WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

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#661 Postby djones65 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:29 pm

I sincerely respect your thoughts and opinions Alyono! However, the cyclone has hit less than a week and ALL data has obviously not yet been compiled. We all understand how difficult it is to obtain reliable data when there are questions about quality control of the data received. Yes, I saw the observations of 962 mb you are referring. But how do we know for sure it is accurate nor were there any other observations not yet obtained and or verified. James was at the landfall and stated it was one of the strongest winds he had experienced and he is an "experienced observer." the data has not yet come in. So I personally believe until we can validate the "very few and sparse surface observations" that Dvorak is the BEST estimate at the moment. It is premature in my humble opinion to DEFINITIVELY state Rammasun was not category 3 when it struck southern Luzon! You may end up correct. However I personally believe that we will uncover more evidence as all data is corroborated to support a CAT 3. But it is definitely premature to state it was not when such an impressive satellite signature is obvious and the region of maximum winds may have not been officially measured or observed or received yet. Just my two cents...
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#662 Postby djones65 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:36 pm

Alyono? Do you have any more data than the one observation from Legazpi City? I have not seen data from Sorgason. Do you have more reports? I have seen just one seemingly reliable pressure reding although the lowest pressure appears to have been between observation times. I am just curious. But just one report should not invalidate all other intensity ESTIMATES in my humble opinion
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#663 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:03 am

I've heard a lowest pressure of 959mb. However, the highest gusts I have seen to date from the eyewall was 100 kts. Unconfirmed though

I wonder if instead of translating into a high peak wind, if Rammasun had a more symmetric windfield about the center, similar to when Dolly hit South Texas. It looked as if it was nearly a cat 3 on Dvorak and pressure readings, yet made landfall as a mid grade cat 1. Nearly the entire eyewall had hurricane force winds, however
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#664 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:13 am

It's very sad to see a storm that had a long life forming southeast of Guam, landfall over Guam and eventually making his way to the Philippines as a powerful Cat 3 and Southern China/Vietnam as a Category 4/5. I don't like to see deaths and damage though just talking about how awesome this storm was 8-)
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#665 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:08 am

euro6208 wrote:It's very sad to see a storm that had a long life forming southeast of Guam, landfall over Guam and eventually making his way to the Philippines as a powerful Cat 3 and Southern China/Vietnam as a Category 4/5. I don't like to see deaths and damage though just talking about how awesome this storm was 8-)

And sadder in fact that the JTWC revised their landfall intensity, operationally at 110 knots, now at 115 kts-weak category 4.
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#666 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:47 am

yulou wrote:
Image



Chalking it up to Chinese construction standards or not, I've never seen wind do something like this.

Debating about the actual windspeeds in Rammasun seems A) premature as we don't have much data available, & B) like a topic for some other thread.
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#667 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:10 am

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china ... 500103.htm

death toll rising from inland flooding and mudslides
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#668 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:12 am

http://hurricanes.einnews.com/article__ ... PUuA%3D%3D

16 dead in Vietnam, also due to inland flooding

Just serves as a reminder of the dangers of inland flooding. It's not just the wind and tidal surge

some of the wiki editors here probably should update the article as it has zero Vietnam deaths
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#669 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 2:40 pm

That is still lower than Dvorak (T6.0-6.5) at the time. I estimate it at 105 kt (pressure 954) at the time of the 962 recording (about 7 miles from the center). It is a slight decrease from previous landfall due to slight deterioration in structure (but not much) after its initial peak around 0800Z. The 892 - which is likely miscalibrated (I used 910 with low confidence) - is the basis for the intensity just before Hainan.

At closest approach to Manila, I estimate the intensity to be about 65-70 kt.
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#670 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:08 pm

the lowest pressure reading i found in the Bicol Region was in Libon, Albay the eye tracked right over this town (15mi northwest of the landfall point). it recorded a min pressure of 960hPa. surrounding weather stations all recorded in the 965-975hPa range. Wind gust from Tabaco, Albay was 185kph (100kt)--and Tabaco is at the right half of the eye (motion-relative). and again, Legazpi with the 962hPa as the eye moved on top.

these station data are from Project NOAH and were giving updates every 15 minutes--even if they did miss the lowest readings, i don't think it would be far from what they actually recorded.

also, i believe these instruments were donated by Japan so I don't doubt their quality. sure, some of them may not have been calibrated properly. however, since all the stations that the eye tracked over reported nearly similar readings (from the environmental MSLP all the way to the minimum pressure), I'm more likely inclined to think that the 960hPa-range readings are reflective of what the actual pressure was.

my guess for landfall is 958hPa and a 95kt 1-min sustained max wind.
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#671 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:28 am

http://www.bangkokpost.com/lite/news/42 ... in-vietnam

27 now dead in Vietnam. Seems the flooding was a bit worse than expected in that country

not sure how to update the wiki page, but seems vietnam is being ignored there
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#672 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:18 am

According to an NDRRMC report, Rammasun resulted in PHP7.458 billion in damages and claiming 97 lives in the Philippines alone. It is one of the costliest (Rank #11) typhoons as of now to ever strike the country.
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#673 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:25 am

46 dead in China now. Seems that most of these were also inland flooding
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Re: WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

#674 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:05 am

reading all of these heartbreaking news...

god bless this disaster stricken areas!
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#675 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:09 pm

What that surface data - assuming a pressure in the 950s - also proves is that:

1) Dvorak isn't always right. If 958 was treated as a central pressure (I went with 954 without knowing those), the landfall intensity would likely come down more at that time (100 kt most likely, although an argument for 95 kt could also be made). That doesn't even come close to a T6.0 intensity (and some sources had it at T6.5 at that point).

2) The P/W relationship differences that are often used in the Atlantic vs. WPAC are quite false. There really isn't much difference, especially in the deep tropics.
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#676 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What that surface data - assuming a pressure in the 950s - also proves is that:

1) Dvorak isn't always right. If 958 was treated as a central pressure (I went with 954 without knowing those), the landfall intensity would likely come down more at that time (100 kt most likely, although an argument for 95 kt could also be made). That doesn't even come close to a T6.0 intensity (and some sources had it at T6.5 at that point).

2) The P/W relationship differences that are often used in the Atlantic vs. WPAC are quite false. There really isn't much difference, especially in the deep tropics.


I contend there is no difference, and the recon in 2008 and 2010 showed that

The P/W relationship was initially generated by using ESTIMATES of the wind at FLIGHT LEVEL. If we used those methods today, it would be dismissed as junk science. However, synoptic environments can lead to differences. A TC in a monsoon trough would have a significantly lower pressure than one under a strong ridge. This also happens in the Atlantic where we have 1000mb TDs in the Caribbean in October
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#677 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:48 pm

yulou wrote:More pics from Haikou.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image




I'm sorry but I find these pictures suspicious. :?: Most of the pics seem to be from an earthquake aftermath and not caused by wind damage. If they were, there would be evident damage on the trees and other smaller structures.
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#678 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 03, 2015 8:49 pm

Rammasun has been upgraded to a 140 kt category 5 in JTWC's posteason analysis.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/2014/2014s-bwp/bwp092014.dat
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