WPAC: MATMO - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 181628
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
228 AM CHST SAT JUL 19 2014

PMZ161-171-190600-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
228 AM CHST SAT JUL 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM MATMO SLOWLY LIFTING FARTHER AWAY FROM PALAU...

TROPICAL STORM MATMO IS CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES NORTH OF KOROR NEAR
11N134E. CONVERGING MONSOONAL WINDS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF MATMO ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND WESTERN YAP STATE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS MATMO
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH CAN STILL
OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MUDSLIDES HAS DIMINISHED.

SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT
ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND WESTERN YAP STATE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS SURF WILL ALSO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WHPQ40 PGUM FOR MORE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO STAY INFORMED ON THE HAZARDOUS SEA AND SURF CONDITIONS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LISTEN TO UPDATES FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

THIS IS THE LAST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM MATMO. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
FZPQ52 PGUM FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

Latest GFS shows steady strengthening and bottoming out to 943 mb before taiwan landfall...

[cycloneye]

JTWC 21:00 UTC track more closer to Hong Kong and moves just south of Taiwan.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS LOW CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS
BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
MICROWAVE EYE IN A 181615Z TRMM PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A SEMI-CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH IS
MOMENTARILY CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10W WILL BEGIN TRACKING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS
TAIWAN. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO INCREASE
AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. THESE, PLUS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE STR WILL RE-BUILD AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSAGE AND CAUSE TS MATMO TO REVERT TO A FLATTER NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND
PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AFTER
THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE LUZON STRAIT. THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO
WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPER AND CAUSE A
GREATER IMPACT ON THE STR. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, TS 09W WILL TRACK A LOT
MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS OKINAWA AFTER TAU 72. THIS SCENARIO IS
REFLECTED BY A MINORITY OF THE MODELS INCLUDING JENS, JGSM AND COTC.
THE MAJORITY REMAINS WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND FAVORS THE NORTHWEST TRACK. IN VIEW OF THE BIFURCATION IN THE
NUMERIC MODELS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HELD GUARDEDLY AT HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

microwave eye!!! this must be upgraded into a typhoon soon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I was not expecting this, microwave eye! The storm looks very impressive and very organized for a tropical storm. Impressive intensification rate forecast by the JMA, BTW. Could this be stronger than Rammasun and Neoguri?

TS 1410 (MATMO)
Issued at 22:05 UTC, 18 July 2014

<Analyses at 18/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°05'(11.1°)
E131°55'(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 19/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 20/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E127°25'(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 21/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)

[mrbagyo]

I was not expecting this, microwave eye! The storm looks very impressive and very organized for a tropical storm. Impressive intensification rate forecast by the JMA, BTW. Could this be stronger than Rammasun and Neoguri

Once it pop its eye, this will go ballistic. I remember Jelawat (2012) also having this kind of behavior.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I was not expecting this, microwave eye! The storm looks very impressive and very organized for a tropical storm. Impressive intensification rate forecast by the JMA, BTW. Could this be stronger than Rammasun and Neoguri

Once it pop its eye, this will go ballistic. I remember Jelawat (2012) also having this kind of behavior.

Yeah, I agree. This DOES REMIND me of Jelawat 2012 which also moved very slowly before moving steadily NNW. Also, Jelawat brought us very wet and soggy weather, and I guess Matmo can do the same. Did Jelawat have a rainband over the western periphery, like Matmo?

[mrbagyo]

Yeah, I agree. This DOES REMIND me of Jelawat 2012 which also moved very slowly before moving steadily NNW. Also, Jelawat brought us very wet and soggy weather, and I guess Matmo can do the same. Did Jelawat have a rainband over the western periphery, like Matmo?

yes it has, during it's formative stage...
Jelawat@ 40 knots


I think a Northern Luzon Landfall is very probable??

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Look at that banding and outflow.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, the JTWC intensity forecast is very conservative. JMA is forecasting a typhoon roughly equivalent to a category 3-4 in their scale. This looks more impressive and organized than when Rammasun was a tropical storm, and that this is already developing an eye.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Matmo is intensifying quickly. JTWC Best Track now has Matmo at 55 knots.

10W MATMO 140719 0000 10.8N 131.3E WPAC 55 982

And the JMA also upgraded Matmo to a Severe Tropical Storm, having roughly the same intensity estimate with the JTWC.

STS 1410 (MATMO)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 19 July 2014

<Analyses at 19/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°20'(11.3°)
E131°00'(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

[dexterlabio]

It should have started moving more poleward yesterday. Even an abrupt NNW turn at this moment will not be able to keep the rain bands away from the Philippines. It also looks to be tapping a lot of moisture from the SW monsoon.



If I were in Visayas and Bicol and this storm keeps moving on this track, I'd be sweating bullets...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 10.8N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 12.6N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.9N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.6N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.0N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 131.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It should have started moving more poleward yesterday. Even an abrupt NNW turn at this moment will not be able to keep the rain bands away from the Philippines. It also looks to be tapping a lot of moisture from the SW monsoon.



If I were in Visayas and Bicol and this storm keeps moving on this track, I'd be sweating bullets...

This happened also during Jelawat 2012. Cebu had heavy rain and an overall very cloudy weather and because Matmo is closer to my location than Jelawat, then maybe Matmo would bring even more rain. I just hope it does not flood.

[Alyono]

starting to wonder if this is not yet another case of the models indicating too much of a northward motion in the WPAC. Starting to wonder if this will in fact clear the Philippines

[dexterlabio]

This happened also during Jelawat 2012. Cebu had heavy rain and an overall very cloudy weather and because Matmo is closer to my location than Jelawat, then maybe Matmo would bring even more rain. I just hope it does not flood.

The STR during Jelawat was less pronounced that it is today, I am not sure if the models are under/overestimating its strength now. This is one reason why your area should be keeping an eye on this... Also, Jelawat occurred past the peak of the SW monsoon season. Matmo could be bringing much more rain for the Philippines...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This happened also during Jelawat 2012. Cebu had heavy rain and an overall very cloudy weather and because Matmo is closer to my location than Jelawat, then maybe Matmo would bring even more rain. I just hope it does not flood.

The STR during Jelawat was less pronounced that it is today, I am not sure if the models are under/overestimating its strength now. This is one reason why your area should be keeping an eye on this... Also, Jelawat occurred past the peak of the SW monsoon season. Matmo could be bringing much more rain for the Philippines...

They are underestimating the intensity. It is undergoing an RI phase right now.

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 03:00z warning.

WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A DIMPLE FEATURE -
PRECURSOR TO THE FORMATION OF AN EYE - AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
FURTHER DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10W WILL BEGIN TRACKING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS JAPAN WEAKENS THE STR. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. THESE,
PLUS PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
WILL PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS
THE CYCLONE HEADS TOWARD TAIWAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS MATMO WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AS THE STR REMAINS SOLID, UNPERTURBED BY A SECONDARY,
ALBEIT WEAKER, TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF TAIWAN AND THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 85 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT
OUTLIERS.//

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We should continue to see continued steady intensification over the next day since Matmo is under the influence of moderate northeasterly shear (via a displaced anticyclone). The GFS shows the upper-air pattern becoming much more conducive to rapid intensification thereafter (with dual outflow channels...something I didn't see with Rammasun or Neoguri), all while the storm tracks over SSTs of 29-30C. The 03z advisory forecast peak of 105kt is a step in the right direction, but I think this storm ends up becoming far stronger than that at peak.