WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

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#621 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:13 pm

why do I get the feeling there is going to be high loss of life due to foolish actions?
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#622 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:14 pm

Haikou may have missed the eyewall, but just barely
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#623 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:26 pm

Except perhaps the first pic inside, everyone in those photos deserves a Darwin award.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#624 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:42 pm

The Chinese media and government agencies have really done a horrible job on this one, they failed to advise or evacuate major towns and cities in the landfall region even at the final approach of a super typhoon.
Most people in Haikou were still out to work yesterday
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#625 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:16 pm

supercane4867 wrote:The lowest recorded pressure on Qizhou Islands is 892.3hPa while still falling after the 917.4hPa observation was taken **Not adjusted to sea level**
Depending on the exact altitude of station which is unknown for now, actual SLP likely ranged between 905hPa to 915hPa

9174 13:00:00
8923 14:16:00
9205 15:01:00
9412 16:01:00
9536 17:01:00
9581 18:01:00
9642 19:01:00


Where did you see the 892.3hPa pressure reading? Was it an official observing station? What is the 4-letter ICAO?
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#626 Postby ejeraldmc » Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:52 pm

Electricity is back just now!

Im from Lipa City, Batangas, PH and I think the eyewall passed over here :eek: Wednesday 2:30 am I was already awake because of the strong winds and rain. Every hour winds kept getting stronger. I noticed occasional lightning and heard howling strong gusts of wind. Then it was around 5 am I was looking outside when suddenly air rushed in the room I was in. I was shocked to see our window gone. Wind and rain poured in. The intact windows were shaking. The whole room was shaking!! :double: I went downstairs and helped the others hold the other windows in danger of being blown off or destroyed. Daylight ensues. I saw the awning of our balcony destroyed. After 2 hours, the rain and winds were still strong. I looked outside and saw some of our neighbours' roofs blown away. The city is a mess. After 72 hours, electricity is back, just now! Just wanted to share my experience.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#627 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:The lowest recorded pressure on Qizhou Islands is 892.3hPa while still falling after the 917.4hPa observation was taken **Not adjusted to sea level**
Depending on the exact altitude of station which is unknown for now, actual SLP likely ranged between 905hPa to 915hPa

9174 13:00:00
8923 14:16:00
9205 15:01:00
9412 16:01:00
9536 17:01:00
9581 18:01:00
9642 19:01:00


Where did you see the 892.3hPa pressure reading? Was it an official observing station? What is the 4-letter ICAO?

It is an unregistered automatic station that the data is available only in non-public networks for intergovernmental use. I got these numbers from a pro met in the chinese typhoon forum
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#628 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:03 pm

Bad news coming out from Hainan as severe damage and casualties occurred.

Source
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#629 Postby weathernerdguy » Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:49 pm

About to make landfall
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#630 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 5:13 pm

This may shape up some very bad news for the people in the typhoon's path. Hopefully they're safe.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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#631 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 18, 2014 6:59 pm

eyewall went over Beihai today... likely with broderline cat 3/cat 4 winds

city had 1.5 million

This is basically like a major striking NYC, without the funneling of the tidal surge. However, the Gulf of Tonkin side, including Beihai, may have in fact had a significant tidal surge
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#632 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:56 pm

got a laugh at the JTWC warning

initialized at 100 kt. Issued final warning. They included this gem

"THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION."

Regeneration? The thing is still a typhoon! Plus, it's not coming back over the water
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Typhoon

#633 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:11 pm

^LOL they always have that in their final warning. Even for cyclones transitioning into an ET.. It's like their ending signature or something.
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#634 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:25 pm

who changed the title to post tropical? This is still a TYPHOON
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#635 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:31 pm

Post-tropical?

Image
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#636 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:49 pm

The JTWC always seems to stop advisories as soon as a typhoon makes landfall regardless of its strength. Don't really understand it though, can't they wait for a little bit longer?... :roll:
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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#637 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:22 am

how can the thread title still say post tropical?
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#638 Postby djones65 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:37 am

Alyono, with all due respect even your own admission is that you had been bashing JTWC. However, I have found their forecasts to be Excellent throughout the life cycle of this typhoon. You cried foul when they forecast a typhoon for Philippines and admitted you busted your forecat. After landfall in Luzon you ridiculed JTWC for forecasting a major category 3 for Hainan, China. In fact their forecast was not strong enough. Now you are bashing them for relinquishing advisories on a system inland in south China and no longer a threat to US military or it's dependencies. I just don't understand why you have objected so much to what appears to have been a very fine forecast performance from them. I want to take this time to praise JTWC for their outstanding efforts in accurately forecasting this horrible cyclone!
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#639 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:47 am

djones65 wrote:Alyono, with all due respect even your own admission is that you had been bashing JTWC. However, I have found their forecasts to be Excellent throughout the life cycle of this typhoon. You cried foul when they forecast a typhoon for Philippines and admitted you busted your forecat. After landfall in Luzon you ridiculed JTWC for forecasting a major category 3 for Hainan, China. In fact their forecast was not strong enough. Now you are bashing them for relinquishing advisories on a system inland in south China and no longer a threat to US military or it's dependencies. I just don't understand why you have objected so much to what appears to have been a very fine forecast performance from them. I want to take this time to praise JTWC for their outstanding efforts in accurately forecasting this horrible cyclone!


JT was HORRIBLE. It was not their forecasts that are the major concern, but their analysis. You CANNOT say something is 110 kts and 941mb when the DATA says around 960mb and about 90 kts.

The issue with the SCS was due to them forecasting a cat 3/4 for the wrong reasons. They were bringing the system into the SCS as a 2/3. It was a low end 1

The issue there is INEXPERIENCED forecasters who do 2-3 year tours of duty. One CANNOT be a good TC forecaster unless one not only has the educational background, but one also needs years of experience. If they had the experience, they would understand one CANNOT blindly use Dvorak estimates as JT is known to do.

As for ending advisories... they should end them as this is no interest to them. However, no need to say monitoring for regeneration. It's still a TC
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#640 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:24 am

77 confirmed dead in the Philippines. Hoping that the numbers remain low in China. However, it is a bit worrying that there has not been much news from the landfall zone
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