WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneTracker2031]

This looks very strong and will continue to intensify prior to landfall (Possible CAT 5), IMO



Synopsis for Western Pacific and other basins: http://goo.gl/XFW5eu


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[Alyono]

clear secondary eyewall on radar now

This has probably peaked and will not become a super typhoon. However, it also should not have a chance to weaken before landfall

[supercane4867]

03z advisory from CMA has Rammasun become a super typhoon on 2-min wind scale

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 180300 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC
00HR 19.5N 111.9E 920HPA 60M/S
30KTS WINDS 260KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
160KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 20KM/H
P+06HR 20.1N 110.8E 920HPA 60M/S
P+12HR 20.8N 110.0E 935HPA 52M/S
P+18HR 21.5N 109.1E 950HPA 45M/S
P+24HR 22.0N 108.0E 960HPA 40M/S
P+36HR 22.8N 105.9E 985HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 23.5N 102.1E 998HPA 16M/S=
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Stunning eye

[Alyono]

not sure this can avoid at least clipping Hainan Island now

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's comical if not sad that JTWC has this at 125kt, but I suspect they'll up it at the next advisory. The satellite presentation supports at least 135kt, if not 140kt.

Saved loop.

[Alyono]

It's comical if not sad that JTWC has this at 125kt, but I suspect they'll up it at the next advisory. The satellite presentation supports at least 135kt, if not 140kt.

Saved loop.

what is comical is this post I quoted. Lets stop with the overhyping. JT has been overstating the intensity throughout this storm and this has been well documented. Now they have a reasonable estimate

[Typhoon Hunter]

Incredible and quite rare storm for the location.

Guangdong and Hainan are used to typhoons so I have some faith that local authorities will be going all out to evacuate those in harm's way - but this is still going to pack an immense punch despite the strong infrastructure and storm readiness of the area.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's comical if not sad that JTWC has this at 125kt, but I suspect they'll up it at the next advisory. The satellite presentation supports at least 135kt, if not 140kt.

Saved loop.

what is comical is this post I quoted. Lets stop with the overhyping. JT has been guilty of that plenty and this has been well documented. Now they have a reasonable estimate

Assigning a tropical cyclone with a 13-16C clear, symmetrical eye with eyewall convection near/over -80C 125kt is reasonable?

I'd hate to see what's considered a Category 5 in your book, but I digress.

[supercane4867]

When did the JTWC overstated intensity on this storm?

[Alyono]

When did the JTWC overstated intensity on this storm?

In the Philippines. All available surface data indicate it was much weaker than the 110 KT JT assigned the system

[Alyono]

TW Analyst,

Lag time. The surface winds likely simply have not caught up with the sat signature and likely wont have time to do so.

Furthermore, I did a Dvorak estimate and yielded a 6.5. That is the same that SSD yielded. So multiple METEOROLOGISTS have a cat 4. Yet we should take the word of a teenager who calls those comical?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess this may peak later today and has a decent chance of intensifying to a super typhoon. Right now, it looks like 120-135 kts, the eye just needs to organize and warm more. The convection needs to get a bit colder.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive image of Rammasun.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The eye temperature of Rammasun has been above 5C for the past 5 hours all the while cloud tops have been near or below -80C. That's plenty of time for winds to catch up.

As I said in my original post, this could be 135kt just as much as it could be 140kt. We won't know without recon. But 125kt is unreasonable IMO.

But since my age apparently matters, let's take the opinion of a well-known PhD meteorologist -

@RyanMaue: 125-knots is low in my opinion for Typhoon #Rammasun
Based on satellite, it's a 140-knot Super Typhoon. http://t.co/eUKA9ZiEzz

[Alyono]

Maue ALWAYS has high estimates. He goes off of raw Dvorak numbers and the ADT

BTW, I also hold an advanced degree in meteorology

[HurricaneBill]

Ok guys, let's settle down.

[supercane4867]

Surface observations at landfall should reveal the actual intensity of the storm, plenty of stations available there

[wxmann_91]

It's comical if not sad that JTWC has this at 125kt, but I suspect they'll up it at the next advisory. The satellite presentation supports at least 135kt, if not 140kt.

Saved loop.

what is comical is this post I quoted. Lets stop with the overhyping. JT has been overstating the intensity throughout this storm and this has been well documented. Now they have a reasonable estimate

It's not comical... he's not saying that it's 150 kt or 100 kt. We know at this point that it's either a high-end Cat 4 or low-end Cat 5, and it's going to flatten any town the eye touches.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Typhoon Glenda/Rammasun kills 51 in the Philippines

I guess the name Glenda would be retired, as at least PHP 1 billion worth of crops have been damaged by the typhoon, and that amount is what is needed for the name to be retired by the PAGASA.