there's dry air, shear, etc. here and there. That same dry air prevented Douglas from intensifying beyond 45 mph, and shear prevented Elida from strengthening at all after being classified.

As for Fausto, due to the above, I expect a similar setup. I wouldn't be surprised if it strengthens to 60 mph, but there is dry air near it, it is very close to the ITCZ, and there haven't really been any structural improvements today. For these reasons I choose to stick with the GFS solution of further weakening but that is just my opinion.

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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 08, 2014 6:47 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I have a feeling it will be a very long time before we see a decent storm in this basin again. Maybe the models predicting weakening might not be that far fetched in my opinion.


This will likely fizzle out since it's within the deep tropics.

Why do you think it will be very long time before we see a decent storm though?


I don't think there will be a decent storm at least in the next couple of weeks primarily because of conditions which are not that good. They are okay but there's dry air, shear, etc. here and there. That same dry air prevented Douglas from intensifying beyond 45 mph, and shear prevented Elida from strengthening at all after being classified.

As for Fausto, due to the above, I expect a similar setup. I wouldn't be surprised if it strengthens to 60 mph, but there is dry air near it, it is very close to the ITCZ, and there haven't really been any structural improvements today. For these reasons I choose to stick with the GFS solution of further weakening but that is just my opinion.

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You don't have to the post the disclaimer when you have it in your sig :P

I think you over analyze dry air. Douglas cleared some of that up and all the stable air lies to the NE. It'll help kill it in a few days but right now the proximity to the ITCZ is hindering it. Just because conditions are unfavorable for one storm, doesn't mean they aren't for the next storm. If we get the right setup, we could have a major. We haven't the past few storms.

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#45 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:22 pm

Looks a little better, but not great.
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#46 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:30 pm

Zzz...what happened to the Amanda's and Cristina's?

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#47 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:56 pm

EP, 06, 2014070900, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1257W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 70, 0, 0, 1010, 140, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FAUSTO, M,
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#48 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:26 pm

Actually weakened. :roll:

Now I'm leaning strongly towards only weakening from here. Structure doesn't look good and this is too embedded in the ITCZ.

As someone said, where are the Amandas and Cristinas?
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#49 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:41 pm

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 090239
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014

...FAUSTO WEAKENS AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 126.5W
ABOUT 1370 MI...2200 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST. FAUSTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:51 pm

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014

Visible satellite imagery indicates that the center of Fausto has
pulled northwestward away from the main convective cloud mass and
is now fully exposed in the middle of the larger scale cyclonic
gyre. The initial intensity has been decreased to 35 kt based on
satellite current intensity estimates of 35 kt and 39 kt from TAFB
and UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively.

The initial motion is 290/16 kt, which is a 12-hour average motion.
A recent northwestward jog in the track is believed to be a
temporary motion, and Fausto is expected to turn back toward the
west-northwest fairly soon. A strong ridge to the north of the
cyclone is expected to keep Fausto moving west-northwestward for the
for the next 72 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected to
weaken and become vertically shallow, being steered more westward
by the brisk low-level trade wind flow. The official forecast track
is a little to the right of and faster than the previous advisory,
mainly due to the more northward initial position, and is similar
to the consensus model TCVE.

Fausto is experiencing light deep-layer vertical wind shear of less
than 5 kt and the mid-level shear is only around 5 kt, so the sudden
development of an exposed low-level circulation is perplexing.
However, various water vapor products and microwave satellite
imagery suggest that dry mid-level air has intruded into the inner
core, disrupting the deep convection and allowing the low-level
vortex to briefly decouple from the mid- and upper-level
circulations. Further exacerbating these unfavorable conditions is
a large disturbance located about 800 nmi to the northeast of the
cyclone, which has been deflecting some of the southerly low-level
inflow away from Fausto and into that system. The global models
indicate that the shear will remain light for another 24 hours or
so, and that Fausto and the aforementioned disturbance will begin to
separate from each other in about 12 hours or so, which could allow
for some slight re-strengthening. By 72 hours and beyond, however,
northwesterly wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt,
inducing significant weakening while the cyclone also moves over
cooler water. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous
advisory forecast, and closely follows the intensity consensus
models IVCN and ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 11.0N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 11.7N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 12.5N 131.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 13.4N 134.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 14.2N 137.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 16.0N 142.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 17.4N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 18.4N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#51 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:04 pm

Reminds me of the inexplicable falling apart of Gil last year when it was in the open waters except this is barely a tropical storm.
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Re:

#52 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:05 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Actually weakened. :roll:

Now I'm leaning strongly towards only weakening from here. Structure doesn't look good and this is too embedded in the ITCZ.

As someone said, where are the Amandas and Cristinas?


It's only July 8. You can't expect every storm to be like Amanda and Cristina.

Granted, I'm a little frustrated as well.
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Re:

#53 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:09 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Reminds me of the inexplicable falling apart of Gil last year when it was in the open waters except this is barely a tropical storm.


Gil wasn't a fail. It's a good example on how crazy these deep tropical storms can be.
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#54 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:31 am

Welp. What a bummer.
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#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:56 am

Fausto looks really bad right now.
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#56 Postby stormcruisin » Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:34 am

The area to the East looks promising for developing another TS.
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Tropical Depression

#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 09, 2014 4:47 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
200 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014

Fausto has continued to lose organization overnight. The deep
convection associated with the tropical cyclone has become
disorganized and appears to be separated from the center that was
tracked in the last few visible satellite images. Recent ASCAT
data suggest that the circulation has become elongated from
northeast to southwest and that it has possibly become an open
trough of low pressure. The highest believable winds from the
ASCAT passes were 25 to 30 kt to the northeast of the alleged
center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to
30 kt.

Despite being located in a low shear environment and over warm
water, Fausto has likely weakened during the past 24 hours due to
the entrainment of dry mid-level air. Although Fausto is forecast
to remain over warm water and in low shear for another 24 hours,
poor thermodynamic factors should prevent restrengthening. After
that time, westerly shear is forecast to increase which should
cause the final demise of Fausto, if it does not occur sooner. One
very possible scenario is for the circulation to dissipate and
become an open trough within the next 24 hours. This solution
is generally favored by the GFS and ECMWF models.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 285 degrees at 16
kt. Fausto should continue moving west-northwestward to westward
during the next several days to the south of a strong low- to
mid-level ridge. The track guidance agrees on this scenario but has
shifted southward this cycle. Since the updated NHC intensity
forecast predicts a weaker and shallower system, it is more likely
that Fausto or its remnants will move more westward. As a result,
the NHC track has been adjusted southward.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 11.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 11.9N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 12.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 13.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 13.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 14.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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#58 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:39 am

Two words for Fausto: massive fail! Don't be surprised to see this labelled 'remnants' by the end of today, if not sooner. In fact, I'm expecting just that by the 8 AM advisory or the 2 PM advisory for the latest.
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#59 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:37 am

EP, 06, 2014070912, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1287W, 25, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FAUSTO, M,
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Re: EPAC: FAUSTO - Remnants

#60 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:47 am

Goodbye.


REMNANTS OF FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
800 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014

Satellite imagery, overnight scatterometer data, and a recent GPM
microwave overpass indicate that Fausto has degenerated to a trough
of low pressure. The remnants of the cyclone are expected to
continue a general west-northwestward motion for the next several
days through an area of increasing vertical wind shear and
mid-level dry air. This combination is likely to prevent
regeneration.

This is the last advisory issued on Fausto by the National Hurricane
Center. For additional information on the remnants, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 11.7N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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