WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

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xtyphooncyclonex
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#601 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jul 18, 2014 6:08 am

Weather station in Haikou is reporting wind speeds of 126 km/h and gusts of 162 km/h, shown in Weather Underground. THIS is very very dangerous, and much stronger than what Rammasun brought to Metro Manila. :eek:
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#602 Postby weathernerdguy » Fri Jul 18, 2014 6:16 am

Has it made landfall in haikou?
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Re:

#603 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jul 18, 2014 6:19 am

weathernerdguy wrote:Has it made landfall in haikou?

Not directly. But because its eye is large, the eye reached the Northeastern tip of Haikou, and a large part of that city is over the eyewall which may pack category 5 wind gusts.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#604 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jul 18, 2014 6:23 am

http://www.accuweather.com/en/cn/haikou/58633/daily-weather-forecast/58633?day=1
Is this a big glitch, or super typhoon Rammasun was fofecast to directly strike Haikou? THE website shows that 418 km/h gusts were forecast for Haikou.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#605 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:45 am

May god bless Philippines, China, and Vietnam and all other areas affected!
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#606 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jul 18, 2014 8:09 am

JTWC 12Z Best Track has Rammasun weakened to 125 knots, but despite that, Rammasun is still a very strong typhoon.

09W RAMMASUN 140718 1200 20.3N 110.3E WPAC 125 929
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#607 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 8:48 am

Rammasun's well defined eye about to reemerge back over water...
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#608 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 9:21 am

Nice radar loop of Rammasun courtesy of Brian McNoldy at the University of Miami:

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/rammasun14/Rammasun_17-18Jul14_haikou.gif
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#609 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 9:45 am

wxman57 wrote:Nice radar loop of Rammasun courtesy of Brian McNoldy at the University of Miami:

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/rammasun14/Rammasun_17-18Jul14_haikou.gif


Monster...
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#610 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:07 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF
HANOI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BEGUN TO DEVOLVE AND BECOME LESS CLEAR AS THE TYPHOON
TRACKS THROUGH THE HAINAN STRAIT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS LEADING TO AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TY 09W IS
STEADILY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING OVER SOUTH EAST CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
INFLUENCES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT STILL SUPPORTS THE SYSTEM AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN ARE FAVORABLE, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN CHINA, WHICH WILL CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE REGION WITH COMPLETE
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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#611 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:23 am

So frightening to see the eyewall of a Cat 4-5 typhoon hit major metropolitan areas. It would be like a repeat of the 1926 Miami hurricane.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#612 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:27 am

Any news/photos coming out from China?
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Re:

#613 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:33 am

CrazyC83 wrote:So frightening to see the eyewall of a Cat 4-5 typhoon hit major metropolitan areas. It would be like a repeat of the 1926 Miami hurricane.


Except this is 10X more populated where Rammasun hit...Quite astonishing...
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#614 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:23 pm

The lowest recorded pressure on Qizhou Islands is 892.3hPa while still falling after the 917.4hPa observation was taken **Not adjusted to sea level**
Depending on the exact altitude of station which is unkown for now, actual SLP likely ranged between 905hPa to 915hPa

9174 13:00:00
8923 14:16:00
9205 15:01:00
9412 16:01:00
9536 17:01:00
9581 18:01:00
9642 19:01:00

Image
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#615 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:33 pm

That data would clearly support a Cat 5 at landfall. I would guess 145 kt for the landfall intensity based on a 905mb pressure (lower than standard P-W relationship due to the very large size).
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Re: Re:

#616 Postby yulou » Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:35 pm

euro6208 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:So frightening to see the eyewall of a Cat 4-5 typhoon hit major metropolitan areas. It would be like a repeat of the 1926 Miami hurricane.


Except this is 10X more populated where Rammasun hit...Quite astonishing...


The automatic weather station at Yanfeng Town, Haikou City recorded a gust wind of 192 km/h (119 mph) between 1700~1800 BJT.

National Benchmark Station at Haikou recorded 39.5 m/s (88 mph, 2-min avg) and 28.1 m/s (10-min.)

I think Haikou can resist the wind. Waterlogging is rather a more serious problem.
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#617 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:39 pm

That also suggests that there truly was rapid intensification in the South China Sea. The landfall pressure in the Philippines was likely around 955 based on surface data, and it likely was around 970-975 (intensity about 70 kt) when it emerged in the South China Sea.
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#618 Postby yulou » Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:48 pm

Some pics from Hainan on Weibo. Haikou, Wenchang and Xuwen is (or was in the afternoon) in electric blackout. So not many videos uploaded.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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#619 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:05 pm

WHY are so many people outdoors when such an intense typhoon is on them????
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#620 Postby weathernerdguy » Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:12 pm

oh look, a giant wave! Let's Hug A Tree!!!!!
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