WPAC: MATMO - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Up to 2.0 likely see TD 10W in a few hours.

[euro6208]

No upgrade yet but here's the latest on what's going on. Remains HIGH

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
136.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 170220Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALS
ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN OLDER
170003Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

NWS Guam

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE NORTH OF KOROR WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT. IT HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT TODAY
BUT HAS SHOWN STEADY DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NEITHER YAP
NOR PALAU ARE IN ANY DANGER OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
PALAU AND 1-2 INCHES ON YAP. GAVE YAP ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL HANG OFF TO THE
WEST...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME BACK IN FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN...HIGH
SURF WILL AFFECT WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[euro6208]

10W TEN 140717 0600 10.1N 135.4E WPAC 20 1005

10W is here!

[euro6208]

Forecast to become a typhoon. No graphics out yet...

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING////
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161121ZJUL2014//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 10.1N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 10.5N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.8N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.3N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 12.3N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.5N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.7N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 135.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 161121Z
JUL 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 161130Z).
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

finally, PGTW is back!

[euro6208]

Prognostic Reasoning out first before track?

[euro6208]

Latest...

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
PASSES, INCLUDING A 170844Z SSMIS IMAGE, SUPPORT THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TD 10W IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH
AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE
BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. BY TAU 36, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING PATTERN, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. AROUND
TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR, CAUSING TD 10W TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AND
EVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), FAVORABLE VWS AND
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
EASTERN CHINA, DOMINATING THE STEERING PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE SST AND
IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY, LEADING TO TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AT TAU 24 WITH A SPREAD OF 175 NM BETWEEN
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN TRACKERS. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLOW TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36. DUE TO THE SLOW
AND/OR ERRATIC MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE NORTHWARD TURN, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[wxman57]

Now named TS Matmo by JMA. 35 kts.

TS 1410 (MATMO)
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 17 July 2014
<Analyses at 17/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°25'(10.4°)
E135°30'(135.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)

[hurricanes1234]

0:00 Best Track at 40 knots.

10W MATMO 140718 0000 10.9N 135.0E WPAC 40 993

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow. 95 kts forecast? And also, this storm would spare the Philippines from a direct hit but because this may enhance the Southwest Monsoon bringing rains to the country, it is still possible for flooding. It is forecast by the JMA that this would intensify into a typhoon 2 days from now.

[euro6208]

Tropical Storm Matmo currently being overshadowed by Category 4 Rammasun!

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.9N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 12.7N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 13.6N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.0N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.7N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.9N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 134.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[^tamago^]

GEM 1800Z seems to point to Matmo making landfall in South Korea...

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 11.0N 133.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 133.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 12.7N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.9N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.2N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.5N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.5N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.2N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 133.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH OF
KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
09W (RAMMASUN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS LOW CLOUD LINES STREAMING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BEING OBSCURED BY PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION
THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN OLDER 180831Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING YET BROAD LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EIR LOOP WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE LLCC BEING OBSCURED AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE PGTW AND RJTD
POSITIONAL FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 40 KNOTS
BASED UPON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A SEMI-CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TS MATMO IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WITH
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT LOCATED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. BEYOND TAU
48 THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ALIGNED, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
MODIFY THE STR ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE STR. THIS WILL KEEP TS 10W ON A
STEADY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 120, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS EXPECTED BY DAY 5 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TAIWAN. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY SPLIT WITH THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE,
JGSM AND HWRF CONTINUING TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WHILE THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
SPREAD IN THE MODELS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 181529
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM MATMO (10W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102014
200 AM CHST SAT JUL 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM MATMO MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.2N 133.5E

ABOUT 230 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 275 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR
ABOUT 335 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 775 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATMO WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
133.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM MATMO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 8 MPH. MATMO IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. MATMO IS STILL
FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM MATMO WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.

$$

MCELROY

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It now has that classic band of convection wrapping in from the west typically seen before rapid intensification in past powerful typhoon...

[euro6208]

Aiming for Taiwan...

[euro6208]

Over the highest heat content on Earth...