WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#641 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:57 am

Lol JTWC seems to be everyone's favorite agency.
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Re: Re:

#642 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:07 am

Alyono wrote:
JT was HORRIBLE. It was not their forecasts that are the major concern, but their analysis. You CANNOT say something is 110 kts and 941mb when the DATA says around 960mb and about 90 kts.

The issue with the SCS was due to them forecasting a cat 3/4 for the wrong reasons. They were bringing the system into the SCS as a 2/3. It was a low end 1


I think they did a fantastic job as well. If you go back in this thread, they repeated mentioned in their prognostics that rapid intensification is very likely once in the South China Sea.

You seem agitated at them just because of this. How about when Rammasun was intensifying rapidly and DATA showing 140 knots, 921 mb when it was nearing Hainan and JT was on the Low side? I didn't see you complain at all :lol:
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Re: Re:

#643 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:09 am

euro6208 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
JT was HORRIBLE. It was not their forecasts that are the major concern, but their analysis. You CANNOT say something is 110 kts and 941mb when the DATA says around 960mb and about 90 kts.

The issue with the SCS was due to them forecasting a cat 3/4 for the wrong reasons. They were bringing the system into the SCS as a 2/3. It was a low end 1


I think they did a fantastic job as well. If you go back in this thread, they repeated mentioned in their prognostics that rapid intensification is very likely once in the South China Sea.

You seem agitated at them just because of this. How about when Rammasun was intensifying rapidly and DATA showing 140 knots, 921 mb when it was nearing Hainan and JT was on the Low side? I didn't see you complain at all :lol:



To add to what Euro said. You have made it clear that you do not like the JTWC. That is fine. You could just go and look at the JMA's or another agency's data and forecasts. One things for sure the JMA never look at the JTWCs forecast. I reckon the same goes for all others in the basin.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#644 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:14 am

DATA showing 935-921 mb and winds of 125 to 140 knots when approaching Hainan no complain of underestimate.
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#645 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:28 am

JTWC revised their intensity for the Luzon landfall, now at 115 kts. It was operationally a 110 kts category 3 typhoon. Source: BEST TRACK, WIKIPEDIA
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Re: Re:

#646 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:34 am

Hurricane_Luis wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
To add to what Euro said. You have made it clear that you do not like the JTWC. That is fine. You could just go and look at the JMA's or another agency's data and forecasts. One things for sure the JMA never look at the JTWCs forecast. I reckon the same goes for all others in the basin.


Problem is all agencies either use 10 or 3 min which isn't reliable so JTWC is only one using 1 min.
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Re:

#647 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:51 am

Alyono wrote:eyewall went over Beihai today... likely with broderline cat 3/cat 4 winds

city had 1.5 million

This is basically like a major striking NYC, without the funneling of the tidal surge. However, the Gulf of Tonkin side, including Beihai, may have in fact had a significant tidal surge

Like international outlets giving Hurricane Katrina less than 30 seconds of air time? BTW, that is a hypothetical not what actually occurred in any given place.

Alyono wrote:got a laugh at the JTWC warning

initialized at 100 kt. Issued final warning. They included this gem

"THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION."

Regeneration? The thing is still a typhoon! Plus, it's not coming back over the water

:lol: Reminds me of Environment Canada...if they were taking over for the JTWC.

I didn't hear much on the news about this except it became a "super typhoon" and was heading for China. Appears to be a very large event over there!
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Re: Re:

#648 Postby stormstrike » Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:44 am

euro6208 wrote:
Hurricane_Luis wrote:
Alyono wrote:
To add to what Euro said. You have made it clear that you do not like the JTWC. That is fine. You could just go and look at the JMA's or another agency's data and forecasts. One things for sure the JMA never look at the JTWCs forecast. I reckon the same goes for all others in the basin.





Problem is all agencies either use 10 or 3 min which isn't reliable so JTWC is only one using 1 min.


really? how could you say that? what's your basis on saying that all other methods are not reliable except for what JTWC's using which is the 1-min.?

:double:
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#649 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:48 am

Let's all agree though. JTWC did a great job despite them having no reliable reconnaissance aircrafts since 1987 and at the time were stationed on Guam.
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#650 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:52 am

The problem with JTWC is that it has become too dvorak based over years after recon ended. Why do they so stick to satellite estimate when other datas are clearly available?
I would agree JTWC did not bad on Rammasun but there still many areas for improvement as well
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#651 Postby yulou » Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:56 pm

More pics from Haikou.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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#652 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:59 pm

Is that pic an entire high rise destroyed?
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#653 Postby Dave C » Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:49 pm

It almost appears to be a parking garage, you can see the different levels. It really dug into the street where it hit!
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#654 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:46 pm

Super Typhoon Rammasun batters China, killing 14

This article also has pictures of damage.
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#655 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:06 pm

many of those images do not appear to be from the worst affected areas. The trees have little damage. Looks like they were from the outer fringes
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#656 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:21 am

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#657 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:50 pm

based upon the fact that we have not seen large parts of Haiku destroyed or severely damaged, it is clear that the eyewall missed them

death toll is very low as well for the amount of people this hit as it made landfall. Only 17 or 18 at the moment
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#658 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:11 pm

It should be a wakeup call to get someone - ideally JMA - to fund a return of Recon to the WPAC.
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#659 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:59 pm

NOT AN OFFICIAL ESTIMATE – this is just how I think the Best Track was. All winds are 1-min sustained.

10/0000 9.4N 152.8E 25 kt / 1011 mb Tropical depression
10/0600 9.9N 151.5E 30 kt / 1009 mb
10/1200 10.6N 150.5E 30 kt / 1009 mb
10/1800 11.4N 149.5E 35 kt / 1006 mb Tropical storm

11/0000 11.9N 148.4E 40 kt / 1004 mb
11/0600 12.5N 147.7E 40 kt / 1003 mb
11/1200 13.0N 146.5E 35 kt / 1004 mb
11/1800 13.4N 145.8E 30 kt / 1005 mb Tropical depression
11/2200 13.6N 144.6E 30 kt / 1005 mb Landfall, northern tip of Guam

12/0000 13.7N 144.7E 30 kt / 1006 mb
12/0600 13.7N 143.4E 30 kt / 1006 mb
12/1200 13.6N 141.9E 35 kt / 1005 mb Tropical storm
12/1800 13.6N 140.3E 35 kt / 1005 mb

13/0000 13.6N 138.5E 35 kt / 1005 mb
13/0600 13.6N 136.5E 40 kt / 1003 mb
13/1200 13.5N 134.4E 40 kt / 1002 mb
13/1800 13.4N 132.4E 45 kt / 1001 mb

14/0000 13.2N 130.8E 50 kt / 997 mb
14/0600 13.0N 129.2E 60 kt / 991 mb
14/1200 12.7N 128.1E 65 kt / 989 mb Typhoon
14/1800 12.7N 126.9E 70 kt / 984 mb

15/0000 12.8N 125.6E 80 kt / 975 mb
15/0600 13.0N 124.7E 100 kt / 956 mb
15/0815 13.1N 124.2E 110 kt / 952 mb Landfall, at Prieto Diaz, Sorsogon
15/1000 13.2N 123.8E 105 kt / 954 mb Landfall, at Santo Domingo, Albay
15/1200 13.4N 123.4E 105 kt / 956 mb
15/1530 13.7N 122.5E 95 kt / 962 mb Landfall, near Buenavista, Quezon
15/1800 13.9N 121.9E 90 kt / 967 mb

16/0000 14.3N 120.4E 65 kt / 979 mb
16/0600 15.0N 119.1E 70 kt / 977 mb
16/1200 15.3N 117.6E 70 kt / 976 mb
16/1800 15.8N 116.4E 75 kt / 973 mb

17/0000 16.4N 115.7E 80 kt / 970 mb
17/0600 16.8N 115.0E 85 kt / 966 mb
17/1200 17.5N 114.3E 95 kt / 958 mb
17/1800 18.5N 113.4E 110 kt / 946 mb

18/0000 19.1N 112.3E 125 kt / 931 mb
18/0600 19.9N 111.3E 145 kt / 910 mb Super typhoon
18/0930 20.1N 110.7E 140 kt / 915 mb Landfall, on northeast tip of Hainan
18/1130 20.3N 110.4E 135 kt / 918 mb Landfall, at Niujiao, Guangdong
18/1200 20.3N 110.3E 130 kt / 921 mb
18/1800 21.0N 109.4E 115 kt / 934 mb Typhoon
18/2230 21.6N 108.5E 105 kt / 939 mb Landfall, at Dapingpo, Guangxi

19/0000 21.9N 108.1E 90 kt / 944 mb
19/0600 22.3N 107.0E 65 kt / 963 mb
19/1200 22.6N 105.8E 50 kt / 978 mb Tropical storm
19/1800 22.9N 104.5E 35 kt / 990 mb

20/0000 23.4N 103.6E 30 kt / 996 mb Tropical depression
20/0600 23.9N 103.2E 30 kt / 998 mb
20/1200 Dissipated
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#660 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:31 pm

How in the world do you get 110 kts for the Philippines when surface data only indicates 90 kts AT MOST? 110 kts is basically pulling numbers out of the air, ignoring the actual data and relying upon estimates.

Seriously, some here need to stop thinking Dvorak is everything and need to look at DATA

We never carried this above cat 2 equivalent in our advisories in the Philippines and the observations seem to validate that
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